VGT Return RateMy current understanding of 7709: It's not that SK Hynix/storage fundamentals suddenly deteriorated, but that the trading structure is problematic.
The overall market is not the core issue. SPY dipped slightly in night trading, QQQ was only a bit weaker, but SOXX/SMH were significantly weaker, with MU and SNDK falling even more in night trading. This indicates funds are concentrated in cutting high-beta semiconductor/storage positions.7709 is a 2x leveraged product, not the underlying stock. Good fundamentals of the underlying stock do not mean the 2x ETF is suitable for mindlessly taking a heavy position. Path volatility, leverage decay, premium/discount, and turnover stampede all make it harder to hold than the underlying.The ADR listing is not purely positive in the short term. It may bring attention, but it could also bring supply pressure and capital diversion. Before the event materializes, the market will first kill the crowded expectations.The rebound from 82 today indicates there is support, but it does not equal a confirmed reversal. The real signals I will watch for are: MU/SNDK no longer hitting new lows in night trading, SOXX/SMH stopping their decline, 7709 not continuing to fall after heavy volume, and a decent capital reaction after the ADR pricing is finalized.Therefore, my conclusion: Being bullish on the fundamentals is understandable, but 7709 here is more suitable for small-position trial/observation, not for heavily leveraged hard buying. There are opportunities in panic, but the opportunities and risks of 2x leverage are amplified together.
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