First Fellow

We are in one of the strongest bull markets we have seen in a while. Opportunities are everywhere.

The quickest way to lose your edge right now is greed. Do not overstay your welcome on a swing trade and give back your gains. Know the difference: "buy and hold" is a long term position, but purely technical setups based on EMAs or other indicators are swings. They are short term by nature.

When we see ideas like $TWLO, $NVDA, $FTNT, $FSLR, and $MRVL, we have to participate because the setups are incredible. But when your technical levels hit, book the profits and move on to the next one. As simple!

Around 15 years ago when my first startup failed due to putting too many ideas in the business, my mentor taught me about Opportunity cost. 

Take a Rolex Submariner for example. The true cost is not just the $10,000 retail price. The opportunity cost is the massive return you give up by not putting that $10K into a prime breakout setup on a ticker like $NVDA or $AAPL. 

As traders, we have to look at our buying power the exact same way.

You do not need to be in every single trade. In swing trading identify where the opportunity is and quickly adjust positions to catch the best possible trades instead of dwelling on just one idea. 

Analyze the board, pick the absolute best risk to reward setups, and leave the rest alone. Cash is a powerful position.

Berkshire buys $AAPL and you buy $AAPL. The two are not the same.

Because, Buffett and co. aren't buying stocks. They're buying businesses with a good moat and great FCF. If you're an investor always buy the business, not just the stock symbol. 

$AXP | $GOOGL | $KO

I am going through my scans for the next 30 minutes. If you have any chart requests, drop the tickers below and I will take a look.

Once I am done, I will post my top 3 favorite setups from today's list. Let's see what is building a clean base.

#SwingTrading $SPY $QQQ $IWM

$RSP is breaking out on a weekly candle.

Do you know what this actually means? $SPY only tells us a one dimensional picture because it is completely dominated by the top 10 mega caps like $AAPL $NVDA $GOOGL etc. 

The equal weight chart clearing resistance proves this rally is finally widening out to the rest of the market, not just AI names. 

Look at where capital is flowing right now:

Tech & AI: Semi names like $AMD and $AVGO are keeping the AI names trend intact.
Non-AI & Cyclicals: Strong setups emerging into industrials and materials like $AA, $CAT and $FCX.

Start looking for clean setups in the other 450 stocks where you can actually define your risk. AI names are getting extended and exhausted.

For people who want to understand how institutional accumulation looks, check out these volume candles.

Some names with massive accumulation structures: $WDC $STX $UMC $MRVL $BB $AVT

What is the playbook here? When a market pullback happens, you wait for these specific names to retest the 50ma.

$MSFT is fundamentally cheap right now.

Look at the Q3 numbers. Cloud revenue is $54.5 billion growing 29% YoY. Azure growth is back up to 40%. The market panicked over the $190 billion capex guidance for AI infrastructure. That capex is a risk these guys can afford, and $META has a similar story. As usual, it is an overreaction.  

That upfront investment is backing a massive $627 billion contract backlog. This is a great long term opportunity and mathematically cheap right here.  

I would love to know if anyone has a bear case that actually makes sense against this growth rate.

PT: $600

$MU     went from $500B to $1T in ~50 sessions. 
$NVDA went from $500B to $1T in ~250 sessions.

The parabolic move grabs all the attention, but the slower, steady expansion is always easier, safer and wiser to trade.

This tweet is only for folks who don't know why Micron is important. If you already understand, skip this tweet.

We all obsess over Micron ($MU) technicals, earnings, and cheap PEGs. But have you ever stopped to ask why memory suddenly became as valuable as oil?

I will try to explain in simple terms. 

Think about what happens when you type a prompt into ChatGPT or Gemini.

The AI doesn't just instantly know the answer. To generate a single sentence, it has to instantly look up billions of variables across its entire AI model data. Right?

If that data is sitting on standard storage hardware like $WDC, $STX, or $SNDK drives far away in an AI data center like $APLD, $NBIS, or $IREN, it takes too long to travel to the processing chip. The fast $NVDA processor chip ends up idling, completely wasted, waiting for the data to arrive. This creates a massive speed bottleneck.

High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) solves this by placing a super fast data reservoir directly inside the chip package right next to the processor. There is no travel distance and no delay.

When you hit enter on a prompt, advanced memory feeds those billions of data points into the processor instantly. Without Micron's memory physically attached to the chip, the most powerful AI processors in the world are completely paralyzed.

If there are still people who have doubts about Microns prominence or says it's "overrated" and"cyclical", I would assume they may never understand what it is.

$CLS is just waiting in the queue on the runway. We're just waiting for all the $DELL's, $BE's and $LITE's to be done with their run. Once the clearance comes from ATC this will take off, nice & easy. 

PT: 450+ 

Oil futures doesn't $CL_F doesn't exactly have a good look especially with the +ve news market is hearing this weekend. 

Remember, market hates uncertainty and that's being cleared up now. I don't think anything will happen either with Fifa World Cup around the corner, as simple. In other words, good news for stocks. 

$XLE | $XOM | $SPY | $QQQ | $IWM

Easy to get blinded by the SpaceX IPO halo effect, but the multiples on $RKLB $LUNR $ASTS $YSS $FLY etc. are far from reality. 

Space is highly uncertain and burns extreme capital. Enjoy the trend, but history tells us the market doesn't reward these speculative valuations. 

$CAT Category: A+

This one is an extremely high probable setup. Unless something really breaks the momentum of the market, breakout looks imminent. 

PT: 1000+ 

$POWL dropped a sizeable % today. For anyone in this trade, the pink line at 262 has to hold. If it closes below 260-259, there is a high probability this is heading to 50ma at 235. 

$AAOI with a much needed breather candle. An entry around 125-120 offers a good R/R. On the other hand lets say it decides to go to YTD Avwap around 100, I am adding full intended position. That's like adding $WDC around 200 or $MU around 350, technical levels not fundamentals. 

$NAMO at 14, $NYMO at 2. 

It's uncanny how these breadth indicators are far from Overbought conditions. In other words, there is a lot of juice or 'dry powder' left. For new traders, don't chase gap-ups like $AMD, $INTC, $MU, $SNDK, $WDC, etc. There are still good opportunities, identify them, add to your Watchlist and wait for an entry. That's how you make money. Don't chase!

Our elders always gave the classic advice, Just buy and hold the companies you interact with in your daily life.

The strategy makes perfect sense when you look at the portfolio and see names like $AAPL, $COST, $WMT,  $NOW, etc. It feels relatable.

But then when I look deeper into the account and find heavy positions in $ASML, $PM, $GEV. 

It turns out my daily routine apparently involves stepping away from the phone, checking on industrial lithography machines, monitoring utility scale grid electrification, and all of this while I smoke.

I didn't know there is an ETF called $EUV for Photonics. They thought they can pull a $DRAM after building one at historically high valuations! A bit late in the game? 

Some of the holdings: $COHR $GLW $LITE $CIEN $TSM $LRCX 