The bearish headline that OpenAI's ARR went from 70bn to 50bn triggered a global pullback in AI plays.

1) The 70bn vs 50bn gap mostly reflects definitional differences rather than a real shortfall. Many leading model vendors periodically disclose ARR, but methodology matters — gross vs net revenue, annualizing a 28-day avg x12 vs a single recent week x52, etc.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) reported Q4 FY2026 results for the period ended Jun after the U.S. market close on Jul 30. In short, the AI tide has swung back in its favor, and Microsoft can finally breathe easier.

1) As the key monetization driver for its AI investment, Azure re-accelerated to +43% YoY this quarter (ex-FX the same), vs. more bullish previews at 40–42%. This topped expectations.

More importantly, cc growth guidance for next quarter is 45%, implying further acceleration at Azure. Codex has been catching up fast lately...

Below is Dolphin Research's compiled $Microsoft(MSFT.US) FY26 Q4 earnings call Trans. I. Core financial highlights recap.

1. Shareholder returns: returned $10.2 bn to shareholders this quarter via dividends and buybacks. For the full fiscal year, total shareholder returns exceeded $43.0 bn.

2. FY27 Q1 guide: total revenue of $89.85–90.95 bn (+16–17% YoY). COGS of $29.6–29.8 bn.

In Dolphin Research's earlier piece 'AMZN's AI Misfire: Can It Mount a Comeback?', we examined AWS's AI buildout from several angles.

Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of $Microsoft(MSFT.US) FY26Q3 earnings call.

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) reported FY26 Q3 (quarter ended Mar) after the US close on Apr 30. Overall, results were steady, with most headline metrics beating expectations but lacking a true standout.

1) Azure re-accelerated, but without surprises. Azure revenue grew 40% YoY; ex-FX growth was 39%, a 100bps acceleration QoQ.

The re-acceleration is a healthy sign. That said, versus AWS and GCP's stronger pickup this quarter, it was not particularly eye-catching...

Is North America's power shortage a near- to mid-term supply-demand mismatch? Or a long-term structural issue?

Below is Dolphin Research's FY26 Q2 earnings call Trans for $Microsoft(MSFT.US). For our earnings take, see 'Seasoned Microsoft: Stepping Back to Leap Higher?'.

In U.S. after-hours on Jan 29 Beijing time, Microsoft reported FY26 Q2 results for the quarter ended Dec. Overall, total revenue, GP and OP all came in above Bloomberg consensus and ahead of prior guidance. That said, capex continued to surge while Azure growth decelerated, likely reigniting concerns about the ROI of that spend and doubts over Microsoft's lead in the AI race...

In our prior piece 'AI's Original Sin: Is NVIDIA the stimulant AI can’t quit?', Dolphin Research argued that the key shift for the AI supply chain in 2025 is the extreme upstream capture of value, which has thrown the system out of balance. This imbalance is reshaping incentives and risk-taking across the stack.

With FOMO running high, AI spend keeps climbing, while rivalry among core players has become more explicit. Capital allocations are increasingly concentrated at the top of the chain.

As the internet enters the AI era, regardless of how shifting inputs reshape bargaining power along the value chain, one ultimate question remains. After front-loaded investment in heavy capex, deep tech, and top talent with an approx. five-year depreciation cycle, is this ultimately a bubble?