Dolphin Research
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Thinking with soul, research with attitude
Dolphin Research
Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of Walmart's FY2027 Q1 earnings call. For our take on the results, please see 'Walmart: Rising oil prices — can the retail king still hold up?'
Revenue beat expectations.
However, surging fuel costs weighed on margins.Below is Dolphin Research's transcript of $NetEase(NTES.US) $NTES-S(09999.HK) 1Q26 earnings call.
For our earnings take, see 'NetEase: Making money through the lull; the evergreen franchise keeps gaining value'.I. Key results recap. 1) Shareholder returns. The BOD approved a 1Q26 cash dividend of $0.144 per ordinary share. As of Mar 31, 2026, under the $5bn share repurchase plan, the company had bought back approx. 23.2 mn shares for about $2.1bn...For FY2026, the full-year financial target is positive non-GAAP OP. The goal is to deliver a profit on a non-GAAP operating basis.
$NetEase(NTES.US) released its Q1 2026 results after the Hong Kong close on May 21 (Beijing time).
Results were above expectations, with the upside driven by game revenue, GPM, and tight opex discipline. Details: 1) Game revenue beat conservative Street expectations. Q1 game revenue (ex-CC Live) was RMB 25.1bn (+7% YoY), above consensus. The Street had modeled sub-5% growth given no new titles this quarter and a high base last year...The premium ES8 saw strong volume.
This effectively underpinned GPM.Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of the FY26 Q1 earnings call for $Vipshops(VIPS.US).
For our earnings take, please see 'Vipshop: Profit Without Topline Growth, but 2Q Could Be a Hurdle'. I. Key financial takeaways recap. 1) Shareholder returns: the company reiterates its 2026 shareholder return plan to return a cumulative amount approx. 75% of FY25 non-GAAP net income via dividends and buybacks. It paid about $300 mn as the annual dividend in Apr, with the remaining authorization to be executed over subsequent quarters. FCF remains ample...Domestic lean, curated e-com platform -- $Vipshops(VIPS.US) -- released its Q1 2026 results on the evening of May 21. Overall, the print was solid, modestly beating a low bar, with GMV and GPM ahead of expectations.
Less encouraging, management guided Q2 revenue growth back to -5% to 0%, implying a return to negative growth. That said, Q2 softness vs. Q1 is now sector consensus, so this is not a surprise.1) Core operating metric — GMV rose nearly 9% YoY. That was a sharp improvement from 0.6% last quarter and topped the street's ~5% expectation...WMT 1Q27 First Take: On an absolute basis, results were solid — total revenue of $177.8bn (+7.3% YoY; cc +5.9%), beating the $174.8bn consensus.
However, fuel costs weighed on profitability, with OI up only 5%, lagging top-line growth. Full-year guidance was left unchanged and not revised up, which is a letdown for some investors given the 45x+ multiple for an 'omni-fulfillment + high-margin tech services' retail platform. Pre-mkt the stock fell ~2–3%, essentially pricing in a 'good, not great' print.
In detail:
1) Walmart U.S.: Volume acceleration is the highlight. Comps rose 4.1% (vs. 4% est.), a modest beat. More importantly, mix improved — transactions accelerated to +3.0% vs. +1.6% a year ago, while average ticket slowed to +1.1% from +2.8%, signaling a shift from price-led to traffic-led growth, a higher-quality trajectory.
E-comm grew 26%. Walmart Connect (ex VIZIO) +44%, Marketplace nearly +50% (best in 10 qtrs), showing the high-margin flywheel is still speeding up across the board. GM share hit a 5-year high, and penetration into higher-income households continues.
2) Sam's U.S.: Transaction surge, but ticket turned negative. Comps (ex fuel) +3.9%, with transactions +6.2% accelerating further, while average ticket -2.2% as mix shifted to lower-price, higher-frequency grocery and Member's Mark private-label substitution. E-comm +23%.
But OI grew only 1.2%, indicating higher fulfillment costs meaningfully constrained profit flow-through.
3) Walmart Intl.: China Sam's remains the brightest spot. By region, China grew 22.3% YoY, with Sam's still the primary growth engine. Transactions maintained double-digit growth and CNY performance was exceptionally strong, suggesting China Sam's remains in a triple upcycle of store expansion, strong same-store growth, and rising digital penetration.
Walmex (Mexico & C. America) grew 4.1% YoY, with growth slowing QoQ, likely dragged by 3P.
4) GP & OI: Ads help, fuel hurts. GPM was 25.1%, up 20bps YoY, driven mainly by advertising and category mix. On the expense side, higher fuel costs curtailed profit expansion (fuel shaved 250bps from OI growth).
Ex-fuel, underlying profit leverage looks decent.
5) Guide: No FY raise, but Q2 implies acceleration. Full-year guide unchanged (sales cc +3.5–4.5%, Adj. OI cc +6–8%). With Q2 Adj. OI guided to +7–10% cc, notably faster than Q1’s +5.1%, fuel headwinds are implied to ease sequentially. $Walmart(WMT.US)
Nio 1Q26 First Take: overall a solid print. Revenue came in slightly below expectations, but the company maintained a high GPM in a seasonally weak quarter, and the net loss was narrower than expected.
More important than the print is the Q2 guide. With two key models — ES9 and ONVO L80 — set to start deliveries in May, the upbeat volume and revenue outlook implies healthy order intake for both.
In detail:
① Vehicle revenue was RMB 22.8bn, just shy of the RMB 23.1bn consensus. The shortfall was mainly due to an ASP of RMB 273k vs. the RMB 277k expected, though ASP still rose by RMB 20k QoQ as the high-priced ES8 accounted for over half of the mix in Q1.
② Vehicle GPM was 18.8%. Despite weaker scale benefits and higher procurement costs, margin held at a high level and improved 70 bps QoQ, beating the 18.2% market view and the company’s prior guide for a flat QoQ margin, driven by an upward shift in mix that offset cost headwinds.
③ Opex was well controlled, with R&D cut to under RMB 2bn, mainly due to front-loaded model development and cost-down initiatives. Nio delivered OP of -RMB 300mn, better than the -RMB 1bn loss the market expected.
The Q2 outlook is the key and again above expectations:
① Delivery guidance is 110k–115k, ahead of the 106k consensus. With only 29k delivered in Mar, this implies average monthly deliveries of 40k–43k in May/Jun. As ES8 lead times shortened from 4–5 weeks in Mar to 2–4 weeks in Apr and backlog eased, the incremental upside likely comes from ES9 and ONVO L80, indicating solid orders and the ability to ramp deliveries in line with intake.
② Total revenue guidance of RMB 32.8bn–34.4bn also tops the RMB 30.0bn consensus, with both volume and ASP above market assumptions. The guide implies Q2 vehicle ASP around RMB 270k, broadly flat QoQ.
Given ES8’s Q1 mix already reached 54% and its backlog and deliveries are trending down, Q2’s high ASP is likely backfilled by the higher-priced ES9, reflecting management’s confidence in ES9 monthly run-rate. If ES9 can reach a steady 5k+ units per month, Nio’s GPM should stay elevated, with potential room for further upside. $NIO Inc(NIO.US) $NIO-SW(09866.HK)
NetEase 1Q26 First Take. Q1 results beat, with upside vs. Street driven by game revenue, GPM, and tight opex control.
(1) Game revenue beat. The market had expected sub-5% growth given no new launches this quarter and a tough base last year, but NetEase delivered 7% growth. Drivers included the 'Fantasy Westward Journey' PC 'Changyou' servers, the overseas rollout of 'Where Winds Meet', and operational recovery in 'Identity V' and 'Eggy Party'.
Deferred revenue at Q1-end rose 22% YoY, topping the 17% widely modeled by the Street. By Dolphin Research estimates, gross billings grew 18% QoQ; while short of last year's exceptional Q1 surge, it outperformed typical seasonal patterns.
Q2 will still face a high base. From H2, the mobile pipeline adds heavyweight launches, with '遗忘之海' in Q3 (Sell-side est. full-year all-platform billings of RMB 3–5bn) and '无限大' in late Q4 or early next year (Sell-side est. RMB 10bn), which should support sequential acceleration in game revenue.
(2) GPM expanded sharply, the quarter's biggest highlight in our view. Q1 GPM reached 69.4%, up over 500bps YoY and QoQ, driven by games and live streaming. Game-related GPM rose to 75%, up 600bps YoY.
Key drivers included a higher mix from self-developed, high-margin PC titles this quarter and lower channel fees, aided by steering users to top up on the official website and lower rev-share rates at app stores like Apple. This aligns with the margin expansion logic the market has been anticipating.
(3) Personnel expense optimization. Opex was tightly managed in Q1, with R&D growing slowly, and S&M down QoQ on normal seasonality. G&A fell 33% YoY.
G&A has been shrinking for two years; from an already lean base, the further step-down suggests meaningful headcount optimization or comp adjustments in Q1. SBC tells a similar story: despite NetEase's share price being up ~10% YoY, SBC expense nearly halved YoY.
News also surfaced at quarter-end of significant cuts to outsourced teams. These savings likely were not fully reflected in Q1, and details warrant attention on the call.
(4) Buybacks up; overall shareholder returns are modest. The quarter's declared dividend is $0.144 per share ($0.72 per ADS), totaling $460mn, a 30% payout, roughly stable. NetEase repurchased $127mn in Q1, already above the total for last year; management typically paces buybacks with market cap swings, and $2.9bn remains authorized (three-year term).
Annualizing Q1 dividends plus buybacks implies ~$2.35bn in full-year shareholder returns, about 3%–4% of the $74bn market cap as of yesterday's close, which is not high. $NTES-S(09999.HK) $NetEase(NTES.US)
VIPS 1Q26 First Take: a solid quarter with a modest beat vs the Street. GMV growth and a higher GPM were the key positives. Guidance for 2Q revenue at -5% to 0% puts growth back into negative territory, though a softer 2Q vs 1Q across e-comm is broadly expected.
In detail:
1) GMV rose nearly 9% YoY, beating Bloomberg consensus of ~5%, and improved materially from roughly flat QoQ in the prior quarter. On the flip side, order volume grew about 3% YoY and quarterly active users were flat. Growth therefore remained primarily driven by higher AOV.
2) Total revenue grew 1.2% YoY, at the low end of prior guidance and broadly in line with conservative Street expectations, as GMV strength did not translate to revenue. Based on past patterns and the fact that other revenue grew far faster than self-operated retail revenue (+14% vs +0.2%), it is reasonable to infer a higher return rate and faster growth in 3P GMV (incl. shanshan).
3) With higher AOV and a larger mix of non-self-operated retail revenue, GPM expanded by 120bps, well above market expectations. This was the biggest positive surprise this quarter.
4) Opex ticked up, rising 3.6% YoY, outpacing revenue and above market expectations. The increase was driven mainly by fulfillment expenses, up 8% and tied to volume, while other costs were flat to down.
5) While opex ate into part of the GPM beat, OP came in near 2.5bn, above the Street at about 2.3bn, up nearly 9% YoY. Profit growth was solid. $Vipshops(VIPS.US)
0521 | Dolphin Research Focus: Stock 1, $SpaceX(SpaceX.NA). SpaceX has formally filed an S-1 with the SEC to list on Nasdaq (ticker SPCX).
The implied valuation range is $1.75–2.0tn, and the deal could raise up to $75bn, potentially the largest IPO on record. Q1 2026 revenue was $4.69bn, with a net loss of $4.28bn.
Its AI biz remains in the investment phase. The company will adopt a dual-class share structure, with Elon Musk holding Class B shares...
Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) FY27 Q1 earnings call.
For the earnings analysis, please see 'NVIDIA: Rising competition, shifting AI bottlenecks — can even a market darling stumble a bit?'I. Core takeaways from the earnings report
1) Shareholder returns: the company returned a record $20bn to shareholders this quarter. The quarterly dividend was raised to $0.25 per share from $0.01, and an additional $80bn share repurchase authorization was approved.NVDA released FY2027 Q1 results after the US close in the early hours of May 21, 2026 Beijing time (quarter ended Apr 2026). 1) Core operating metrics: $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) delivered revenue of $81.6bn, beating the raised buy-side estimates ($78–80bn).
QoQ revenue increased by $13.5bn, driven almost entirely by the Data Center segment as Blackwell moved into volume production.GPM was 74.9%, down 10bps QoQ...NVDA 1Q26 First Take: Results were solid. Revenue rose $13.5bn QoQ, largely driven by Data Center as Blackwell scaled to mass production. GPM held around 75%.
The company streamlined reporting and will disclose only Data Center and Edge Computing from this quarter, retiring separate lines for Gaming and Auto, as Data Center now exceeds 90% of total revenue. For next quarter, it guides revenue to $91.0bn (+/-2%), implying a $9.4bn QoQ increase. This tops the raised buy-side bar ($88–90bn).
The current workhorses are B300/GB300. With Rubin launching in 2H, growth should remain strong.
At GTC, Jensen Huang raised the outlook for AI, projecting cumulative 2025–2027 Data Center revenue of $1tn (vs $500bn at last year's GTC). Investors are not concerned about FY27–FY28. As such, a modest beat this quarter is unlikely to move the stock.
The battleground among AI majors has shifted. It used to be about who could stand up 10k‑GPU clusters to train LLMs; now it is about 'cost per million tokens' and the response speed of long‑context multimodal agents.
NVDA's compute lead is being eroded. Beyond this quarter's print and guide, investors are more focused on AI chip competition, the impact of customers' in‑house designs, and GPM after 2026.
With more hyperscalers moving to in‑house chips, the phase of major multiple expansion is likely over. Share‑price upside will hinge on EPS growth. Any upside surprise from Rubin would more likely lift the stock via earnings rather than further re‑rating; more to come in Dolphin Research's follow‑up commentary and Trans.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)Yesterday, the shares recorded in Hong Kong's CCASS for $Bilibili(BILI.US) rose from 282mn to 308mn, a net add of 26.29mn.
Typically, major shareholder sell-downs, placements/pledges, or equity award vesting result in paper certificates being moved into CCASS to facilitate secondary or block trades. This transfer-in is sizable, equal to 6.3% of Bilibili's total shares outstanding.
If the shares came from a single holder, Tencent is the most likely source given current ownership.
Post-trim, Tencent's stake would drop from 10.5% to 4.2%, raising nearly $500mn.
This is somewhat unexpected to Dolphin Research.
Tencent does not lack that $500mn, and if used for buybacks, at the current ~HK$500mn pace it would only cover a few days. Besides, Bilibili still has strategic value as a broad entertainment and AI distribution channel.
On the other hand, if Tencent is focused even on proceeds from trimming Bilibili, could other seemingly more 'valuable' assets also be up for sale?
In the coming days, Dolphin Research will revisit $TENCENT(00700.HK)'s portfolio to flag assets with higher disposal risk, and will re-run its cash-flow analysis to size this year's budget for capex and buybacks.
For Bilibili, near term it will need to digest negative sentiment and ease pressure from a rich valuation.
But the trajectory of marginal fundamental improvement from 2H should remain intact.Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of $Kanzhun(BZ.US) 1Q26 earnings call. For the earnings analysis, see 'Kanzhun: The once small-but-refined recruiting platform is now fully mature.' Key takeaways.
1) Q2 outlook: total revenue guided to RMB 2.38-2.42bn (+13.2%-15.1% YoY), well above Q1's 7.6%. Mgmt expects full-year revenue growth to outpace Q1, with cash billings to grow at least double-digit YoY. 2) Capital return: over $200mn of shares repurchased YTD...
$Kanzhun(BZ.US) Q1 results were broadly in line. Profit slightly beat as G&A tightened.
With hyper-growth behind it and a tougher operating environment, revenue is unlikely to regain prior growth rates. Until overseas expansion reaches scale, the main near-term lever is to keep unlocking operating leverage.Specifically: 1) Multiple factors slowed billings. Q1 billings rose 10% YoY, within guidance but slower vs. last quarter. The external environment is one reason...Kanzhun 1Q26 First Take: Q1 results were broadly in line, with a small profit beat on tighter G&A. Core OP was approx. RMB 600 mn (+44% YoY).
Mgmt guides Q2 revenue growth of 14%, an acceleration vs. Q1. Some demand shifted from Q1 to Q2 due to an extended CNY and timing effects, and Sensor Tower data show a sharp rebound post-holiday return to work.
Looking at Q1 and Q2 together, 1H growth is about 11%, roughly flat vs. the same period last year. While not slowing, last year’s base was low, so momentum is best described as stable.
Mgmt has guided ~10% growth over the next two years, constrained by the domestic environment, so more upside on the top line hinges on market expansion. In Hong Kong, penetration is progressing well: the OfferToday platform ranks No.1 by DAU among mainstream recruiting apps and No.2 by MAU. On current trends, it is closing in on JobsDB.
That said, Hong Kong is a small market, so the fastest way to sustain earnings is self-help via cost discipline. With R&D already small, cuts in S&M deliver more leverage. However, the joint sponsorship fee for the World Cup this year (approx. RMB 200 mn) and last year’s ongoing S&M reductions mean near-term tightening will mainly come from G&A, which also drove the Q1 profit beat.
The company still expects adj. OPM to improve this year, albeit by less than the step-up in 2025. Beyond maintaining growth, mgmt also raised the buyback authorization last quarter to support the stock. $Kanzhun(BZ.US) $BOSS ZHIPIN-W(02076.HK)
0520 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Stock pick 1: $BABA-W(09988.HK) unveiled its in-house AI chip 'Zhenwu' M890 at the recent Alibaba Cloud Summit, offering 3x the prior-gen performance and 144GB of VRAM. It also introduced a 128-card ultra-node server and plans to roll out V900 in 2027.
This high-spec, self-developed compute chip is a major step by a domestic internet platform toward autonomy at the compute infrastructure layer. It should materially reduce reliance on overseas high-end chips for enterprise-grade compute workloads...Below is Dolphin Research's summary of $KE(BEKE.US) FY26 Q1 earnings call. For our take on the results, see 'BEKE: Real turn or another 'fake' bounce?'.
I. Key highlights — 1) Shareholder returns: repurchased approx. $195 mn in the quarter (+~40% YoY). Since the buyback program launched in Sep 2022, total spend reached approx. $2.7 bn, with repurchased shares equal to about 1% of total shares outstanding at end-2025. As of end-Q1 ...China’s leading property services platform — $KE(BEKE.US) — released its 2026 Q1 results pre-mkt on May 19. Overall, while the housing market has begun to find a floor, it is still facing headwinds.
With adjustments in the home improvement and rental units, revenue remained sharply down YoY. That said, proactive headcount rationalization, higher GPM, and disciplined opex drove earnings that beat by a wide margin.
Specifically: 1) Existing-home transactions are starting to bottom. Supported by a series of backstop measures announced by top-tier cities in Feb–Mar (easing purchase curbs and raising housing provident fund loan caps), the core existing-home brokerage business showed signs of bottoming and stabilizing this quarter...
Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of $Bilibili(BILI.US) 1Q26 earnings call. For our earnings take, cf. 'Bilibili: A False Alarm on Stake Sale, Margin Erosion? Games to the Rescue'.
1) Shareholder returns: the $200mn share repurchase has been fully executed as of today, with 9.3mn shares bought back. The BOD is considering authorizing a new buyback program in due course.2) Q2 and full-year outlook: Q2 ad revenue is expected to sustain rapid growth, driven by AI initiatives. GPM should improve steadily...Q2 total revenue is expected at RMB 850–900 mn.
LiDAR shipments are estimated at ~650k units.