Dolphin Research
Thinking with soul, research with attitude
Thinking with soul, research with attitude
Dolphin Research
On the surface, it sells fried chicken and pizza. In essence, it sells a hard-to-replicate operating system built for low cost, high efficiency, and high repeat purchase.
SpaceX is making its costliest bet ever
0630 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) The National Bureau of Statistics reported this morning that Jun manufacturing PMI was 50.3, up 30bps MoM and back in expansion.
The production index printed 51.4 and new orders 51.2, both improving.Sentiment recovered among large and mid-sized firms, with high-tech manufacturing PMI leading at 53.5.
Only small and micro firms remained in contraction, while input costs continued to decline.The data validate marginal supply-demand improvement in domestic manufacturing, a positive for sentiment in high-end manufacturing and the equipment sector.
However, the recovery in domestic demand remains uneven...In Part I, we unpacked SoFi's business framework and identified its growth engines: expansion of the Loan Platform Biz. (LPB) and the revival of student lending.
In Part II, guided by Muddy Waters' short case, we surfaced several 'hidden wounds' — shifting credit losses on/off balance sheet to manage the NPL ratio, profit inflation from fair value accounting, and equity dilution.Put together, a somewhat contradictory picture emerges: despite inherent flaws under constant market scrutiny, SoFi still spiked to a $42bn market cap in H2 2025...Jun 29 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry
1) Per U.S. officials, the U.S. and Iran agreed to pause reciprocal strikes, with talks to resume on 6/30 in Doha, Qatar, shifting the focus from the nuclear file to safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The session originally slated for Switzerland was relocated amid an escalation.Recent attacks on merchant shipping in the strait had pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations. The current pause should ease the geopolitical risk premium near term, a positive for global growth stocks.That said, core disputes over the nuclear issue and U.S. troop deployments in the Middle East remain unresolved, leaving any truce fragile. If the Doha talks reach a transit consensus, the energy sector likely stays under pressure while consumer and tech valuation recovery continues; if talks break down...0625 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Stock 1, $Qualcomm(QCOM.US) Qualcomm unveiled the Dragonfly C1000 CPU and AI300 accelerator, with mass production slated for 2028. It has secured orders from Meta and other hyperscalers, and guided 2027 data-center revenue to $5bn.
Qualcomm moving into Nvidia's turf looks inevitable; the key differentiator is power efficiency. Amon noted that 'the bottleneck for cloud providers has shifted from chip cost to power,' a sweet spot for mobile SoC houses built over the past two decades...Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of QCOM 2026 Investor Day. Key financial highlights are as follows.
Shareholder returns: $40 bn returned to shareholders over the past five years, and 30% of shares repurchased and retired over the past decade. Looking ahead, dividend growth will stay in the low to mid single digits, with most FCF returned to shareholders.Financial targets were materially raised. The FY29 non-handset revenue target was lifted to $40 bn from $22 bn set 18 months ago, nearly doubling...Below is Dolphin Research's Trans of the FY26 Q1 earnings call for $Trip.com(TCOM.US). For the earnings analysis, please see 'Before the regulatory crackdown hits, does Trip.com have one last leg down?'
I. Core info recap 1) Core financials: Q1 FY26 total net revenue was RMB 16.2bn (+17% YoY), slightly above market expectations (RMB 15.8bn; ~2% beat). Non-GAAP diluted EPS per ADS was RMB 5.73 (~$0.83). As of Mar 31, 2026...
Under a regulatory overhang, $Trip.com(TCOM.US) finally released its long-delayed Q1 results on Jun 25. Overall, the quarter was solid, with revenue growth and profitability slightly ahead of expectations.
The regulatory situation remains unresolved, with no official response to date. The bigger issue is that the release directly guides Q2 revenue growth of 3%–8%, with profit to be affected, indicating regulation is starting to bite.
Key details: 1) Revenue growth slowed. Group net revenue for Q1 was approx. RMB 16.2bn...
In 2026, the AI hardware hot spot has shifted from compute to memory. As AI trades in U.S. equities start to wobble, Micron’s prints have turned into the new bellwether. $Micron Tech(MU.US) reported after-market on Jun 24 (FQ3 FY26 for the quarter ended end-May), and it delivered, taking up the mantle as the AI infra standard-bearer.
Results speak for themselves: broad-based strength. Key takeaways: 1) Headline results: revenue of $41.5bn, up 74% QoQ, marking a second consecutive quarter with 70%+ QoQ growth...
Below is Dolphin Research's compilation of Micron Technology's FY26 Q3 earnings call Trans.
I. Core takeaways from the print.1) FQ4 guidance (record): revenue of $50 bn (±$1 bn), GPM about 86%, and OpEx around $1.65 bn.
EPS guided to a record $31 (±$1), based on approx. 1.15 bn shares. Tax rate ~15%.The FQ4 GPM guide already factors in a clear slowdown in price increases.
For FY27, OpEx is expected to rise by about $1 bn to expand R&D.Trip.com 1Q26 First Take: likely under regulatory overhang, the company finally released its delayed Q1 results. Overall, three takeaways stand out: 1) results remained solid with healthy revenue growth and profits; 2) the regulatory review is ongoing, with final remediation and any penalties still undisclosed; 3) management guided next-quarter revenue growth to just 3%–8%, with profitability to be hit as well, a post-pandemic low that signals regulatory impact starting to bite.
Revenue grew ~17% YoY, a modest slowdown from the 20%+ pace in the prior quarter but above the 15% street view. GPM fell ~90bps YoY, but expenses, especially marketing, came in well below expectations, lifting earnings. Adj. OP exceeded RMB 4.6bn (+10% YoY), beating the RMB 4.45bn estimate.
Leaving the beat aside, GPM still contracted ~90bps YoY while total opex rose 18%, outpacing revenue. This suggests an investment phase, pressuring margins (OPM narrowed 120bps YoY) and leading to limited profit conversion from top-line growth.
While current results are decent, the key issue is the very weak guide for next quarter. Management cited two drivers: the U.S.-Iran conflict and higher oil prices weighing on travel in affected regions, and voluntary operating adjustments to comply with regulators.
As the Middle East is not Trip.com's core overseas market, and OTA peers have actually traded well recently on World Cup tailwinds, Dolphin Research believes the U.S.-Iran conflict is not the primary factor. Domestic regulatory impact likely matters more.
Details in the release are limited, so watch the earnings call and subsequent small-group meetings for updates on the review and potential business impact. $Trip.com(TCOM.US) $TRIP.COM-S(09961.HK)
MU 3Q26 First Take: in a word, stellar. Revenue, profit, and next-quarter guide all beat across the board.
Revenue jumped 74% QoQ, roughly matching last quarter's pace. Volumes contributed only low-to-mid single digits, with growth driven mainly by pricing.
GPM surged to 85%, well ahead of the Street. With stable operating leverage, OPM topped 80%. $41.5bn of revenue converted into $33.3bn of profit.
More importantly, the company guided to around $50.0bn for next quarter. That is well above the $42.6bn consensus.
The guide implies ~20% QoQ growth, broadly in line with expectations. Given shipment timing, pricing for the new quarter was not fully locked when the guide was set, so management typically builds in a buffer. Post-guide, bullish expectations moved higher.
EPS guidance essentially matches the most bullish buyside view at around $30. The 86% GPM guide (vs. the Street's 83%) reinforces that in this unprecedented supercycle, price-led revenue gains are flowing through to profit. With OPM approaching ~75%, the Agentic AI boom shows compute and memory matter equally.$Micron Tech(MU.US)
When OpenAI took off, Microsoft enjoyed the limelight. As Gemini gained traction, Google Cloud surged ahead.
That begs the question: with Anthropic now out in front, which cloud provider stands to benefit? In AI, whether in chip R&D or model development...A clear roadmap and incremental iteration. Don't rush — good things take time.
0624 | Dolphin Focus: 🐬 Stock 1, $KUAISHOU-W(01024.HK) Kuaishou E-com has officially launched 'Express Delivery' with a dedicated mall entry.
It focuses on next-day and two-day cross-city fulfillment, and does not offer same-city hourly delivery. The asset-light model leverages existing courier networks, paired with late-delivery compensation and traffic tilt, and covers standardized SKUs such as daily necessities and food.The service plugs the platform’s logistics gap and shifts competition away from pure price wars. By adding speed labels, it aims to lift conversion; without heavy investment in front warehouses, capex pressure is lower...Against a persistently weak tape, Jun was a standout for Zhipu. News just before Jun about its Stock Connect inclusion sparked heavy flows and sharp intraday swings.
From Jun 10 to Jun 18, the stock doubled in roughly a week. On Jun 22, $KNOWLEDGE ATLAS(02513.HK) crossed HK$1tn in market cap.This strength beat market expectations. In our prior earnings take, we noted Zhipu’s stronger momentum vs. $MINIMAX-W(00100.HK). Our core view: capital is paying up for the scarcity of model intelligence.On Jan 2, 2026, $BIREN TECH(06082.HK) debuted on HKEX, with the IPO priced at the top end at HK$19.60. The stock opened up 82.14%; intraday mkt cap briefly topped HK$100bn, and it closed at about HK$82.5bn.
The retail tranche was oversubscribed 2,347x, highlighting a strong retail bid. Sentiment was buoyed by its scarcity as the first GPU company listed in Hong Kong.
The 'domestic $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)' label further stoked buying as investors chased a China Nvidia proxy. But setting aside the aura...
In the prior piece, after reviewing $SoFi Tech(SOFI.US)'s core biz., we noted that current earnings are largely driven by expansion of the Lending Platform Business (LPB), with a smaller lift from the gradual comeback in student loans.
On Mar 23, Muddy Waters released a short report that squarely targeted these key segments.In its view, SOFI's conduct is comparable to past cases like GE and Enron.Market reaction was muted.
After the CEO swiftly stepped in with share purchases to back the stock, it fell just 2.6% the next day.It even looked restrained vs. the typical impact of a short report...Jun 17 | Dolphin Research Key Watch: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) After a citywide crackdown on 'ghost restaurants' exposed fake storefronts and license mismatches, the Shenzhen Market Supervision Bureau summoned Meituan, Taobao Flash Sale and JD. It ordered comprehensive self-inspections, removal of non-compliant merchants, and on-site verification of offline stores.
The campaign targets gaps in food-safety audits. In the short term, platforms will need to ramp up merchant inspections, raising compliance Opex and putting food-delivery profitability under pressure.Over the longer run, the sector will move away from rough expansion. Platforms will be pushed to tighten merchant onboarding and risk controls...Dolphin Research's earlier concerns unfortunately materialized, with May retail sales weaker than Apr. YoY growth in total retail sales fell into negative territory at -0.6%, the first decline in the post-pandemic era.
Even before the Sep-24 'big reversal', domestic retail had not been this weak. From a channel perspective, online retail shows signs of bottoming and a rebound, but offline spending deteriorated more sharply (both goods and dining), further slowing the headline growth. By category...$SoFi Tech(SOFI.US) has been public for five years. Early on, it was cast as the next LendingClub, a scaling digital bank, and a high-beta fintech meme stock.
Since its 2021 debut, the shares have crashed multiple times. At the 2022 trough, they fell to about 60% of the IPO price.Even after clawing back, turbulence has persisted. In Mar, SoFi was targeted by famed short-seller Muddy Waters.As the short case is not without merit, Dolphin Research will unpack it in the next note. That said, whatever Muddy Waters alleges, in management’s eyes...0616 | Dolphin Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry — 1) NBS data show May retail sales fell 0.6% YoY and 0.38% MoM, with goods consumption soft while F&B and rural retail posted modest gains. Industrial value-added (above designated size) rose 4.5% YoY, up 40bps vs. Apr as new growth drivers strengthened the production side.
Supply and demand diverged: the recovery in domestic demand remained weak, while manufacturing upgrade and transformation accelerated. Near term, this weighs on valuations across consumer plays.
However, computing power and new energy equipment—representative high-end manufacturing—show resilient fundamentals. The data underscore ongoing pressure on internal demand repair...
Starlink is the 'super base' underpinning SpaceX's long-term ambitions. It serves as the empire's core platform.
0615 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) Both the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire MoU, with Trump authorizing 'free passage' through the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade. The parties plan to sign the agreement in Switzerland on Jun 19, with follow-on talks over the next 60 days to address the Iran nuclear file and sanctions.
Near term, the headlines ease Middle East geopolitical risk, compressing the crude risk premium and supporting energy and shipping. However, core disagreements such as the nuclear issue remain unresolved, keeping the setup fragile. Progress in subsequent negotiations is the key watch.