GOOD MORNING & WELCOME TO FOMC DECISION WEEK.
In addition to a potential rate hike, the fears over the weekend caused by Dario’s essay have led to a long software/short semis premarket. Nvidia, Marvell, Sandisk, AMD, Nebius, Micron, CoreWeave, Intel are all red from 3-7%. Palantir, Atlassian, Crowdstrike, Service Now, Adobe, Intuit are all green from 2-5%. Personally, I think the market is having a knee jerk reaction to the headlines over the weekend. In the past 24 hours, Anthropic themselves have signed multiple new compute deals (one with Rumble for $14B yesterday) and are preparing for their IPO by officially picking the Nasdaq as their exchange. In the face of all the “pace the frontier” slowdown news, the company creating that news is not slowing down their compute obligations.So why is the market reacting like this? Well, the entire AI trade is rooted in capex. Until there is more clarity on what it means to slow down model training and recursive learning, the market is assuming that means there is a closer end to the growth in capex than expected which obviously is bad for the AI names. Great for software as more money gets allocated to the application layer and great for hyperscalers since they can generate more FCF which is why those names are green premarket.I think this fear could flip within days if not within hours, but if you match this fear with a rate hike that might be priced in but still is not good for high-beta growth (which is what the AI trade is composed of) then you start to see how the market can make sense of taking these names down further.Jensen speaks at the All-In Summit today, he’s likely either going to completely reject Sam/Dario’s fear-inducing message by giving a more optimistic approach to think about AI or agree with it and still make the claim that compute obligations, even if not needed to train new models as fast as possible, are not slowing down. Going to be a big week. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US)Source: amit








