JPPOMRT@EC2608A

I really don't understand Pop Mart.

If you don't understand it, don't touch it.

You can't just buy because A Duan bought it.

And then when they get called out, they start making excuses...

Investing is your own business.

Independent thinking is very important 🤔

After a sharp pullback in the share price, bearish sentiment on Pop Mart has built quickly. How should we view the stock at current levels? Based on the newly released Q1 data, here is a quick take on $POP MART(09992.HK).

A quick math check: using channel checks and assuming last year's Q1 contributed 40% of 1H revenue (~RMB 5.5bn), and taking the midpoint of a 75%–80% growth range, 1Q26 revenue is roughly RMB 9.8bn.Against last year's peak Q4 (estimated ~RMB 10.4bn, assuming 2H was 45% of full-year), the QoQ decline is single digit.This contrasts with some foreign brokers' expectations for a double-digit QoQ drop and, in our view, constitutes a topline beat.

China: +100%–105% YoY stands out as the biggest surprise, driven by the rapid ramp of newer IPs such as Xingxingren and continued strength in online channels.With category expansion into accessories and desserts, the domestic market is far from saturated, and refined operations still leave ample room for growth.

APAC: +25%–30% YoY remains the core overseas base and the earliest to scale.After two years of explosive growth in SEA, the region has entered a 'high-penetration + high-base' normalized phase, making this growth pace steady and broadly in line.

Americas: +55%–60% YoY / Europe: +60%–65% YoY look soft considering the low base and low penetration a year ago, falling short of the expected high-growth elasticity.Management flagged on the call that both regions are in an organizational upgrade and localization transition, and will temporarily slow the pace of store openings and marketing.This is also the main reason the company proactively trimmed its 2026 growth target.

Taking guidance of no less than 20% growth and the stronger-than-expected domestic Q1, we model a mid-to-high case of +23%, implying full-year net profit of ~RMB 16bn (c. 12x P/E).The market appears to price Pop Mart as a cyclical consumer name 'highly dependent on a single IP, with growth decelerating and margins peaking'.In our view, its core competitive moat remains intact, and the current levels underestimate the platform value.

new design of stock to crave for collection. Current designs are mostly grab and done for. Consumers are constantly searching for excitement. This eventually elevates the valuation of the company.✌️

$POP MART(09992.HK)

Pop Mart: Is the Labubu Fever Breaking?

According to The Straits Times (2 April), Pop Mart’s staggering $42 billion valuation wipeout signals a “Labubu-sized” identity crisis. Investors are pivoting away from treating the toy maker as a high-flying, tech-adjacent firm, focusing instead on the structural risks of it being a fleeting consumer trend.

🔹 Technical Snapshot: Catching a Falling Knife?

❤️ On the 4H chart, it shows a clear vertical selloff from HKD 220–230 zone down to 141.8.

❤️ Bollinger Band Exhaustion: The price is “hugging” the lower band (HKD 112.8). While technically overextended, the absence of a meaningful bounce suggests sustained selling pressure rather than an imminent reversal.

❤️ RSI Conditions: The RSI is deep in oversold territory at 25.39. Current momentum is so bearish that the RSI is simply “sliding” along the floor.

❤️ Resistance Levels: The 20-period SMA (blue line) at HKD 169.1 serves as the immediate ceiling.

🔹 Fundamentals Snapshot :

❤️ IP Over-Concentration: Labubu accounted for nearly 40% of 2025 revenue. This extreme reliance creates a “single point of failure”.

❤️Inventory Red Flags: Inventory turnover has spiked to 123 days. This suggests that while production remains high, the “sell-through” rate is decelerating.

❤️Valuation De-rating: Now trading at 10.3x forward earnings, the stock sits at a record-low valuation. However, the market is pricing in a “growth trap”.

❤️My Verdict: Patience Over Panic

Pop Mart is currently a high-risk contrarian play, with high rewards. While the valuation is objectively tempting and management is active with share buybacks, the technicals have yet to signal a definitive bottom.

Stay prudent, wait for a “basing” pattern. Look for the price to consolidate between HKD 140–150 for several sessions without posting new lows.

Not financial advice. Trade safety and stay vigilant at all times.

Powell may not have an FOMC talk, but his recent QnA at a University sparks interests and influenced the market. A simple comment that inflation outlook in check and there's no need to hike rates due to oil shock has the market reacting positively. Let's see how the situation pans out in the next few weeks

Fed is in a dilemma. On one hand, he is cautious of rising inflation due to wars & tariff, on the other hand, he is watching unemployment rate in the labor market. Do nothing is the best current strategy for the Fed, till events becomes clearer. Singapore is pivoting to partner other trading blocks to increase trade export to like minded countries. And fast adoption of AI to enhance productivity to address rising cost of doing business here. Is all hands on deck. Singapore has to be ahead of the curve due to fast changing political and economical landscape changes to keep growth on track.

Fed’s dovish is shifting short term sentiment, creating a tactical risk on window. Not a full pivot yet,so stay long quality growth but keep macro hedges in place

Tesla TERAFAB – Moving into ultra scale compute fits the AI capex boom, where global demand is surging. For now, it’s a high beta narrative play, with execution risk still the main swing factor.

Singapore retains solid growth supported by strong manufacturing and AI driven exports, showing underlying resilience despite external risks.

Musk is again promising the sun and moon; selling a dream, forever over promising and shifting goal posts. With the geopolitical event causing headache and pocket-aches to investors, I don't think anyone would be in the mood to be an all-in bull right now...

7 days into negotiation between US and IRAN, but no news of any breakthrough. The war will be long and the blockade will last. Start being defensive people!

As the war continues, oil will be in short supply and cause Singapore to suffer. Yes we do have 6 months of reserve. But one that used up, we are in the same situation as other South East Asia counties... So be worried peeps!

As usual anything from tesla is to take with a pinch of salt. Elon Musk have always over promise but under deliver. Only when it really launches then believe in the narrative!

As the war continues and oil prices remain high, this will naturally cause inflation to tick higher and hence higher interest. Best to brace yourself for heavy repricing!

The tense situation in the Middle East poses a downside risk to Singapore's 3.0% GDP forecast. Singapore's reliance on crude oil processing means that tensions in the Gulf will undoubtedly have a significant impact on its GDP, and stock market fluctuations are inevitable. However, Singapore's position as Asia's top economy also highlights its importance.

The Fed has no choice do they? A faltering labour force in a country which is spending unnecessarily and has to refinance its books soon? Superficially high oil prices are inflationary. However it will be deflationary if it destroys consumers’ spending power - less money to buy other things = demand drop across the board. A smart economist will see beyond the ‘high oil=inflation’ narrative!