Leverage Shares 2X Long AVGO Daily ETF

Wall Street is now paying record prices to insure the biggest AI companies against default

Five year credit default swaps, which are quoted in basis points per year, so 100 bps means paying $1 a year to insure $100 of debt, have blown out across the AI trade, per Reuters, Bloomberg and IFR

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US), the world's most valuable company and rated AA, now costs about 90 bps to insure, roughly 50 bps above early June and well above the investment grade CDS index at about 62 bps

$Meta Platforms(META.US) is around 105 bps, and Reuters says $Amazon(AMZN.US) and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) default insurance also traded at record highs last week

$Broadcom(AVGO.US) hit a record 136 bps, the highest since at least 2009 and more than triple late May, as it backstops a $42B loan package to help Anthropic pay for its chips

$Oracle(ORCL.US) hit a record 288 bps, $SoftBank(SFTBY.US) (SoftBank) 424 bps, and $Coreweave(CRWV.US) blew past 1,100 bps, which implies roughly a 63% chance of default within five years, up from about 30% a year ago

And it hasn't stopped with Monday's bounce. Bloomberg data shows $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) and $Broadcom(AVGO.US) pushing out to fresh all time wides today, even as chip stocks rally

The stock market is asking whether AI pays off. The credit market is asking who pays for it. Borrowers like $Oracle(ORCL.US), $Broadcom(AVGO.US) and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) have priced nearly half a trillion dollars of AI infrastructure debt this year per Bloomberg, and none of these companies is anywhere near default. But when protection on $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) costs more than on the average investment grade company, the price of funding the buildout is rising for everyone, and that's the part today's equity bounce hasn't priced

Source: StockMarket.News

AI rebound, biotech wins, earnings week

Futures point to a rebound after last week’s sharp tech/AI selloff (Nasdaq Composite -4.5% for the week, largest since late June; S&P -2%). AI-linked names are leading the bounce ($NVIDIA(NVDA.US) +1–2%, $Broadcom(AVGO.US) +2%+, semis and memory groups higher), helped by lower oil and modestly easier Treasury yields.

The 10-year is around 5.08–5.09%. Brent is down ~1.8–2% to the mid-$107s after President Trump waived key provisions of the Graham Act Russia sanctions package (signed into law last month and set to take effect this week), citing national interest and efforts to ease energy prices ahead of midterms. Zelensky has criticized the move.

Risks remain: another tanker mine hit reported in the Strait of Hormuz, with shipping/insurance costs still elevated. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh offered no rate signal last week; markets price a high probability (~72–85%) of a hold at the Oct 27–28 meeting after September’s hike, with a December hike still possible. Higher-for-longer rates remain a overhang for AI infrastructure financing. Today’s main data point is the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10 a.m. ET (prior 32).

AI Infrastructure & Semis: Dip-Buying After Financing Scare

Last week’s pressure on AI capex sustainability, data-center debt, and higher rates is reversing in premarket. Neoclouds are notable: $Coreweave(CRWV.US) +6%+ after Goldman Sachs upgraded it to Buy from Neutral (PT cut to $106 from $139, still implying substantial upside). GS cites tighter supply supporting ARR per MW and unlevered IRR, differentiation versus peers, and overestimation of capital costs by the market after the stock’s recent drop (~43% from mid-August, -24% in five days).

$Nebius(NBIS.US) and $IREN(IREN.US) are also higher in sympathy. Memory names ($Micron Tech(MU.US), $Sandisk(SNDK.US) and related) are rebounding as part of the broader semi complex. FinTwit chatter frames this as selective buy-the-dip in the hardest-hit AI infra names, with the key test being follow-through and whether earnings this week provide monetization evidence rather than just more spending commitments. One note of caution circulating is that financing spreads had widened and nothing fundamental changed overnight.

$Intel(INTC.US) is up ~4% after JPMorgan upgraded it to Neutral from Underweight (PT unchanged at $85). The firm sees more balanced risk/reward after a ~36% drop from the June peak. Since Lip-Bu Tan’s appointment as CEO, execution has improved in core client/data-center compute and next-gen manufacturing (yields, foundry compatibility, advanced packaging). JPMorgan also points to agentic AI workloads (CPU-intensive) and tight leading-edge silicon supply as potential drivers of positive EPS revisions into 2027; its 2028 EPS is ~15% above consensus. This is a classic “valuation reset + operational progress” catalyst after prior underperformance versus the group.

Biotech Binary Outcomes

$Disc Medicine(IRON.US) (Disc Medicine) is surging 40%+ (and higher in some prints) after announcing that its Phase 3 APOLLO trial of bitopertin in erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP, including XLP) met all primary and secondary endpoints. Co-primaries: 41.4% reduction in whole-blood metal-free PPIX vs placebo (p<0.0001) and +12.2 hours average monthly time in light without pain in month 6 (p=0.0010). Secondary endpoints on phototoxic reactions and cumulative light tolerance were also hit. The drug was generally well-tolerated (dizziness most common TEAE). Company plans to resubmit NDA by year-end 2026 with a potential mid-2027 FDA decision. This directly addresses the prior Complete Response Letter. Webcast this morning at 8 a.m. ET. Rare-disease positive readout with clear regulatory path is a classic high-conviction catalyst.

$EyePoint(EYPT.US) (EyePoint) is collapsing ~80%+ after the second Phase 3 LUCIA trial of Duravyu in wet AMD failed the primary non-inferiority endpoint versus Regeneron’s Eylea (vision improved but not enough to meet the bar). Company is ending the wet AMD pivotal trials early, cutting ~53% of its workforce (annualized savings ~$30M), and shifting focus to diabetic macular edema (Phase 3 data expected Q4 2027). Cash was ~$118M as of Sept 30. This is the second miss (prior failure in August triggered a large drop); capital preservation and pipeline pivot are the near-term story, with high residual binary risk.

Software & Observability

$Datadog(DDOG.US) is up ~3.6% after Bernstein SocGen upgraded it to Outperform from Market Perform and raised the PT sharply to $350 from $237. The firm is more constructive on AI demand strength after previously flagging concerns around a large “Born in AI” customer contract downsizing and traditional customer softness. AI observability remains a structural tailwind narrative on FinTwit for infrastructure software that owns critical telemetry and context layers.

Earnings Calendar This Week (Catalyst Heavy)

Monday is relatively light (already includes $Cleveland Cliffs(CLF.US), which reported Q3 adjusted EPS $0.28 beating ~$0.24, revenue $5.61B, adjusted EBITDA $612M above the $575M guide, and a constructive Q4/2027 outlook; stock +13% pre). The real tests arrive mid-week:

- Tuesday: $Netflix(NFLX.US), $SpaceX(SPCX.US) (SpaceX), $General Motors(GM.US), $GE Aerospace(GE.US), $RTX(RTX.US), others.

- Wednesday: $Meta Platforms(META.US), $Tesla(TSLA.US), $IBM(IBM.US), $Lam Research(LRCX.US), $Texas Instruments(TXN.US) and more.

- Thursday/Friday: $Procter & Gamble(PG.US), $Lockheed Martin(LMT.US), $Western Digital(WDC.US), $American Express(AXP.US), etc.

After last week’s AI financing and rate-driven selloff, guidance and commentary on AI spend ROI, capex intensity, and demand will be closely watched. Options implied moves on several names are elevated. A clean beat-and-raise cycle from the larger names would reinforce the premarket rebound; weak monetization language could reverse it quickly.

Other Notes

- Oil remains geopolitically sensitive despite the Russia waiver; Hormuz incidents continue to create noise without fully clearing.

- Broader semi lead-time and pricing data from prior weeks (passives, power, analog) had been supportive of the upcycle; the rebound today is consistent with that backdrop but rate sensitivity is the new variable.

- Pre-market volume leaders include several AI/semi names plus the biotech extremes noted above. Selective positioning is the prevailing FinTwit posture: favor names with specific catalysts (upgrades, data, earnings) over pure beta into the print week.

NFA / DYOR. This is not financial advice. Markets move on new information; do your own research and manage risk accordingly.

Mizuho: 'We remain positive on the optical roadmap with $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Credo Tech(CRDO.US), $Tower Semicon(TSEM.US), $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), and $Broadcom(AVGO.US) as key beneficiaries'.

"We share an optical market update post our expert call. Key takeaways:

1) NPO as the key NT optical driver, ramping into 2027E+, and driving 5-10% cost savings vs optical pluggables,

2) CPO as the next architectural step driving ~30% cost savings vs pluggables, broader adoption into 2028E+, while deployments are constrained by supply chain readiness/maturity and OCS could be a complementary product, enabling better topology scaling,

3) Our call noted SiPho penetration growing from 43% in 2025 to 76% in 2030E, we believe with pluggables/NPO and CPO longer term, fueling demand for CW lasers (+ve LITE) and SiPho modules (+ve TSEM/STM), and

4) InP substrate supply remains constrained but with major capacity additions into 2026-27E, we believe growing >80%/>30% in 2026E/2027E, and laser OEMs scaling.

We remain positive on the optical roadmap with LITE, CRDO, TSEM, NVDA, and AVGO as key beneficiaries."

Chip stocks are on pace for a 6th straight red day, the longest losing streak for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) since May 2025, per Bloomberg

The SOX is down about 2% today near 11,964, roughly 9.5% below its Oct 6 close of 13,218

Monday did the most damage with a 2.7% drop after $Broadcom(AVGO.US) CEO Hock Tan compared AI investing to a "casino" at a conference in Singapore

Memory names are taking the hardest hits after reports that China's CXMT made key progress on a new memory architecture. $Micron Tech(MU.US), Samsung, and SK Hynix have led the selling

This morning's hotter core CPI and a $Coreweave(CRWV.US) bond now yielding about 15%, up from 9.625% at issue, are adding pressure on the debt-funded AI buildout

Even with the slide, the index is still up more than 60% this year

Six red days after a run like that looks more like the market repricing how fast AI capex turns into returns than demand cracking. $ASML(ASML.US) just posted a record quarter with customers talking orders into 2029 and 2030. The real test is hyperscaler capex guidance later this month, because that is what this group is priced on

Source: StockMarket.News