Expert call covering InP substrates – CPO & high-power CW laser demand drivers, 3" to 4"/6" wafer size transition, yield bottlenecks, raw phosphorus constraints, and 2H27/2028 market balance outlook.
$AXT(AXTI.US)
AXTI 2X Long ETF
AXTX----
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"Potential FCC rules on optical transceivers more likely to come at 3.2T" - $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), $SIVE.
Morgan Stanley met with Washington officials:- Restrictions would likely start at 3.2T modules made in China (800g/1.6T would be left alone)- Potential restrictions would likely keep laser market tight (combining US DSPs + lasers could meet the 65% US value threshold per MS)- Chinese modules could qualify if 65% of bill of materials is US content. Chinese modules using US DSPs and lasers are already near that level- Analysts expect the positive impact on laser pricing... to be more important than any broad redistribution of transceiver market share.- Analysts don't expect this to bottleneck hyperscaler AI buildouts, they name InP substrate supply as the key variable to watch (hello $AXT(AXTI.US) ) TLDR:Component suppliers in general are really positive. Like $Semtech(SMTC.US) probably winner here for TIAs/drivers (I don't think this was listed), maybe $Maxlinear(MXL.US) for DSPs too. $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) another large beneficiary. $SIVE is high-key alpha for laser beneficaries since they have "tremendous capacity" coming online, and that points to US foundries (they haven't formally disclosed location). Since previous slideshows show 2 US foundries 1 Taiwan foundry (Win Semi) in terms of their capacity partnerships. And it's process of elimination. From CIOE Channel checks it does look like they're starting to work with Chinese pluggable players, (so they'd avenues moving forward as US supply chain component beneficiaries). Of course $Lumentum(LITE.US) / $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) would be happy. TLDR: Western supply chains for Lasers / DSPs / TIAs / others are already bottlenecked but qualified capacity becomes even more important. - E
IQE reiterating what the industry has said about InP:
"As we've previously highlighted, we are seeing high demand for our indium phosphide and gallium arsenide optical interconnect technologies.""Indium phosphide substrates are becoming some of the bottlenecks around significant volume increases."$AXT(AXTI.US) - T
With no dot plots and little guidance on rate hikes, traders place extra weight on Kevin Walsh speech. a hawkish hint can now cause a relatively huge wave in the market
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate OddsFed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to...
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Warsh’s hawkish tone reinforces the Fed’s focus on persistent inflation rather than recent cooling data. The sharp rise in September hike expectations signals greater policy uncertainty and could keep Treasury yields elevated, strengthening the dollar while pressuring rate-sensitive equities, particularly growth and technology stocks. However, the Fed remains data-dependent, with upcoming employment and inflation reports likely to determine the September decision.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate OddsFed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to...
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It looks like Warsh is hawkish but is he really? He has to look credible as data still points to inflation being sticky.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate OddsFed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to...
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Increase rate will help banks and disfavored businesses that require to take loans or those who require to refinance soon. REIT most likely will be down in the short term but it is fall sharply will be a good time to get in DCA when everyone is fearful of REIT but might provide a good dividend play in SG.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate OddsFed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to...
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Nothing surprising with Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. He has to state what is in line with the data and data does not point to inflation being tamed yet.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate OddsFed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to...
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Any weakness in the REITs sector is an opportunity to consider for a long term investor. For many, they have or are giving up on REITs but one man's poison is anothers gourmet buffet.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate OddsFed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to...
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered an unexpected hawkish surprise in his keynote speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting on Friday, warning that inflation trends have not yet "significantly improved" and raising the probability of a September rate hike from about one-third to even odds.
The rate hike news will weigh down the stock market, while bank lending stocks are expected to climb.
Catching this tailwind, shares of Singapore's three major banks are set to see another pullback after dividend payouts.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate OddsFed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to...
