Baidu

Labour day and break for US market as jobs climbs

August’s much stronger-than-expected payroll growth signals renewed labor-market resilience, reducing pressure for monetary easing and lifting September rate-hike expectations toward 60%. Rising 2-year Treasury yields reflect expectations of tighter policy, increasing the discount rate for equities. However, relatively limited equity declines suggest investors are absorbing the stronger-growth/higher-rates outlook rather than pricing an immediate economic downturn. Upcoming inflation data will be crucial in determining whether this pressure persists.

Sep 11 US CPI is the crux… If up, interest rate hike remains on table..

Bloomberg: Gary Black Says Tesla Has Solved Unsupervised Autonomy, but Competition Is the Bigger Threat

Rate hike odds are currently inflated at around 60+% following Warsh's hawkish stance and that inflationary pressures are pushing the FED to make a decision sooner than expected. I expect a turbulent month of September for stocks, but I think this is just a mini wave crash, not the capsize of the boat.

I'm still more concerned about us core PCE inflation at 3.3% yoy, way higher than fed 2% target. esp. when we're close to the next FOMC 16 sept; a rate hike is looking real. that said, there's still enough time for good news that can delay the hike.

Capital is still rotating from tech outwards in a healthy fashion. Expected with the Fed chairman stating a more hawkish stance. Jobs data might be important with him reinforcing the labour data being a big factor in his decision.

Markets continue to be resilient to close out August. Shall see what happens during the US mid terms. Anthropic IPO will be one to watch for me as well.

I expect Shein to underperform in its upcoming IPO. There’s been a lot of negative news surrounding the listing and it is likely take years for them to truly deliver on expectations. I think buy tech stock and REITs 🤭

Anyway, SG REITs are bleeding now! 🫢 Looks like bargain-hunting season for me 😂 Anyone buying 🙄

4th mega deal this month feels like peak AI capex. Meanwhile 65% rate-hike odds = less cheap money. Expect rotation out of high-beta tech into safer sectors soon.