Goldman Sachs: companies we visited see pricing competition remaining healthy, with 800G optical module pricing decline within single digits in 2027, and 1.6T optical module price to sustain at $700+.
$Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) $Macom Tech(MTSI.US)
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Citi: Scale-out should be one of the major scenarios in
the global datacom optical interconnects market due toexpanding AI datacenter; scale-up should emerge andbecome vital$Lumentum(LITE.US) $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) - P
Incredible growth expected for $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), and $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) with new GS optical transceiver forecasts.
- Global optical transceiver TAM revised up by 33% / 81% / 115% in 2026-28E.- In 2026/27/28E: optical transceiver market to reach $68B/131B/148B.- Driven by (1) higher rack-level AI server and ASIC AI server shipments and (2) higher estimates on the usage of optical transceivers per Nvidia GPU in rack-level AI servers. - 800G and above segment to increase at a +69% CAGR to reach $45B/108B/130B. - 800G/1.6T shipment volumes at 45M/33M units in 2026E, growing to 49M/71M in 2027E, with 3.2T shipment ramping up to 23M/68M in 2027/28E. - Silicon photonics will account for 60%/80%/80% of 800G/1.6T/3.2T optical transceivers.Just insane growth on top of what most people had forecasted a few months ago. - C
holding both CIEN and COHR here, no interest in picking the one winner out of four names. if the AI-networking shift Deutsche Bank is talking about is real it should show up broadly, not just in whoever i guessed right
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deutsche bank naming lumentum and coherent as top picks this early in the cycle, anyone actually trade off these sector calls or just noise until the next earnings print
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Goldman Sachs: Global Optical Transceiver Shipments
> Shipment & Forecast Revisions: Goldman Sachs raised global optical transceiver shipments for 2026–28E by 21%/31%/31%. For 1.6T and above, shipments were raised by 29%/61%/50% for 2026–28E, driven by higher rack-level/ASIC server shipments, increased optical module usage per GPU, and specification upgrades.> Market Size Projections: The global optical transceiver market is expected to reach US$68bn in 2026E, US$131bn in 2027E, and US$148bn in 2028E. The 800G and above segment is projected to grow at a +69% CAGR to reach US$45bn, US$108bn, and US$130bn respectively.> Volume and Speed Milestones: 800G/1.6T shipment volumes are projected at 45m/33m units in 2026E, growing to 49m/71m units in 2027E.3.2T shipments are expected to ramp up to 23m units in 2027E and 68m units in 2028E.> Technology Adoption: Silicon photonics is expected to account for 60% of 800G, 80% of 1.6T, and 80% of 3.2T optical transceivers.$Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) - T
With no dot plots and little guidance on rate hikes, traders place extra weight on Kevin Walsh speech. a hawkish hint can now cause a relatively huge wave in the market
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate OddsFed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to...
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Warsh’s hawkish tone reinforces the Fed’s focus on persistent inflation rather than recent cooling data. The sharp rise in September hike expectations signals greater policy uncertainty and could keep Treasury yields elevated, strengthening the dollar while pressuring rate-sensitive equities, particularly growth and technology stocks. However, the Fed remains data-dependent, with upcoming employment and inflation reports likely to determine the September decision.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate OddsFed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to...
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Silicon Photonics' optical transceiver market share is estimated to exceed 50% by 2027.
$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) VP of Advanced Packaging said today that silicon photonics is becoming the mainstream form thanks to the structural transformation of optical transceivers.He also stated that the real bottleneck for large-scale deployment lies in lasers, optical fibers, fiber optic connectors, and product testing.If I was to pick the "main" players instead of just name-dumping:- $Lumentum(LITE.US) / $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US): InP lasers - CW for SiPh, ELS for CPO, 200G EMLs- $Aehr Test(AEHR.US): SiPh WLBI testing- $Corning(GLW.US): PM fibre, fibre arrays & MPO/MTP connectivity- Sumitomo Electric (5802): InP lasers + substratesObviously you've got a ton of other names from: $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) for InP lasers, $IQE for InP base epi, $BESI for hybrid bonding and $Keysight Tech(KEYS.US) / $Viavi Solutions(VIAV.US) for optical test.Feels like TSMC have been running the same narrative alongside the COUPE roadmap for a while now though.But always good to get some re-confirmations on where everyone's favourite bottlenecks sit / narratives coming from TSMC themselves. - D
It looks like Warsh is hawkish but is he really? He has to look credible as data still points to inflation being sticky.
Featured☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Warsh's Hawkish Turn Flips the Rate OddsFed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish surprise at Friday's Jackson Hole keynote, warning inflation trends haven't "meaningfully improved" and pushing September rate-hike odds from about a third to...
