DBS Group

The 20-year Treasury yield at 5.42% is the part I am watching most closely. Even if the Fed delivers the expected hike, the bigger question for me is how long yields stay elevated. Higher long-term yields can keep pressure on growth and tech valuations, so I would rather stay patient than chase a relief rally.

For Singapore, I am also watching the banks closely. $DBS(D05.SG), $OCBC Bank(O39.SG) and $UOB(U11.SG) have held up relatively well, but the Fed decision could quickly shift expectations on rates and fund flows. For me, the key is not the headline hike itself, but whether the Fed signals a slower or faster path from here.

I am very disappointed with the Crypto Clarity Act outcome. I expect good news and…..the outcome is so disappointing. I do not understand why the senators blocked disagrees with the act.

Failed the 60-vote threshold 49–50 early this morning. It is ready a “Big setback” for US crypto rules.🥹🥹 no chance for BTC to reclaim 100k again by year end.😞

Talks about slowing down AI is nothing new. It is indeed warranted that development has to be done in a responsible way. but this isn't something that will actually slow anyone down. a lot od noise, pullback is good for entry.

The rate of progress in AI has been unprecedented and unmatched. The fear is that we can lose control of the technology and create something that can be a danger to us. This may sound like a familiar plotline from one of the movies that Hollywood churned out in the past but I think it is a very valid concern. Our laws are also having to play catch up.

With the emergence of a second war in the middle east, analysts are forecasting 2 rate hikes this year instead of the original 1. A high 90% probability of rate hike in a few days' time would probably see FED raising interest rate for the first time since 2023. Though I would not be surprised if Trump's pressure on FED leads to them holding off for yet another period of time before the inevitable will happen.

I think today's trading session would be the calm before the storm, with most stocks already in "the sea of red" yesterday. FED'S rate decision on Thurs early morning would be crucial: though I believe most stock prices have already started pricing in rate hike, of it does happen, brace yourself for more impact.

Many factors that tell the narrative that if the market will hike rates and triple witching then markets most likely drop more. However, will the general market be a drop then rebound next week or more selling gets more selling pressure due to it being in negative gamma flip line? Don't rush, don't predict. Chill and sit out if the market is too rushed for you(myself) included.

Wednesday, tomorrow night, is the Federal Reserve going to hike the interest rate ? Is the US market also expected the rate hike ?

Big Week Ahead With FOMC & BOJ Meetings

If you thought the market tremors earlier this year was intense, this super central bank week could trigger an even sharper selloff.

Cross border Yen borrowing - the ultimate engine of the carry trade balloons to a massive 360 trillion yen or USD 2.35 trillion. Global macro traders have used this incredibly cheap debt to finance riskier, high yielding assets worldwide, especially tech giants.

The Bank of Japan is widely expected to aggressively lift its policy rate on Friday to 1.25%. This marks the fastest tightening sequence in half a century. The era of virtually free money in Japan is over.

Fasten our seatbelts. It is going to be a bumpy ride this week.

All the stories and fear about AI could just be noise. US wont slow down given that China isnt slowing down. 1-2 hikes in 2026? Maybe chance to buy the dip, if any, if drops further short term.