Samsung Securities: Hyperscalers to have a temporary FCF deficit period spanning from 2Q26 to 3Q28, followed by a dramatic expansion in FCF from 2029 through 2030.
> CapEx Growth as a Rational Investment for RPO: The increase in capital expenditure is driven by rapid growth in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO)—long-term signed contracts—requiring front-loaded CapEx to fulfill future revenue.> Strong Future Visibility: For instance, Amazon highlighted that a substantial portion of its additional capacity for 2027 is already contracted, with considerable portions of 2028 capacity also pre-booked.> Break-Even and Payoff Timeline: Server and network investment break-even occurs in under 3 years on average, allowing for meaningful FCF generation for the subsequent 2 to 3 years.$Meta Platforms(META.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Dell Tech(DELL.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Oracle(ORCL.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)
Share your thoughtsWhat's on your mind?
0 / 2,000
- S
Today we have set out how we’re building AI to accelerate science and improve people’s lives. Just some examples in the last week or so:
- Mapped all 9B possible single letter genetic changes across the human genome with AlphaGenome Atlas and made it openly available to researchers.- Billions of decisions depend on weather predictions so we introduced WeatherNext 3, our most accurate and capable global weather AI model to date.- We published AI & Economy ATLAS, a comprehensive open-access look at how people are using AI globally.- AI has enabled extraordinary advances in language translation. Today our services are available in nearly 300 languages, spoken by 7B peopleWe’re focusing our efforts on four key areas: health, natural disaster and weather resilience, learning, and economic opportunity.Source: Sundar Pichai
- V
Received the dividend for $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) today
Not much, but it's still a gain 😂
- A
Shortages continue for TSMC’s top production processes, 3nm and 2nm, and CoWoS advanced packaging, media report, mostly locked up by Nvidia and Apple. Amazon AWS has won more 3nm capacity recently, while MediaTek continues to seek more 2nm/3nm capacity and CoWoS-S/L packaging for smartphone chips and Google TPUs.
MediaTek is said to be on the short end of capacity allocation from TSMC due to Google’s TPU v9, which will split packaging orders between TSMC's CoWoS-L and Intel's EMIB-T. The MediaTek-assisted 3nm TPU v8t is to enter mass production in the 4th quarter and scale up further in 2027AWS continues to scale up orders for next-gen chips, boosted by partnerships with Alchip, Marvell, Qualcomm.Apple is now TSMC’s chief 2nm customer, for A20 Pro chips used in premium iPhones. Nvidia is the primary 3nm client.TSMC’s 2nm capacity will hit 100,000 wafers-per-month (wpm) by late October, with 50,000 each at Fab 20 in Hsinchu and Fab 22 in Kaohsiung.3nm capacity will reach 185,000wpm by late October.Overflow orders for advanced packaging are mostly expected to go to SiliconWare Precision, part of the ASE Group $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) $Advanced Semiconductor Engineering(ASX.US)Source: Dan Nystedt
- F
Featured$Paypal(PYPL.US)
PayPal: The Takeover Changes the Game
PayPal just got interesting.
Stripe and Advent reportedly put more than US$53B on the table — valuing PayPal at US$60.50 a share. That says plenty about what sits underneath the battered share price: 430M+ accounts, Venmo, a huge merchant network and billions in recurring cash flow.
But let’s not get carried away. Payments is crowded, growth is no longer explosive and competition from Stripe, Apple Pay and Google Pay isn’t going away.
The numbers still tell an interesting story. FY2026 revenue was around US$30.5B, operating margin about 16% and free cash flow roughly US$5.4B. That’s a lot of cash for a company trading well below its previous highs.
For me, the bid makes PayPal more interesting — but not enough to chase the stock.
Options investors have another angle. With takeover headlines potentially lifting implied volatility, cash-secured puts around major support could make sense. A bull put spread is the more defensive play if downside risk needs to be capped.
The takeaway? Buy the valuation, not the takeover story.
Not financial advice.
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - L
A "bombshell" just dropped as Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, backed by leaders like Sam Altman and Elon Musk, called for the deliberate slowdown ("pacing" but not halting) in launching next-generation frontier AI models. This is supposed to give safety testing, evaluation frameworks, and alignment research enough time to keep pace as AI systems move toward autonomous capability thresholds.
As chipmakers serve as the primary proxy bet on AI expansion, the call to "pump the brakes" created an immediate sentiment and valuation shock:
* Sell-Off & Support Levels: $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) shares experienced an immediate pullback of ~3.5% to 8%, testing near-term support levels around $210–$212.
* Capex Growth Expectations: Nvidia’s valuation relies heavily on cloud hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon) making continuous multi-billion-dollar investments in GPU clusters. "Pacing" means slower model iterations, signalling potential delays or moderation in near-term hardware orders.
But I think this is an expectations recalibration rather than a fundamental demand collapse, since enterprise inference workloads and current model deployments should still remain active.
As such, I'm holding on to my $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)shares and will add when it hits by accumulation level.
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - O
FeaturedBeginner guide to catalyst 🤖🐶 Gemini Desktop App: Is This the Next Catalyst for Alphabet?
My Options Puppy view: I don’t buy a stock simply because it launches a new app. I look for the combination of catalyst + fundamentals + technical analysis + forward-looking expectations. Google’s lat...
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - S
$Netflix(NFLX.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) and $Illinois Tool Works(ITW.US) took my paydays off for good payday %. I now settle into the full swing with cushion.
Source: Sunrise Trader
- A
$Broadcom(AVGO.US)
Context: I like Broadcom because it sits right at the heart of AI infrastructure. While most people focus on GPUs, companies like Google and Meta work with Broadcom on custom AI chips and high-speed networking. Its software business also brings in steady cash flow, giving the company a strong foundation beyond AI.
My trade: My average cost is $355.172, and with AVGO around 362, I’m sitting on a small gain. I’m holding my shares today and not adding more. With strong demand for custom AI chips, networking, and solid software cash flow, I’m comfortable letting the position run while keeping my risk under control.
Takeaway: Broadcom has strong exposure to AI through both custom chips and networking. In your semiconductor portfolio, do you prefer GPU companies or custom ASIC players like Broadcom?
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - A
TSMC 2nm and 3nm capacity expansion shows why revenue will hit new record highs in 2027, media report:
- 2nm capacity to rise 22% to 110,000 wafers per month (wpm) by mid-2027, from 90,000 at end-2026- 3nm capacity will rise ~70% to 210,000wpm by mid-2027 vs end-2025: 2026-end: 180,000wpm 2025-end: 120,000 – 130,000wpm$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Apple(AAPL.US) #semiconductorsSource: Dan Nystedt
