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Breaking: Michael Burry says AI's biggest customers are "tokenmaxxing"

The pyramid of customers who become competitors:

Tier 1: frontier model builders: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, Meta, xAI. 7 to 10 companies

Tier 2: vertical LLM builders: Salesforce, ServiceNow, SAP, Bloomberg, IBM. 30 to 50 companies

Tier 3: Fortune 500 building proprietary AI: JPMorgan, UnitedHealth, Walmart, CVS. 200 to 500 companies

Tier 4: true pure consumers: mid-market companies and traditional manufacturers. Fewer companies remain as they climb the pyramid, per Burry's SubStack

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. FOMC decision week began with a clear AI rotation: long software, short semis. Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), Marvell $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US), Sandisk $Sandisk(SNDK.US), AMD $AMD(AMD.US), Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US), Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US), CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US), and Intel $Intel(INTC.US) were down 3%-7%, while Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US), Atlassian $Atlassian(TEAM.US), CrowdStrike $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US), ServiceNow $ServiceNow(NOW.US), Adobe $Adobe(ADBE.US), and Intuit $Intuit(INTU.US) were up 2%-5%. The move reflected a market trying to reprice the AI trade after the weekend’s safety debate around Dario’s essay. Semis and neoclouds sold off because their bull case is tied directly to continued AI capex growth which the market interpreted as slowing down if the pace of frontier model development slows down. At the same time, Trump rejected the calls to slow down as he posted that AI needs a “STRONG AND SMART” president rather than guardrails, said the U.S. was leading China in AI, and separately said Iran wanted to make a deal and that the US was open to engaging. Oil crossed $105 and the US 10-year treasury yield crossed 5%. The Fed will make their decision for a rate hike on Wednesday.

2. Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US), Nvidia $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), and Booz Allen Hamilton are reportedly restricting Anthropic’s Fable model for sensitive work over concerns about its data-retention policies, according to The Information. Some enterprise customers are demanding irrevocable zero-data-retention guarantees before putting proprietary information into the model. Anthropic reportedly introduced rolling 30-day usage logs for safety monitoring in June, while its planned option for eligible customers to store logs themselves can still be revoked. Palantir is withholding Fable from its platform until it receives irrevocable zero-data-retention guarantees, Nvidia is limiting Fable to less-sensitive work while using Nemotron for sensitive internal projects, and Booz Allen is excluding Fable from work involving its proprietary cybersecurity software.

3. Trump called Jensen Huang during the All-In Summit and was put on speaker phone, where he defended the AI data center buildout and pushed back on recent concerns. “I'm telling you it's all a hoax. The data centers are great. They make people wealthy. They make states wealthy. AI is bigger than the internet. These people are playing right into the hands of China. We're not going to let that happen,” Trump said. Jensen responded, “You're right, we're not going to let that happen sir.” Jensen also said the fears from over the weekend were made up and that the companies involved have the control they need to navigate the concerns.

4. OpenAI has acquired Glass Imaging, an AI camera startup founded by former Apple engineers, for more than $300M. Glass is working to bring DSLR-like image quality to smartphones, and the deal comes as OpenAI and Jony Ive continue developing new consumer hardware. OpenAI’s exact plans for Glass remain unclear, but the acquisition is notable given Glass was valued at roughly $100M just last year.

5. Truist initiated Nebius $Nebius(NBIS.US) at Buy with a $355 price target, calling it a scaling AI-native hyperscaler still early in its infrastructure buildout. The firm believes consensus 2027E ARR estimates are conservative given recent pricing of $20M-$25M/MW for 1-3 year deals and $40M-$50M/MW for shorter-duration contracts. Truist sees a major opportunity ahead, estimating a $2.1T annual revenue opportunity at the cloud layer by 2030E, with scarcity and contract economics supporting upside to pricing and revenue. The firm also sees multiple paths for Nebius to reach 20%-30% adjusted EBIT margins over the medium term.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 3.2M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.6M contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 957K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 906K contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 874K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 835K contracts, $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 734K contracts, and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 688K contracts.

7. U.S. consumers aged 40-49 now account for 26.8% of new consumer bankruptcies, their highest share since Q3 2015 and the largest of any age group. The 50-59 group represents another 23.1%, bringing Americans aged 40-59 to 49.9% of all new consumer bankruptcies, the highest share since Q1 2017. For perspective, that figure peaked at 54.3% in Q4 2011 after the 2008 Financial Crisis. Consumers aged 70+ now make up 21.5% of new bankruptcies, their highest share since Q2 2017, while Americans aged 18-29 account for just 5.9%, the lowest since Q2 2014.

8. JPMorgan upgraded IREN $IREN(IREN.US) to Overweight and raised its price target to $65 from $46, saying the company is emerging as a top-tier neocloud provider. JPM cited IREN’s NVIDIA partnership, stronger customer momentum, and rising AI infrastructure pricing, noting neocloud contracts have moved from roughly $10-$15/W to $15-$20/W+, while customer prepayments of 25%-50% are helping fund GPU purchases. IREN has raised its year-end 2026 ARR target to as much as $4B, with roughly $1B of operating ARR today. JPM also highlighted IREN’s Microsoft buildout, recent deal with an unnamed frontier AI lab. Looking into 2027, JPM believes IREN’s planned ~0.5 GW expansion could command materially higher pricing, with deals above $15/W creating significant upside to the outlook.

9. Global semiconductor revenue hit a record $425B in Q2 2026, up 31.4% QoQ, according to Omdia. Memory accounted for more than half of total revenue, driven by AI demand and rising DRAM, NAND, and NOR pricing. Even excluding memory, semiconductor revenue grew more than 10% QoQ, well above the historical Q2 average of just over 3%. The industry generated $752B in revenue in the first half of 2026 alone, and Omdia expects Q3 revenue to surpass $500B, pushing the first nine months of 2026 above $1.25T.

10. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) has begun rolling out its new Siri AI in beta with iOS 27, adding personal context across messages, emails, and photos, plus onscreen awareness and systemwide app actions. The new Siri can find information across a user’s device, understand what is on screen, draft emails, add calendar events, and take actions across supported apps. Apple says the new Apple Intelligence architecture uses its own foundation models built in collaboration with Google Gemini, with processing split between on-device models and Private Cloud Compute.

11. U.S. diesel prices have officially risen to a record $6.20/gallon, up 78% over the last 9 months. In California, diesel has surged to a record $8.14/gallon, with some areas approaching $9.00/gallon. The spike comes as the U.S. enters peak diesel-demand season while supply remains historically tight. Jet fuel is also surging, now at $4.35/gallon, up 61% over the last 10 weeks, with prices rising another 10% in the past week as U.S. oil pushes above $100/barrel. Airline fares were already up 23% YoY in August, and if fuel stays elevated, September CPI could show fares rising as much as 30%.

12. The Clarity Act $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US) $ETH moved back into focus after Senate Republicans released a “final” draft ahead of Tuesday’s cloture vote, saying the text includes 126 Democratic-requested changes after more than a year of talks. The bill still needs 60 votes to advance, with Republicans holding 53 seats. Key updates include new ethics language requiring covered officials and spouses to divest certain crypto interests or place them in a qualified blind trust, a role for state attorneys general in enforcement, and a Treasury “circuit breaker” that could restrict stablecoin rewards if payment stablecoins trigger major deposit flight from community banks. The U.S. Senate is scheduled to hold a key preliminary cloture vote on the Clarity Act on Tuesday afternoon, September 15, 2026, at approximately 2:15 PM ET.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit