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A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) is reportedly seeking $40B in financing, led by Apollo, to fund a massive purchase of NVIDIA $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) AI chips, according to the Financial Times. The proposed financing includes roughly $10B in bank loans and $30B of investment-grade debt, with the transaction expected to close in 2027. Elon Musk said in August that SpaceX had “decided to build exclusively on NVIDIA,” specifically highlighting the company's Vera Rubin architecture as SpaceX accelerates investment in AI compute and data center infrastructure.

2. AMD $AMD(AMD.US) CEO Lisa Su said AI compute demand continues to outpace supply and expects strong demand to persist for the next several years, with AMD planning to substantially increase supply in 2027. Su said AMD has already expanded supply this year but “could definitely use more,” thanking TSMC for bringing additional manufacturing capacity online while noting that memory remains broadly supply constrained. She added that AMD is working closely with memory suppliers and customers to ensure capacity ramps in sync while keeping its current business model unchanged. Su also described Taiwan as “very critical” to AMD, saying the company plans to increase its investment there while continuing to explore new packaging technologies.

3. Uber $Uber Tech(UBER.US) is acquiring ezCater for $2.3B in cash, expanding Uber Eats into the workplace catering market. ezCater has more than 140,000 restaurant partners, generates over $2.5B in trailing 12-month gross bookings, is growing at a high-teens annual rate, and has average order values above $400 while remaining profitable on a non-GAAP operating income basis. Following the acquisition, ezCater will be integrated with Uber Eats and Uber for Business, strengthening Uber's position in high-value group orders and enterprise food delivery. Uber said the transaction is expected to be margin accretive.

4. Penguin Solutions $Penguin Solutions(PENG.US) just delivered a blowout Q4, with revenue of $566.7M versus $521M expected, up 68% YoY, while adjusted EPS of $1.00 beat the $0.77 estimate by roughly 30%. Adjusted EBITDA surged 115% YoY to $93M, while FY2026 revenue reached $1.73B and adjusted EPS came in at $2.87, both ahead of expectations. The bigger story was guidance, with Penguin now expecting FY2027 revenue around a $2.43B midpoint, implying roughly 40% growth and coming in about 10% above consensus, while adjusted EPS is expected at $4.45 ± $0.70 versus $3.38 expected. AI infrastructure momentum also accelerated sharply, with 6 new data center customers added in Q4, including 4 neoclouds, alongside a customer deployment involving a 36,000-GPU AI factory in Norway and another platform built around NVIDIA GB300 NVL72. Management said performance accelerated significantly in the second half following the launch of its AI Factory Platform and increased focus on the data center market.

5. Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) and Constellation Energy $Constellation Energy(CEG.US) signed a 20-year agreement to add 890 MW of nuclear power to the PJM grid through upgrades at 11 reactors, backed by $4.3B of investment. The companies also signed a separate 15-year power supply agreement covering an additional 2.7 GW, with the first reactor uprate expected to come online in 2028. The announcement lifted sentiment across the power sector, with Vistra $Vistra(VST.US) surging 12% as investors continued to price in growing electricity demand from AI data centers and hyperscale infrastructure.

6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 2.4M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 1.2M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 914K contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 802K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 798K contracts, $Broadcom(AVGO.US) with 702K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 699K contracts, $AMD(AMD.US) with 627K contracts, and $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 511K contracts.

7. Marvell $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) raised its long-term outlook, now expecting approximately $20B in FY2028 revenue, up from its prior $18B target, and projecting $70B–$90B in annual revenue by FY2031. CEO Matt Murphy also significantly increased the company's estimate for the AI market opportunity, now forecasting a roughly $400B AI market by 2030, more than 4x its previous $94B opportunity estimate for 2028. The updated outlook reflects Marvell's growing confidence in sustained AI infrastructure spending and demand for custom silicon, networking, and data center connectivity solutions.

8. CrowdStrike $CrowdStrike(CRWD.US) is expanding its cybersecurity startup accelerator with AWS and NVIDIA, with the 2027 program focused on startups building security solutions for the agentic AI era. Participants will receive access to CrowdStrike Falcon Foundry and APIs, AWS technical and go-to-market support, and NVIDIA Inception resources. The accelerator has supported more than 90 startups to date, which have collectively raised nearly $1B. Up to 10 finalists will present at RSAC 2027, with participating companies also eligible for potential investment from CrowdStrike’s Falcon Fund.

9. Apple $Apple(AAPL.US) is reportedly making a major push into the smart home, developing a new doorbell, smart lock, thermostat, and other accessories in partnership with LG Electronics. The products are expected to work alongside Apple’s upcoming smart home hub, updated HomePod mini, and refreshed Apple TV, giving the company a much broader ecosystem for home control, security, and automation. The home hub, new HomePod mini, and updated Apple TV are expected to be unveiled on October 13. The move would push Apple beyond HomeKit software and third-party accessories and toward a more vertically integrated smart-home platform built around its own hardware, software, services, and ecosystem.

10. Nokia $Nokia Oyj(NOK.US) CEO Justin Hotard said AI infrastructure demand continues to outpace supply, arguing that supply constraints—not weak demand—are the primary factor limiting deployment. “I don’t think you can say in any manner we’re overbuilding today,” Hotard said, adding that if Nokia and its customers could build 2x faster, they likely would. He said that gives him confidence the industry is “still in the early days” of the AI infrastructure buildout and argued demand does not depend on a constant stream of new frontier AI models. According to Hotard, even without another major frontier model release over the next three years, the industry could still make tremendous progress deploying today's AI technology, with memory supply and power availability remaining the biggest constraints.

11. Ray Dalio is warning that the U.S. could be headed toward a debt crisis within the next 2–3 years, arguing that persistent deficits, rising interest costs, and a shrinking pool of available savings are pushing the country toward the limits of its debt cycle. He said the issue is not any specific Treasury yield, but rather the growing mismatch between the amount of capital the government needs to borrow and the willingness of investors, particularly foreign creditors, to finance it. Dalio said he is currently short government debt and long gold, recommending that diversified portfolios hold 5–15% in gold, while noting he owns only about 1% in Bitcoin and remains skeptical of digital assets. On AI, Dalio said investors will either “ride the crest of the AI wave or drown under it,” arguing that AI can increasingly handle the entire investment process, but that humans still need to define the decision framework and challenge the model’s conclusions rather than blindly accepting them.

12. Cantor Fitzgerald said the recent selloff in Western Digital $Western Digital(WDC.US) and Seagate $Seagate Tech(STX.US) following Toshiba’s plan to double nearline hard drive capacity by FY2027 is overdone and presents a buying opportunity. The firm argues Toshiba’s expansion is unlikely to materially change industry supply because demand from AI and data centers continues to outpace capacity, Toshiba’s technology still trails competitors, and long-term agreements support pricing stability for WDC and STX. The selloff in those names could have also been the reason for the broader memory weakness in the sector affecting companies like $Micron Tech(MU.US) Micron, $Sandisk(SNDK.US) Sandisk, and $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) SK Hynix. Cantor also questioned Toshiba’s ability to execute its expansion plans, noting a similar effort announced in 2022 failed to materialize. The firm expects AI-driven data generation to keep nearline HDD demand ahead of supply through 2030 and beyond, supporting 70%+ long-term margins, expanding free cash flow, and continued share repurchases for both WDC and STX, which remain its Top Picks.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit

I believe $Tesla(TSLA.US) is a great company with a unique opportunity in front of it to transform how we travel. But loving a company doesn’t mean you should love the stock. Many investors on X don’t get the basic investing concept that valuation matters — even for great companies. TSLA FY’26 P/E of 234x vs +45% forward eps growth (5.2x PEG) is rich by any standard.

5-year returns: $Tesla(TSLA.US) +43%, NDX +111%.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Here's a full recap:

1. SpaceX $SpaceX(SPCX.US) rose about 7.6% on Monday to roughly $171.09 after Elon Musk confirmed that discussions with TSMC are real, though still in the early stages. The talks follow reports that TSMC is exploring a role in Terafab, the Texas chip venture tied to Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, which could eventually invest $119B to manufacture chips for products including Optimus, Cybercab, and future AI infrastructure. The prospect of TSMC participating was viewed as strengthening SpaceX’s long-term AI chip supply strategy and potentially reducing Intel’s future role in the project, helping send Intel shares lower while TSMC reached a new all-time high. A reiterated Morgan Stanley Overweight rating and $300 price target provided additional support for the stock.

2. Meta $Meta Platforms(META.US) and Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) are reportedly reducing internal use of Anthropic’s Claude as they increasingly shift employees toward their own AI tools, according to The Information. Microsoft had been on pace to spend at least $1B annually on internal Claude usage earlier this year but has since reduced that level by more than one-third. At Meta, the number of Claude Code users has reportedly fallen to about 30,000 from roughly 60,000 earlier this year, while MetaCode now has more than 30,000 users and Muse Code has surpassed 6,000. Despite the shift, Meta still spent more than $105M on Claude Code over a recent 28-day period.

3. JPMorgan expects the memory market $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $Western Digital(WDC.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $Seagate Tech(STX.US) to remain supply-constrained through at least 2028, with customer order discussions already extending as far out as 2031. The firm forecasts HBM bit demand to grow 63%, non-HBM server DRAM demand to increase 37%, and CY2027 HBM blended ASPs to rise 54% year over year. JPM also believes Micron’s expectation of having more than 35% of revenue covered by long-term supply agreements through 2030 may prove conservative, noting that several Asian memory manufacturers already have 50%+ of their capacity secured under similar long-term agreements.

4. RBC Capital Markets reiterated its Outperform rating on Zeta $Zeta Global(ZETA.US) and raised its price target to $40 from $31, implying roughly 22.6% upside. Analyst Matt Swanson said recent investor meetings highlighted growing momentum around strategic partnerships and adoption of Athena, while emphasizing that RBC does not believe these opportunities are materially reflected in either current guidance or the company’s 2030 outlook. RBC also argued that Zeta has increasingly differentiated itself from traditional ad-tech peers and is now being valued more like a software company. The latest increase marks RBC’s third price target raise on Zeta this calendar year.

5. Ondas $Ondas(ONDS.US) secured a $56M order for Electronic Safe & Arm Devices (ESADs) supporting a European loitering munition program. The contract will be fulfilled through Ondas' recently acquired Bron Technologies and GATE Technologies businesses. ESADs manage a munition’s safety, arming, and initiation functions, with production set to move forward using technology that has already been qualified for deployment. The award further expands Ondas’ presence in the growing European defense and precision munitions market.

6. Bank of America, Citi, and Morgan Stanley have begun syndicating a $60B debt package tied to Anthropic’s lease of Google-designed TPUs supplied through Broadcom $Broadcom(AVGO.US), making it the largest chip-financing deal to date. The package includes $42B of senior secured debt backed by Broadcom and $18B of junior debt without Broadcom guarantees, with Blackstone already committing roughly $9B to the junior tranche. The financing is expected to fund Anthropic’s 2027 chip orders, with Broadcom’s support helping reduce borrowing costs and potentially allowing the senior debt to be refinanced into the investment-grade market. The deal centers on Google $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) TPUs, developed with Broadcom as an alternative to NVIDIA $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) GPUs for large-scale AI workloads, while Broadcom filings also indicate Anthropic could issue up to $42B of convertible notes to Broadcom to cover future lease payments.

7. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories fell another 767,000 barrels last week to 283M barrels, the lowest level since 1982. The decline marks the 28th consecutive weekly drawdown, leaving the SPR down nearly 133M barrels from its recent peak. As a result, America's emergency crude oil reserves continue to sit near their lowest levels in more than four decades, underscoring the limited strategic buffer available despite elevated geopolitical risks.

8. The Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points in September to 81.9, its lowest level since April 2014, marking a fourth consecutive monthly decline and an 11.2-point drop over that period. The Present Situation Index declined 7.9 points to 109.3, its weakest reading since February 2021, while the Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, its lowest since April 2025 and a third straight monthly decline. Confidence has weakened across all age groups and nearly all income brackets over the past six months. Consumers increasingly cited high prices, the cost of goods and services, and oil and gasoline prices as the primary factors weighing on the economic outlook.

9. Brazilian markets rallied after Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, with investors reacting positively to the prospect of a more market-friendly policy agenda ahead of the October 25 runoff. Brazilian assets including Nu Holdings $NU Holdings(NU.US), the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF $EWZ, and other Brazil-exposed equities such as MercadoLibre $Mercadolibre(MELI.US) outperformed following the result. The market reaction reflected optimism around potential fiscal and economic policy changes, though the election remains undecided with a runoff still to come.

10. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) with 4.0M contracts, $Tesla(TSLA.US) with 3.2M contracts, $SpaceX(SPCX.US) with 1.7M contracts, $Apple(AAPL.US) with 1.1M contracts, $Microsoft(MSFT.US) with 874K contracts, $Micron Tech(MU.US) with 872K contracts, $Amazon(AMZN.US) with 844K contracts, $Intel(INTC.US) with 835K contracts, $Meta Platforms(META.US) with 790K contracts, and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) with 502K contracts.

11. OpenAI is reportedly in talks with UAE investment funds, including MGX, and BlackRock $BlackRock(BLK.US) to anchor a new $30B+ funding round at a valuation of roughly $1.4T, according to Bloomberg. UAE investors have discussed contributing as much as $10B collectively, while existing backers Thrive Capital and Andreessen Horowitz are also considering additional investments, alongside discussions with the University of California endowment. Rather than negotiating with a lead investor, OpenAI is reportedly presenting investors with a fixed ~$1.4T pre-money valuation. The fundraising comes as OpenAI continues to delay an IPO until at least 2027 while raising unprecedented amounts of capital to fund AI model development and large-scale infrastructure expansion.

12. Melius upgraded Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT.US) to Buy with a $665 price target, arguing that growing concerns around AI safety are actually strengthening Microsoft's competitive position. The firm said enterprises are increasingly choosing to spend on a secure AI wrapper that can route models to the right tasks, manage AI agents, and provide governance rather than relying directly on frontier AI labs. Melius believes Satya Nadella and Microsoft's leadership are becoming the "adults in charge" for AI security and governance, and now expects Azure revenue growth to accelerate to above 50% by F4Q27.

WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Source: amit