HK-US Market Review (10.20) Don't panic, this round of adjustment is an opportunity, not a crisis

Dear friends, there have been many voices in the market during this recent decline—some say it's due to escalating tariff wars, others blame emotional sell-offs, and some even think the bull market is over. But what I want to say is: don't be misled by this noise. In my view, this decline is just a trigger; the real reason is that the market has risen for too long and too fast, and it needs a healthy 'look back'. It's like when you've been running for a while, you need to catch your breath; the same goes for market trends—sometimes it needs to take a break.

1. The tariff war is just the surface; the market's fundamentals remain unchanged

This so-called 'tariff war' escalation is ultimately just part of the game. Trump's side alternates between threats and conciliatory signals—Goldman Sachs' latest report sees it clearly: they believe this is just both sides raising the stakes ahead of the APEC summit, all to gain negotiation leverage. And us? From rare earths to port fees, we hold strong cards. We're not flustered by America's moves—we've long mastered their playbook. So don't be scared by surface noise. As long as negotiations continue and global capital hasn't fled Chinese assets, this volatility is just part of the process.

2. A correction isn't bad—it's building momentum for the next rally

From a macro perspective, the market's 'engine'—the core logic of the bull market—isn't broken. Whether it's policy, liquidity, or corporate earnings, everything remains in a sound range. The short-term decline has actually cooled the market, allowing capital to reallocate and giving us a better entry point. The next key focus should be the policy meeting in late October, the '15th Five-Year Plan,' and the concentrated release of Q3 reports. These are the real catalysts that will determine the market's direction.

3. Patience is the best strategy

Ultimately, investing isn't about who runs the fastest but who stays the steadiest. Right now, the best thing to do is—keep calm. I know many people are nervous seeing their accounts pull back these past few days, but the market is always counterintuitive. To catch big waves, you must endure short-term ups and downs. The market won't rise faster just because you're anxious, but if you panic, you'll often sell at the bottom.

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) : The trend hasn't changed—don't panic

For the Hang Seng Index, the same rule applies—ignore short-term volatility and focus on the long-term trend. As long as the overall pattern is higher highs, there's no need to worry. Today's market showed some signs of recovery, but we'll need to observe its sustainability—though I don't see any major issues. Even if there's another pullback, support around 26,200 remains valid. If it holds, that'll be the starting point for the next rally.

Individual stocks

$MEITUAN(03690.HK) , $JD-SW(09618.HK) , $BABA-W(09988.HK) , $AAC TECH(02018.HK) —my view on these long-term holdings hasn't changed. We've never aimed to buy at the absolute bottom or sell at the absolute top; buying relatively low and selling relatively high is enough. The market will always fluctuate, but as long as the logic and direction are sound, there's no need to overreact.

U.S. stocks

The U.S. market remains slow.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) —keep waiting.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) —I think the adjustment isn't over yet;

$Apple(AAPL.US) —can wait longer;
$Amazon(AMZN.US) —I entered at 217; if it drops to around 200, I'll consider adding.

In short

This decline isn't the end of the bull market—it's just the market 'catching its breath.' Don't panic, and don't try to guess the bottom. The market is shaking out weak hands in the short term, but the long-term logic remains intact. Be patient—opportunities always belong to those who can endure volatility and dare to position during pullbacks.