HK-US Market Review (10.23) Don't panic, this round of pullback is actually a good opportunity to get on board

Dear friends, the recent performance of Hong Kong stocks has indeed been quite "grinding." After two days of rebound, it started to decline again, with the Hang Seng Index retreating nearly 13% from its previous high. Many people panic when they see this kind of trend, thinking that the bull market might be over again. In fact, this kind of adjustment is completely normal—the Hang Seng Tech Index has risen 31% this year and even surged to 6,715 points in early October, hitting a nearly four-year high. After such a sharp rise, it’s only natural to take a breather, right? Seasoned investors know that the market never goes up in a straight line—a technical pullback after consecutive rallies is the healthiest thing possible. On the contrary, for those of us who are always on the lookout for opportunities, this is often the best time to get in.

1. Fed Expectations Clear, Hong Kong Stocks Remain Resilient

First, let’s talk about the macro picture. Recently, expectations for a Fed rate cut have grown stronger. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the October meeting has surged to 96.7%, and the likelihood of another cut in December is also around 96.5%. What does this mean?—Liquidity is about to loosen up. Historically, every time the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle, the Hong Kong stock market has shown significant resilience. Loose liquidity is like a "booster shot" for Hong Kong stocks—no doubt about it.

2. U.S.-China Relations Ease, Negative Factors Being Priced In

Another "trigger" for this decline—U.S.-China trade tensions—has also shown clear signs of improvement. The latest news is that senior officials from both sides have held talks and agreed to hold a new round of trade negotiations as soon as possible. What does this mean?—It means market concerns are cooling. Over the past two years, we’ve seen too many cycles of "rumors—tension—easing," and every time tensions ease even slightly, the Hong Kong tech sector rebounds quickly. So, there’s no need to worry too much about this "fake scare." Short-term dips are good buying opportunities.

3. A Pullback Is Not a Risk, It’s an Opportunity

From an investment logic perspective, this pullback is actually a good thing. Previously, the Hang Seng Tech Index kept hitting new highs, and many people hesitated to add positions. Now, it’s giving us a chance. Honestly, adding positions during a continuous rally can be psychologically challenging, but now that the index has pulled back due to short-term factors, looking at those high-quality stocks again, don’t they suddenly seem more attractive? The market always "breeds opportunities during declines"—that’s a fact.

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) : The Trend Remains, Pullbacks Are Opportunities

As for the Hang Seng Index, I’ll say it again—ignore short-term volatility, focus on the long-term trend. As long as the market keeps making higher highs, there’s no need to worry. This pullback hasn’t changed the overall trend, and my judgment is clear: This is a buying opportunity, not a risk.

Individual Stock Updates

$MEITUAN(03690.HK) , $JD-SW(09618.HK) , $BABA-W(09988.HK) , $AAC TECH(02018.HK) —these are the long-term positions we’ve been building, and I’ve been reminding everyone to add or initiate positions during this decline. The logic hasn’t changed, and there’s no need to panic. The current levels are in the "low-cost accumulation zone," especially for Meituan and Alibaba, where downside is limited—don’t hesitate to take positions.

U.S. Stocks Section

The U.S. market is still moving slowly.

$Tesla(TSLA.US) has finally started to pull back—we can wait longer;

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) —I think the pullback isn’t over yet, no rush;

$Apple(AAPL.US) —wait for a pullback opportunity;

$Amazon(AMZN.US) —I’ve already initiated a position at 217; if it drops to around 200, I’ll consider adding.

In Summary

This decline in Hong Kong stocks is not the end of the bull market but a healthy breather. Don’t be scared by short-term volatility or swayed by external noise. The market is shaking out weak hands in the short term, but the long-term logic remains solid. The essence of the market hasn’t broken—opportunities are actually clearer now. Those who stay steady and dare to position themselves will ultimately have the last laugh.