HK-US Market Review (11.24) Rising fear? Don't panic, this looks more like a bull market correction than a crisis
Dear friends, last Friday the Fear & Greed Index directly dropped to 6.76, which is already a standard "Extreme Fear" state. When was the last time the Fear & Greed Index dropped to single digits? It was April 9th this year—during the global tariff war and "global crash." And the result? The single-digit temperature only lasted for three days, and then the market turned around and went up. This once again verifies the rule we have repeatedly stressed: Rising is the reason for rising, and falling is the reason for falling. The power of trends is always the core driving force behind short-term market movements.
We are now in a "critical turning zone," but we judge it more like a bull market correction
In recent days, the market has clearly entered a state where "falling becomes the reason for falling"—panic sentiment, stampedes, and emotional self-reinforcement are all part of short-term market sentiment. But the key question is: Is this round of decline the end of the bull market or just a correction?
Our judgment is very clear: It is more likely to be a bull market correction. The reasons are very simple:
- The core logic supporting the bull market has not been broken
- The risk-free interest rate is only half of the 2021 peak
- A large amount of capital cannot find a place to go, facing an asset shortage
- The cost-performance ratio of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is still very prominent globally
In other words, what we should really be looking at now is not the rise and fall, but: Is the comparative value of assets already worth positioning? If you just follow the ups and downs of sentiment, you will always be passive.
$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) : The trend hasn't changed, long-term logic is much more important than short-term fluctuations
Many friends are extremely panicked about this wave of correction in the Hang Seng Index. But I still say: Look beyond short-term fluctuations and view the Hang Seng Index with a long-term perspective. As long as it can achieve one wave higher than the last, there is no need to worry about one or two days of volatility. Today's rise actually already explains the problem—the trend is not broken, and the logic is still there. As long as you follow the established strategy, the more it falls, the more opportunities there are.
Hong Kong stocks: After macro suppression, it's actually a window for bargain hunting
$MEITUAN(03690.HK) , $JD-SW(09618.HK) , $BABA-W(09988.HK) , $AAC TECH(02018.HK) —these long-term stocks have all been "beaten down" by macro factors this time, but this is not a bad thing. Last Friday, I said in the new group that you could add Alibaba and BYD, and now the positions look quite good. Once the market stabilizes, these stocks will return to their logical paths, making this a very typical opportunity for bargain hunting.
U.S. stocks: Don't be fooled by the night session, keep waiting for the rhythm
I always emphasize this about U.S. stocks: Don't be misled by the daily fluctuations of the night session. The current movement is more of an illusion; the real price has not yet been reached.
- $Tesla(TSLA.US) : Still bearish
- $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) : Still looking for short opportunities
- $Apple(AAPL.US) : Continue holding the short position at 265
- $Amazon(AMZN.US) : If it can return to around 200, that would be a very good entry point
The rhythm is: Wait for the position, don't chase.
To summarize
- The Fear & Greed Index dropping to single digits is not a risk but a precursor to opportunity
- The April trend has already verified this once
- The bull market logic is completely intact
- The market now looks more like short-term emotional stampeding
- Hong Kong stocks and Chinese assets still have the most outstanding cost-performance ratio globally
- A correction is actually a time for positioning, not a time to doubt yourself
Stay steady, don't let short-term fluctuations scare you into losing your pace. Real opportunities always appear in the midst of "extreme fear."
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