Hong Kong-US Market Review (11.25) Bull Market Correction, Not a Reversal — Hold Steady to Win

Dear friends, I want to put the conclusion first: I believe the current trend is more likely a correction within a bull market rather than the end of the rally. Many people have been panicking after seeing the volatility and pullback over the past two days, but if you lay out the logic, the answer is actually very clear.

1. Risk-free rates are so low—there’s no reason for equity assets not to rise

Current risk-free rates are at half the level of 2021. What does this mean? It means stocks are more valuable and worth investing in now than they were back then. Look at the equity-bond yield spread: in 2021, it was only at the 12th percentile, while now it’s around the 50th percentile. In other words, this is a much more favorable stage. Valuation-wise, it’s not expensive either—there’s no bubble at all. Saying the bull market is over at this point makes no logical sense.

2. Global markets are hitting new highs—A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are the most overdue for a catch-up

The world is currently in a major rate-cutting cycle—liquidity is loose, and big money needs somewhere to go. Major economies like the US, Europe, and Japan are continuously hitting new highs, while A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are still lingering at low levels, far from their historical peaks. In this context, the demand for catch-up and momentum buying is extremely urgent. And don’t forget, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have actually been among the best-performing sectors globally this year. The market’s core logic remains intact—no need to panic.

3. China’s tech sector is truly rising this time—not just PPT concepts

What’s the most fundamental change in this rally? China’s tech sector is genuinely rising. Phenomenal breakthroughs like DeepSeek aren’t something you can hype up with daily press conferences—this is hardcore technological prowess. Look at biotech too: overseas expansion, clinical data, and BD collaborations are unstoppable right now. Why is tech’s rise important? Because this bull market is different from the past: we’ve achieved an “overtaking on the curve” in the most valuable tech directions. That’s why foreign capital is increasingly paying attention to the Chinese market. They’re not looking at sentiment—they’re looking at fundamentals.

4. Policy stance is clear: stabilizing the economy and markets, with continued efforts

The policy environment remains proactive, as I’ve emphasized before. Liquidity continues to improve, industry support is becoming clearer, and domestic growth-stabilizing measures are ongoing. In this macro environment, a correction isn’t a bad thing—it’s actually giving you a chance to get in.

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) : Long-term trend unchanged—no need to fear short-term volatility

Although the Hang Seng Index opened higher and closed lower today, I think this is actually a good thing. As long as the major trend remains intact and the waves keep getting higher,
short-term volatility doesn’t matter at all—just follow the logic. The three stocks I mentioned in the new group last Friday—Alibaba, Xiaomi, and BYD—
are all looking pretty good today. As long as you’re not in a short-term mindset, there’s no need to be swayed by one or two days of movement.

Hong Kong stocks: The lower they fall, the more comfortable the position—corrections are buying opportunities

$MEITUAN(03690.HK) , $JD-SW(09618.HK) , $BABA-W(09988.HK) , $AAC TECH(02018.HK) —the logic for these long-term picks remains intact. As long as you stick to the strategy, corrections are actually golden opportunities to optimize your cost basis.

US stocks: Keep waiting for the right price—don’t be fooled by overnight moves

I’ve emphasized this many times recently: overnight moves are mostly illusions—don’t be misled by short-term volatility.

Stick to the previous approach:

• $Tesla(TSLA.US) : Remain bearish
• $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) : Wait for another shorting chance
• $Apple(AAPL.US) : Hold the 265 short position
• $Amazon(AMZN.US) : If it reaches around 200, that’s a big opportunity

With US stocks, you must wait for the right price—don’t chase.

To summarize briefly

The current trend looks more like a bull market correction rather than a reversal. Low rates, reasonable valuations, a global rate-cutting cycle, and tech’s rise all provide long-term support. The Hang Seng’s trend remains intact—volatility is actually an opportunity. For core Hong Kong stocks, continue adding positions per the strategy. With US stocks, stay steady—wait for the right entry, don’t chase rallies. Stay calm, everyone—don’t let short-term fluctuations disrupt your rhythm.

In a bull market, what you should fear isn’t the drop—it’s the drop scaring you away and making you miss the next wave up.