Analysis of Trump's Visit to China Forecast and Potential Impact on NVIDIA

Regarding Trump's visit to China this time, I think:

It is highly likely that something can be negotiated, but it will be difficult to achieve significant relaxation on high-end AI chips.

First of all, this is not an ordinary meeting but a formal state visit. Since both sides have raised the level of formality to this degree, it indicates that there must have been considerable communication in the preparatory stage. It is unlikely that the final outcome will be just a handshake, a photo, a few diplomatic pleasantries, and then everyone goes home.

Moreover, Chinese culture is "Is it not a joy to have friends come from afar?" Now that the guest has arrived, especially the world's leading power, the United States, China will certainly want to make the occasion very dignified.

China is willing to give face and show goodwill.

But the prerequisite is that the other side knows what respect means.

If Trump is here to make a deal, then it is highly likely that results can be achieved this time;

If he is here to posture, to apply maximum pressure, thinking that just because he handled the Middle East he is invincible, then things could easily become complicated.

Because China can negotiate, but it will not accept being pressured into negotiations.

China can offer a way out, but it will not accept being stepped on while offering that way out.

The areas most likely to yield results from this visit should be trade and supply chains.

For example, whether tariffs will be eased in phases, whether the two sides will restart trade communication mechanisms, whether China will increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products, energy, and aircraft, and whether stable arrangements can be formed for rare earth and critical mineral supply chains.

These are all things that can be negotiated, exchanged, and used by each side to report back to their constituencies.

Trump needs results.

He needs to prove he can make a "big deal," and he needs to give an account to voters, businesses, and the capital markets.

China also needs to stabilize the external environment, ease foreign capital expectations, improve market confidence, and reduce the uncertainty caused by the continued deterioration of U.S.-China relations.

Therefore, both sides have the motivation to get something done.

If positive signals are finally released on tariffs, procurement, rare earths, energy, agriculture, aircraft orders, etc., it will be a clear positive for the market.

Hong Kong stocks, Chinese ADRs, and A-shares will see a recovery in risk appetite, and U.S. tech stocks will also benefit.

The market's favorite thing is not a complete resolution of problems, but the breaking of the worst-case expectations.

As long as U.S.-China relations shift from "continuing to deteriorate" to "still able to talk, still able to trade, still able to offer a way out," the capital markets will show you a rally first.

However, if the expectation is that NVIDIA can start selling high-end chips, that expectation is a bit too high.

Tariffs can be negotiated, agricultural products can be negotiated, aircraft orders can be negotiated, rare earth arrangements can also be negotiated.

But high-end AI chips are different.

This is no longer an ordinary trade issue; it is a matter of U.S. national strategy.

The U.S. now views advanced AI chips, cutting-edge computing power, and model training capabilities as core resources for future technological and military competition.

In the eyes of the U.S., this is not simple business; it is strategic control.

Therefore, it is unlikely that the U.S. will suddenly fully open up exports of high-end AI chips because of one visit to China.

Truly top-tier AI chips are unlikely to be exported to China unconditionally and on a large scale.

A more realistic scenario is:

Whether downgraded chips can continue to be sold;

Whether certain specific uses can be approved on a case-by-case basis;

Whether a small opening can be made under licenses, usage restrictions, and compliance supervision;

Whether U.S. companies can retain a portion of the Chinese market without touching national security red lines.

This is the realistic negotiation space.

Not a full opening, but limited relaxation.

Not opening the door wide, but seeing if the door can be pried open a crack.

So from NVIDIA's perspective, this visit is certainly worth watching.

But the most optimistic scenario should not be taken as the baseline scenario.

If it's just a moderation of tariffs, that's a risk appetite positive for NVIDIA.

An easing of U.S.-China relations, reduced uncertainty in the semiconductor supply chain, and reduced valuation pressure on tech stocks will improve market sentiment.

But this is mainly a sentiment and valuation positive.

What is more directly relevant for NVIDIA is whether there is any marginal change in chip export restrictions.

The focus is not on the U.S. suddenly fully opening up high-end AI chips, but on whether it's possible to shift from "almost completely blocked" to "limited, controlled, conditional sales."

Even if there is just a slight relaxation on downgraded chips, case-by-case licenses, or a compliant export mechanism, the market will reassess NVIDIA's revenue potential in the Chinese market.

Because the demand for NVIDIA is not absent; it's being suppressed by policy.

As long as Chinese customers regain some form of compliant procurement channel, even if they can't buy the most advanced chips, it's a positive for NVIDIA.

But if there are no substantial changes in chips in the end, and both sides just say "strengthen communication," then for NVIDIA, it can only be considered a sentiment positive, not a fundamental revaluation.

Of course, the biggest variable in this visit is not the agenda, but Trump himself.

His style is well known:

Apply maximum pressure first, then create leverage, and finally declare himself the winner.

This approach might work well on some smaller countries, but China is not that kind of counterparty.

China can negotiate and is willing to make deals, but what it dislikes the most is being pressured publicly, being talked down to, and being forced to make statements.

Especially the current leadership is even less likely to accept being pressured into negotiations with a "winner's attitude."

So whether this visit goes smoothly depends on whether Trump is here to make a deal or to posture.

If he is willing to offer a way out for both sides, allowing each to report back to their constituencies, then it is highly likely that results can be achieved.

If he thinks that just because he recently handled the Middle East issue, his diplomatic prestige is high, his leverage is strong, and he comes to China wanting to adopt a posture of "I'm used to winning, you have to cooperate with me," then things will be troublesome.

China can give face, but it will not accept being humiliated.

This statement might be the most important underlying logic of this visit.

Therefore, my final judgment on this Trump visit to China is:

It is highly likely that there will be results, but the results will mainly be in trade and supply chains.

At most, there might be marginal communication or limited openings on chips; a full opening of high-end AI chips is unlikely.

The market outlook is positive in the short term, but whether a bigger rally can form depends on whether the results are concrete enough.