NVDA CDS Hits Record High, Flashes Warning; BYD Humanoid Robot Set for Aug Debut | Daily News Recap

0728 | Dolphin Focus:

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. Foreign media report that Shanghai state-owned enterprises have started small-batch production of domestic immersion DUV lithography systems, with five units planned this year and first deliveries eyed for SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and CXMT. Most components are localized, but some critical parts still rely on overseas supply, and fabs will need lengthy line validation after delivery, making large-scale substitution of ASML tools unlikely near term. The headlines lifted sentiment in China semi-cap names, but there is no corporate confirmation yet, and follow-ups on delivery and yield ramp are needed.

2. Moonshot AI open-sourced the full model weights of Kimi K3, a 2.8 trillion-parameter system supporting million-token context and native multimodal understanding, while releasing multiple training techniques. The announcement quickly went viral among developers, topping Hugging Face’s trending list within 30 minutes. Cloud vendors at home and abroad kicked off Day 0 adaptation, with Alibaba Cloud and Huawei Ascend first to deploy, sharply lowering the bar for on-prem deployment of trillion-parameter LLMs and accelerating the domestic LLM ecosystem.

🐬 Stocks

1. $MEITUAN(03690.HK)

Meituan rolled out CatPaw, an all-scenario AI Agent platform powered by its in-house LongCat 2.0 model, bringing digital-employee capabilities in biz. analytics, marketing planning, and automated ops to local-services merchants. The platform is already live internally at Meituan, covering 90k employees and over 30k agents. By integrating its base model with industry agents and leveraging its local-services data, Meituan is moving early on AI monetization in services and building differentiated moats vs. general-purpose AI vendors.

2. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

According to foreign media, NVDA is in talks with OpenAI to provide a $250bn financing guarantee to help OpenAI secure SoftBank’s 10GW data center in Ohio. The guarantee would be roughly 4x Nvidia’s cash, jolting risk appetite; NVDA’s 5Y CDS spiked intraday on Jul 27, the biggest one-day jump since the contract launched, reflecting concerns that contingent liabilities could widen credit exposure. The deal remains under negotiation and terms may change; if executed, it would lock in long-term chip orders but introduce potential financial risk, pressuring near-term sentiment as the market reassesses the sustainability of AI’s ‘circular financing’ model.

3. $Alibaba(BABA.US)

Alibaba Cloud said its Zhenwu M890 supernode achieved Day 0 adaptation for Kimi K3, becoming the first domestic compute cluster in China to stably run a near-3 trillion parameter model. The two sides will deepen compute collaboration, with Alibaba Cloud’s Bailian and Qwen platforms launching Kimi K3 API services. Backed by T-Head’s in-house chips and a high-speed interconnect, the deployment markedly lowers the threshold for ultra-large MoE models, validating domestic compute’s ability to host top-tier open-source LLMs and benefiting commercialization across China’s AI compute value chain.

4. $LAOPU GOLD(06181.HK)

Laopu Gold issued a positive profit alert, guiding H1 adj. net profit up 83%–85% YoY, yet the stock fell over 20% intraday after the notice. Results were front-loaded, with Q2 revenue and net profit down sharply QoQ; combined with the ongoing pullback in gold prices, investors worry its high-premium ‘fixed-price’ model is seeing weaker demand and that its RMB 10bn-level gold inventory faces impairment risk. The upbeat pre-announcement instead became a profit-taking window, underscoring weak risk appetite in HK consumer names.

5. $BYD COMPANY(01211.HK)

BYD’s in-house humanoid robot will debut in Aug, first landing at the Zhengzhou Di Space experience center and initially targeting store guide and model demonstration scenarios. Leveraging its auto supply chain to self-develop key parts such as motors and reducers, BYD formally enters the embodied AI track. Unlike peers prioritizing factory use cases, BYD is starting with commercial service scenarios, charting a differentiated go-to-market path and expanding long-term optionality.

6) KO is scheduled to report tonight. The earnings release is expected this evening.

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A-share: Tobacco; Water & Soft Drinks; Transaction & Payment Services.

HK: Food Retailers; Property & Casualty Insurance; Highways–Trucking.

US: Marine Ports–Operators; Application Software; Consumer Electronics.

🐬 Watch Tomorrow

1) Bloom Energy, SK hynix, and New Oriental to report earnings.

Risk disclosure and statement: Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure