AetherCore

My guess is MU closes around $1,145 on the first trading day after earnings.

HBM and server DRAM demand still look really strong, especially with AI demand staying hot. If Micron beats expectations and gives solid guidance, I can see the stock moving around 7% higher.

That said, expectations are already pretty high and MU has had a huge run, so I wouldn’t go too aggressive with a 10%+ call. I’ll stick with $1,145.

$Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US)

Context:

Semiconductors are one of the areas I’m watching most closely as the market approaches another important week.

QQQ is near its previous all time high, while Micron earnings and major economic data could quickly influence sentiment toward technology and semiconductor stocks.

I also noticed institutional call activity in SOXL, which gives me another signal to monitor together with the actual price action.

My trade:

I’m continuing to hold my SOXL shares. My decision is not based on a single catalyst. I want to maintain exposure to semiconductor momentum while watching how the sector responds to Micron earnings and the upcoming economic data.

Since SOXL provides leveraged daily exposure to semiconductor stocks, I’m being more selective about adding rather than increasing my position simply because the market is strong.

Takeaway:

Holding SOXL has reminded me that being bullish does not mean I need to keep adding. With a leveraged ETF, patience, position sizing, and risk management matter just as much as getting the direction right.

$Dell Tech(DELL.US)

Context: Dell is one of those companies I actually come across in everyday life, which made me pay more attention to it as an investment. Beyond the consumer side, I’m also interested in its role in the growing AI infrastructure market.

My Trade: I am holding Dell because I like the idea of getting exposure to AI infrastructure through a company I already know and see in everyday life. For me, it’s interesting to see how a familiar hardware brand is becoming part of a much bigger AI story.

Takeaway: Sometimes the companies we see in everyday life can lead to interesting investment ideas. AI isn’t only about chips. The infrastructure behind it matters too.

$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Context:

Today’s Fed decision caught my attention. Rates rose 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, and the more hawkish tone added pressure to growth and AI sentiment.

For AVGO, I understand the uncertainty. Higher rates can pressure valuations, while investors are also questioning whether AI infrastructure spending can continue.

What keeps me from reacting too quickly is that Broadcom’s fundamentals remain strong. Its latest AI semiconductor revenue grew 221% YoY, so I see a clear difference between changing sentiment and a changing business.

My Trade:

I’m still holding AVGO. Macro conditions matter, but I don’t want one Fed decision to change a view built over a much longer time frame.

Instead, I’m watching what matters to the thesis: AI demand, customer spending, and whether Broadcom can keep turning that demand into sustainable growth.

Takeaway:

Today reminded me that having a long-term view doesn’t mean ignoring Fed or market risk. It means knowing what should actually make me rethink the thesis.

For now, I’m trying to react less and observe more.

$Oracle(ORCL.US)

Context:

I started a position in ORCL yesterday after watching the recent pullback.

What caught my attention is the contrast between the stock price and the business momentum. Oracle just reported 30% revenue growth, while its cloud infrastructure business grew 121%. At the same time, the market is clearly still uncomfortable with how much capital is being committed to AI infrastructure and what that means for cash flow.

My Trade:

I decided to start with a position rather than trying to guess where the exact bottom is. For me, this trade is less about catching a quick rebound and more about watching whether Oracle can actually turn its huge AI and cloud commitments into sustainable growth.

Takeaway:

Strong growth numbers alone don’t remove execution risk. Sometimes the more interesting setups are when the business looks strong but the market is still questioning the cost of getting there.

$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Context: I like Broadcom because it sits right at the heart of AI infrastructure. While most people focus on GPUs, companies like Google and Meta work with Broadcom on custom AI chips and high-speed networking. Its software business also brings in steady cash flow, giving the company a strong foundation beyond AI.

My trade: My average cost is $355.172, and with AVGO around 362, I’m sitting on a small gain. I’m holding my shares today and not adding more. With strong demand for custom AI chips, networking, and solid software cash flow, I’m comfortable letting the position run while keeping my risk under control.

Takeaway: Broadcom has strong exposure to AI through both custom chips and networking. In your semiconductor portfolio, do you prefer GPU companies or custom ASIC players like Broadcom?

What I'm watching most is whether Apple can finally give people a real reason to upgrade again.

The foldable iPhone is what excites me most. As an iPhone user, I think a lot of us are at the point where our current phones are simply “good enough.” So for me, the real test is whether this new lineup can bring back that feeling of actually wanting to upgrade.

Apple already has a massive user base, so even a small shift in upgrade demand could make a big difference. I'm bullish, but I want to see if the excitement actually turns into sales.

$Arm(ARM.US)

Context: What keeps me interested in Arm isn’t the AI hype. It’s how deeply the architecture is already embedded across the industry. Switching away is possible, but after decades of building around it, it’s neither easy nor cheap. That stickiness matters more to me than the hype.

My trade: I bought higher than I should have, so I’m still in the red. But my entry price doesn’t change what the business is worth from here. The thesis hasn’t changed for me, so I’m holding. I’m not adding just because it’s down either.

Takeaway: The market doesn’t care where you bought. What matters is whether the reason you bought still holds. For me, ARM still does.

$Vertiv(VRT.US)

Context: I still like VRT despite the recent pullback. The business is growing well, margins are improving, and AI data centers continue to need more power and cooling. Vertiv is still one of the companies I like most in this space.

My Trade: My average cost is $317.275, so I’m still underwater. When I first bought, I didn’t know the stock would pull back this much, so I started with a smaller position just to get some exposure. I’m keeping that position and watching the business rather than trying to guess the bottom.

Takeaway: I still believe in the long term story, but the valuation matters. For now, I’m more focused on whether earnings, margins and cash flow keep improving before deciding if I want to add more.

$Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US)

Context: I’m currently holding SOXL, but I’m more cautious heading into September. Historically, September has often been a weaker month for stocks. It doesn’t happen every year, but it’s worth keeping in mind.

My trade: I’m not expecting a rebound here. With midterm election uncertainty and SOXL’s 3x leverage, I’m focusing more on risk and considering whether to reduce or exit my position.

Takeaway: September does not always mean the market will fall, and election years do not guarantee a specific outcome. But both are risk factors I think are worth keeping in mind.

At this point, I’m more focused on protecting capital than trying to predict a rebound.

$Broadcom(AVGO.US)

My AVGO Earnings Take

⬆️ Voted Up 3% to 8%

Broadcom enters Q3 with high expectations. Revenue guidance is around $29.4B, while AI semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $16B, up 200%+ YoY.

I’m bullish because Broadcom benefits from both custom AI chips (ASICs) and AI networking. It doesn’t need to beat Nvidia as both companies play different roles in the same AI infrastructure boom.

The biggest risk is expectations. A simple earnings beat may not be enough. Forward guidance will decide the reaction. If Broadcom beats expectations and raises its AI outlook, I see room for a solid move higher.

$Comfort Systems USA(FIX.US)

Context: I own Comfort Systems for its leverage to the multiyear buildout of AI and data center infrastructure. These facilities require increasingly complex mechanical, electrical, and cooling systems, while FIX’s modular capabilities allow it to execute large projects more efficiently and at scale.

The thesis is now showing up clearly in the fundamentals: backlog continues to reach new highs, technology exposure is expanding, margins are benefiting from strong execution and favorable project mix, and earnings expectations continue to move higher.

My trade: I’m letting my profitable shares run. I’m not trying to trade short-term price action while the underlying earnings cycle is still strengthening. As long as backlog growth, margins, and earnings revisions remain constructive, I see no fundamental reason to reduce a winning position.

Takeaway: I like owning companies positioned at key industry bottlenecks. As long as FIX’s specialized capabilities keep translating into backlog, margin, and earnings growth, I’m happy to let the winner run.

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

​Context: I established my TSM position early at a fairly low cost basis, driven by high conviction in their unmatched leadership in advanced semiconductor manufacturing and long-term AI infrastructure growth.

​My trade: I am currently holding my existing position without adding shares. Because my entry price provides a solid safety margin, I prefer to let profits run rather than average up my cost base during high-valuation periods.

​Takeaway: Next time, I will trust my fundamental research earlier to build a larger initial position, channeling Buffett's "wide moat" philosophy and Lynch's rule to never "cut the flowers to water the weeds" by selling a long-term winner too soon.

$Carpenter Tech(CRS.US)

Context: My reason for holding Carpenter is really straightforward: they make the special high strength metal that plane makers desperately need to build engines and airframes. Right now, commercial airlines have huge order backlogs lined up for years, but the factories that can make this metal are super limited, so Carpenter can pretty much charge top dollar for their products.

My trade: I am just holding my position today and letting it sit. I definitely do not put all my eggs in one basket or bet everything on this single stock. Instead, I spread my money across different asset types, so I can enjoy the upside of the aerospace boom while keeping my overall risk totally safe.

Takeaway: Buying companies that sell hard to find materials is a great way to stay safe in any market. Do you think this airplane metal shortage will keep prices strong over the next few years?

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

I voted for the -2% to +2% range for NVDA on August 27.

Expectations are already extremely high going into this earnings report, so even another strong beat may not automatically lead to a big move higher. At the same time, AI and data-center demand remain strong enough to provide support if the results are solid.

I think the initial reaction could be volatile, but buyers and profit-taking may eventually balance each other out. That’s why my base case is for NVDA to finish the day roughly flat, within -2% to +2%.

My NVDA closing price prediction for August 27 is $225.80. I expect strong AI demand and solid data-center growth to support the stock after earnings, while high expectations may limit the upside.

$Corning(GLW.US)

Context: When I invest in optical infrastructure leaders like Corning, I deliberately adopt a patient mindset to allow complex business transformations to mature. Connecting modern GPU compute clusters requires massive amounts of high density optical fiber, and I am committed to holding through low volatility basing periods while this secular connectivity demand compounds.

My trade: I am maintaining my core long position without making any adjustments today. My average cost basis is established at 157.5, and with strict asset allocation and risk budgeting already in place, I feel completely comfortable giving this multiyear optical expansion theme the necessary time to compound.

Takeaway: Enduring slow consolidation phases in mission critical hardware suppliers is the price of admission for long term alpha.

$Vertiv(VRT.US)

Context: I remain bullish on VRT’s long-term thesis. As AI computing becomes more power-dense, power and cooling become increasingly critical, putting VRT at the center of a durable infrastructure need. Its continued expansion in liquid cooling also strengthens my confidence in its competitive position.

My trade: I’m holding my current position and doing nothing today. After such a strong run, I’d rather let the stock consolidate than chase it. I’ll consider adding only when the consolidation matures and I see a convincing high-volume green candle.

Takeaway: As a value investor, I like VRT not simply because of the AI hype, but because whoever wins the AI race will still need power, cooling, and data center infrastructure. To me, VRT is a classic “selling shovels in a gold rush” business.

$KLA(KLAC.US)

Context: KLA is one of the semiconductor equipment holdings in my portfolio. My average cost is $261.91, and I am still holding my position. KLAC currently represents 9.17% of my portfolio.

My trade: I am continuing to hold KLAC. I’m monitoring semiconductor demand, AI-related investment, advanced packaging, and KLA’s process control and inspection business.

Takeaway: KLAC remains an important position in my portfolio, so I’ll continue to follow the company’s fundamentals and my portfolio allocation over time.

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

The market keeps focusing on short term headlines, but I see TSMC quietly strengthening its global manufacturing moat through its latest sensor JV with Sony in Japan.

What matters to me is TSMC’s unmatched process execution and advanced packaging capabilities. These are difficult for competitors to replicate. By securing key bottlenecks in AI computing and image sensors, TSMC continues to strengthen its position across the tech ecosystem.

I’d rather own great compounders than trade short term noise. When a company controls critical technology, I’m happy to let the compounding work in the background.

@Captain's Treasure