First Fellow

First Fellow

What if you treated $Apple(AAPL.US) like a subscription you never cancel?

Start: $10,000

Then: $500/month, automatic

Year 15 checkpoint

• Total deposited: $100K

• Account value: ~$384K

• Compound's share: ~$284K

Stick with it 25 years and that same $500/month turns $160K of deposits into about $1.67M.

You are not "investing in a phone company." You are renting time to compound interest. The earlier the recurring buy starts, the less your own money has to do.

Figure Robotics is my favorite Robotics company. Apptronik and Dyna are the other interesting ones.

The problem: Figure, Apptronik, Dyna are all private. $39B+ marks.

$Robostrategy(BOT.US) is a closed end fund on Nasdaq that holds pre IPO robotics names in one ticker.

Top holdings:

• Figure AI — 25.48%

• Dyna Robotics — 25.48%

• Apptronik — 25.48%

• Dexmate — 6.84%

• Path Robotics — 4.10%

It is actually a concentrated humanoid bet.

What I like:

→ First clean public access to names that usually stay VC only

→ NAV updated to $10.51 (June 30)

→ Labor + AI are entering the warehouse

What made me pause:

→ Closed end fund. Price can trade far above NAV

→ Private marks, not daily liquid holdings

→ 2.5% management fee on top of concentration risk - This is high for me.

If robotics disappoint, this wrapper gets hit hard. I will read more on it, but decided not to buy it yet. Too much premium and fee to my taste.

We had a discussion in the group. 30x P/S is not normal. We just stopped acting like it is.

For context:

• S&P 500: ~3.5x sales

• Mature SaaS: 5 to 15x

• $NVIDIA(NVDA.US): ~20x

• $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US): ~56x

• $IonQ(IONQ.US): ~77x

• $SpaceX(SPCX.US): ~110x

At 30x sales, the market is paying $30 for every $1 of revenue. Not profit. Revenue.

What history says?: It usually does not stay extraordinary forever. Markets have a funny way of humbling anyone who calls 70x or 100x "the new normal."

On X, its turning normal to pump stocks that are stupidly valued stocks, but think twice before acting on them.

• Nasdaq composite rallies, retaking a key level as AI chip stocks surge.

• $Arm(ARM.US), $Micron Tech(MU.US), and $Sandisk(SNDK.US) are among the top-performing AI chip stocks.

• $Datadog(DDOG.US) stock rises as it is seen as essential for monitoring AI infrastructure.

• Semiconductor stocks, including Sandisk and Micron, experience broad gains.

• SpaceX's new AI model helps it compete with Google and OpenAI. $SpaceX(SPCX.US)

• Bitcoin price rises as MARA Holdings announces a new Texas data center. $Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF(BTC.US)

Agree or not, $Penguin Solutions(PENG.US) lifted the spirits of all memory names. $Micron Tech(MU.US) investing here is not a new news market is unaware of. We got a fellow Memory sector guy giving solid guidance gave much needed momentum.

The most boring portfolio on earth might be the smartest.

$10K into $VOO today. $500 every month after that. Never touch it.

Fast forward 15 years:

→ $100K of your cash went in

→ Compound quietly manufactured ~$252K

Run it 25 years and the same habit turns $160K of contributions into roughly $784K.

- No genius stock pick.

- No chart watching.

- Just a recurring buy into the entire US economy.

Wealth from discipline, not drama.

$eBay(EBAY.US) is one of my favorite ideas at moment. A perfect setup that's constructing a nice beautiful English Tea cup. Does it remind you of $Okta(OKTA.US) & $IBM(IBM.US)? It does to me.

Defense names started pounding the table again. We saw the rotation came back to $ITA in the last couple of weeks. We just got a handle after the cup formation.

- $ITA record high, +35% past year

- $Lockheed Martin(LMT.US) $35.3B THAAD deal

- $RTX(RTX.US) Tomahawk + air missile contracts

- $Howmet Aerospace(HWM.US) $Northrop Grumman(NOC.US) all pushing the ETF

FY27 Pentagon budget: $1.5T (+44%). Defense tech VC: $14.6B in 5 months

My favorite trades in the sector,

- Sector ETF: $ITA

- Long game: $Lockheed Martin(LMT.US) $RTX(RTX.US) $Northrop Grumman(NOC.US)

- Growth: $Howmet Aerospace(HWM.US) $Heico(HEI.US) & $Kratos Defense & Security(KTOS.US)

Healthcare is the leader at moment. Not one name. I see a cluster:

- M&A rocket: $Crinetics Pharmaceuticals(CRNX.US) +116% in July on $Vertex Pharma(VRTX.US) $10B buyout at $85

- Mega cap momentum: $Eli Lilly(LLY.US) 52 week high, revenue +47%

- YTD monsters: $Moderna(MRNA.US) +170%, $Gilead Sciences(GILD.US) +5% today

- Defensive flows: $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.US) $Unitedhealth(UNH.US) $Welltower Op(WELL.US) all at highs

Meanwhile $MAGS is bleeds=ing and $XLK is red. The pattern is, institutions are rotating into pharma and biotech.

Watch the cluster: #UNH $Eli Lilly(LLY.US) $Vertex Pharma(VRTX.US) $Crinetics Pharmaceuticals(CRNX.US) $Moderna(MRNA.US) $Gilead Sciences(GILD.US) $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ.US) $TG Therap(TGTX.US) $Revolution Medicines(RVMD.US)

Always keep an eye on the sector rotation.

"Dollar Cost Average" into index funds like $VOO & $SCHD and NEVER SELL.

"Skip the latte and you'll be rich" is silly advice.

$5/day = $1,825/year.

One 5% raise on a $75K salary = $3,750/year.

Same effort. Double the result. You keep the coffee.

Wealth is not built by cutting $5. It is built by moving big levers:

- Negotiate salary once

- House below your means

- Capture the full 401k match

- Automate 15% to yourself before you spend a dollar

- Pay yourself first. Then live on what's left.

The latte was never the problem. Spending every raise while arguing about coffee was.

Fix the big levers. Enjoy the latte.

$Kulicke and Soffa(KLIC.US) No position, but stupidity has no limits. What has changed on the bottle necks since Samsungs ER? Anyways, no need to stress I think this is a great R/R trade here. First 50ma test in a while.

$Dave(DAVE.US) We all deserve yet another entry. 400 offered a decent resistance, now either a 9 or 21ema would be amazing. This is a low float name, so I won't be surprised if we get a sharp pull back.

$IBM(IBM.US) gave us a fantastic swing trade. We spotted it in time, we found the best options using our homegrown tool, we nailed the trade. Moving on to new idea we just opened.

$IWM is the cleanest way to play the Mag 7 rotation.

H1 2026:

$IWM +23%

Mag 7: 0%

Russell 2000 Q2 beat rate: 68%

Forward P/E: ~18x vs SPY ~22x

Why it works?

70% domestic revenue

Earnings growth forecast: 48% vs S&P 500 at 24%

The levels (options + price):

$300 = resistance (call wall, 78K OI)

$292-$294 = current demand zone

What is my trade?

- Above $300 on volume will give us breakout.

- $292 to $300 is range trade, buy dips, sell rips

- Below $288 means, thesis break, cut or hedge.

$SPY looks good, no problem. But my concern is this.

7 stocks still = 34% of the S&P 500. Higher concentration than the 2000 tech peak (~24%).

I got June stats from my agent:

$2.3T erased from Mag 7

MAGS ETF: $700M outflows, worst month since launch

6 of 7 names in double digit drawdowns

YTD split:

S&P 493: +13.7%

Mag 7 basket: -6.6%

The other 493 stocks carried 96% of index returns.

Where money rotated:

LEADING: Healthcare (XLV), Financials (XLF), Industrials (XLI)

LAGGING: Technology (XLK), Energy (XLE)

S&P 493 earnings growing ~20% in Q2.

Mag 7 growth slowing.

This is why I keep emphasizing on $RSP gives a better picture than $SPY. Equal weights are a better read IMHO.

$BRK.B is definitely a top weekly breakout idea. I have said it a million times, and will continue saying it. Berkshire should be treated like an ETF. They are doing all the work for you to find best FCF companies so you dont need to talk to GPTs about intrinsic value. Idc if they pay dividends or not, they beat $SPY.

Someone reminded me, I didn't post top idea of the week. Last week's idea was $NVAN, the one before was $Billiontoone(BLLN.US). Both did exceptional.

I think $IBM(IBM.US) should have been our top idea of the week but since it gapped up pretty good already, I will post a new one by EOD.

Daily routine.

- Wake up

- Kiss your girl Good morning

- Take the dog for a walk

- Check $First Solar(FSLR.US) chart

- Go on with your day

- Call it a day

$GE Vernova(GEV.US) is a market leader. I posted yesterday morning on the top 10 energy companies that powers Data Centers and this one tops unsurprisingly. Fluctuations, pullbacks, bear markets, whatever comes, not touching this position.

• Tech futures are rising; key stocks to watch include Sandisk, Apple, SpaceX, and Robinhood.

• The U.S. innovation sector remains strong, but China is emerging as a competitor.

• Everus Construction is nearing a new buy point in the AI sector. $Everus Construction(ECG.US)

• Analysts favor seven stocks for earnings growth, with Comfort Systems leading. $Comfort Systems USA(FIX.US)

• Robinhood shares regained a significant price level after new tool announcements. $Robinhood(HOOD.US)

• Delta stock is gaining traction amidst falling oil prices and market volatility. $Delta Air Lines(DAL.US)

Bitcoin hit 3 on-chain conditions that showed up near every past bear market low since 2015.

This is not a "buy now" call of course. It marks the zone where bottoms usually form.

The checklist:

1. Underwater supply > profitable supply

2. Price at 200 week MA ($61.3K)

3. Long term holders accumulating again

All 3 are live this week.

After prior crossovers:

2015: ~12 months in zone

2019/2022: ~6 months

Mar 2020: ~1 month

Lows often came within weeks, but usually after one final 15 to 26% drop first. This event may not have happened yet.

Levels to watch:

200W MA: $61.3K

Realized price: ~$54K

Years horizon: accumulation zone.

Weeks horizon: wait for the final leg.

Map. Not a buy button.

Idea #6: Last but not least $Federal Signal(FSS.US)

Yet another weekly ressitance breakout. I think we should easily see $150 on this name soon.

That's all the ideas for now, posted 7 so far that are exceptional.

Idea #5: $Sezzle(SEZL.US)

When we see a monthly base and ATH test, I think we should expect some pullback like what we saw with $First Solar(FSLR.US). With that said, BNPL picked up lots of momentum due to macro environment. A daily close above 190 can take it to 225-230 in no time.

Idea #3: $Heico(HEI.US)

This is not your average AI company which can go down sooner or later, we're talking about Aerospace and Defense giant that's one of the few names showing strength in the sector. We finally have a weekly cup base.

PT: 400