1210 | Dolphin Research Focus

🐬 Macro/Industry

1. Market chatter suggests a RMB 400 bn mortgage interest subsidy program is set, with a standard 1% subsidy and up to 2% for risk regions and distressed developers, though no official document has been released yet.

If implemented, it would directly lower borrowers' mortgage costs, with the higher subsidy in stressed areas helping ease local housing pressure and reduce developers' funding risks. Coupled with frequent headlines on Vanke's debt restructuring and support measures, China property stocks spiked in the afternoon, with Vanke leading gains.

2. The Fed holds its last FOMC of the year on Dec 10–11, with the rate decision and statement due at 3:00 a.m. on Dec 11 Beijing time, followed by Powell's press conference. Consensus expects a 25bps cut, taking the fed funds target range to 3.50%–3.75%, potentially delivered as a hawkish cut. The meeting also faces issues such as data gaps and divisions within the committee.

3. Per the NBS, China's Nov 2025 CPI rose 0.7% YoY vs. +0.2% prior, the highest since Mar 2024, while core CPI rose 1.2% YoY, staying above 1% for a third straight month. Food prices turning up was the main driver. The wider YoY CPI gain points to a continued recovery in consumption, and the stabilization in core CPI suggests stronger domestic demand.

Fresh vegetable and other food prices rebounded on seasonal weather effects. However, deeper declines in energy prices and lower prices for big-ticket items such as autos indicate continued structural divergence in consumption.

🐬 Single Stocks

1.$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

TSMC reported Nov revenue of NT$343.614 bn (+24.5% YoY), a record high for the month, driven by a surge in advanced packaging orders for AI and HPC, with CoWoS capacity remaining tight. Revenue fell 6.5% MoM due to a high Oct base and short-term delivery timing. Jan–Nov revenue reached NT$3.47 tn (+32.8% YoY).

2.$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

The EU on Dec 9 local time formally opened an antitrust probe into Google, focusing on whether it abused market dominance by using online content such as news and video to train AI models without authorization, harming creators and limiting competition. If found in violation, Google could face a fine of up to 10% of global revenue.

3.$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

Palantir won a large U.S. Navy contract to provide AI tech to accelerate submarine manufacturing. The stock jumped more than 5% in after-hours trading before paring gains. Previously, Palantir secured multiple AI deals with the U.S. military, including tech support for the DoD's Maven program.

4.$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Microsoft announced a new $23 bn AI investment plan, including $17.5 bn to build AI infrastructure in India across data centers, compute networks, and talent development, with the remainder for AI R&D in other regions. The push reflects India's demographic advantages and cost-efficient compute, while aiming to secure first-mover advantage in South Asia's AI market. It could make India a key node in the global AI compute network, though data security and talent pipeline constraints remain risks.

🐬 Top Gainers by Sector

A-shares: Property services, food retailers, agricultural machinery. These were among the day's top-performing groups.

HK: Agricultural machinery, silver, consumer goods retailers. These sectors outperformed.

US: Silver, gold, diversified financial services. All ranked among the leaders.

🐬 Watch Tomorrow

1. Fed rate decision (upper bound). US trade balance and wholesale sales MoM.

Risk disclosure and statement: Dolphin Research Disclaimer and General Disclosure