Closed trades from the last three weeks. 82% win rate. I am not posting this so you copy the P&L. The column that matters is the note.
A lot of my trades, 21ema test and Avwap breakout. That is what I call the edge, a repeatable pattern. The green is just the result.#Trading #Investing
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BREAKING: We just uncovered new STOCK Act violations involving the person overseeing congressional ethics.
The same committee responsible for enforcing the STOCK Act.Representative Michael Guest disclosed stock trades months after the legal deadline, with trades dating back to last year.Here’s where it gets wild:Guest is the Chairman of the House Ethics Committee.In other words, the lawmaker leading the committee tasked with policing congressional stock trading appears to have violated the disclosure rules himself.You cannot make this up.Congress is supposed to police Congress.Who polices the police? - F
$Airbnb(ABNB.US)
Airbnb $Airbnb(ABNB.US) has delivered a quarter that materially strengthens the bull case. The Business Times highlighted robust travel demand and the 2026 World Cup catalyst; Q2 revenue jumped 17% YoY to US$3.61bn, EPS rose 33% to US$1.37, while nights/seats booked increased 10% to 148.3m. Management lifted FY2026 revenue growth to mid-teens and expects adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 35.5%.
Fundamentally, AI-driven conversion and customer-service efficiencies, alongside hotel supply growing nearly 3x faster than home listings, broaden Airbnb’s TAM. Wedbush upgraded to Outperform with a US$200 target, while Benchmark raised its target to US$180.
Valuation remains the caveat: ABNB previously traded around 28–30x forward earnings, above traditional travel peers. After the earnings surge toward US$176, the margin of safety has narrowed.
Technically, the breakout above the US$147.25 base is bullish, but the ~16% one-day surge risks near-term overextension. Entry: wait for a pullback toward US$160–165 rather than chase. Options: cash-secured puts around US$155–160 offer a better risk/reward; bullish investors could consider a US$165/190 call spread to cap premium risk.
View: Bullish fundamentally, tactically cautious.
Not financial advice.
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - N
Good news for local banks delivered clean sweep and strong earnings send Straits Times to fresh high.
SpaceX rallied through a $100B share unlock. Unsure whether the retail conviction or steady local fundamentals trend to trust more.
Glad for Atlassian, Airbnb and Datadog revenues rose.
Hope it can boost the global economy.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — STI Hits Fresh Highs as SpaceX Shrugs Off $100B Share UnlockSingapore's banks delivered a clean sweep this week: DBS, SGX and Venture Corp all beat, then OCBC and UOB followed with strong earnings of their own, sending $FTSE Straits Times Index(STI.SG) to fres...
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ABNB: Red-Hot World Cup Ignites Travel & Hospitality
Global alt-stay leader $Airbnb(ABNB.US) released FY26 Q2 results early on Aug 7. Helped by the World Cup, the print was solid, with growth in gross booking value and nights beating estimates.
Management also issued upbeat guidance for next quarter, pointing to sustained strength in travel and lodging in the mid term. 1) Nights growth accelerated, underscoring the recovery in travel demand.Focusing on the key operating metric, gross booking value (GBV) grew 16% in nominal terms this quarter, which appears to be a deceleration. Ex-FX growth was 15%...+7
AirbnbFinancial Analysis - D
ABNB 2Q26 First Take: as widely expected, boosted by the World Cup backdrop, Airbnb delivered a solid print with faster bookings growth and stronger profitability, both beating estimates. Guidance for the quarter when the World Cup kicks off also points to faster revenue growth than expected, with nights likely to re-accelerate. In short, both the reported quarter and the next-quarter outlook look strong.
In detail. We highlight the following.
1) Core ops: GBV rose 16% YoY. It may look slower QoQ, but ex-FX growth was 15%, implying a 200bps QoQ acceleration. The main driver was nights growth picking up from ~9% last quarter to nearly 11% this quarter, while nominal ADR growth eased from 9% to 5% as FX tailwinds faded, yet ADRs were still broadly higher ex-FX globally.
2) On the back of strong bookings, revenue and GP growth both modestly beat, though by a small margin. GPM was ~0.2ppt above expectations, less eye-catching than the operating metrics.
Ex-FX, however, revenue grew only 13% this quarter, 200bps slower than last quarter, implying a slight decline in the underlying take rate ex-FX. The drivers warrant attention.
3) Alongside robust growth, opex came in slightly above expectations at $2.22bn, up 14% YoY vs. the Street at $2.21bn. Marketing spend was the swing factor, still up 27%, outpacing both GBV and revenue growth. As a result, GAAP OP slightly missed, though adj. EBITDA met the company’s focus metric.
4) Guidance: management sees next-quarter revenue growth of 15%–17%, well ahead of the Street at 12%. That said, the outlook embeds roughly a 3ppt FX tailwind, so the underlying beat is less dramatic.
More notably, management expects next-quarter GBV growth around 15% and nights growth above 10%, both raised vs. prior and well ahead of the Street (GBV ~10%, nights ~8%). World Cup tailwinds should keep travel demand elevated through Q3. $Airbnb(ABNB.US)
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ABNB (Trans): FY guide raised on both top- and bottom-line; Q3 margin slightly down
Q2 revenue rose 17% YoY to $3.6bn, topping the high end of guidance. Full-year revenue growth guidance was raised from low-to-mid-teens to at least mid-teens, and the Adj. EBITDA margin outlook from 35% to at least 35.5%.
However, Q3 margin will edge down YoY given a faster investment cadence. For the year, the take rate is guided to be only flat vs. 2025. Management will prioritize an AI-native overhaul and the hotels biz in the next phase.AirbnbConference Minutes - G
$Airbnb(ABNB.US) +9.6% AH after posting a 2Q rev and earnings beat and guiding to stronger than expected 3Q revs. 2Q beat was fueled by strong demand by FIFA World Cup in the Americas.
2Q:- Revenue: $3.61B +17% Y/Y vs. $3.58B expected- Gross booking value $27.2B vs $26.5B est- Nights/Experiences 148.3M vs 145.8M expected- Adj EBiTDA $1,261M vs $1,231M- Earnings per share: $1.37 vs. $1.25 expected3Q Guide: - Revenue between $4.69B and $4.77B (+15-17%) vs analyst consensus of $4.61B (+12% est). - GBV y/y growth mid-teens (vs +11% est)- Adj EBITDA will increase y/y (vs +13% est)FY’26- FY’2026 rev growth mid-teens vs prior forecast of low-to-mid teens (+14% exp). - D
SpaceX faces a $100bn+ lockup expiry; DeepSeek plans a sharp hike to API pricing | Daily News Recap
0807 ｜ Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) Overnight, gold rallied sharply. Goldman Sachs notes Chinese capital is returning, and Trump signaled talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. With marginal easing in geopolitical tensions and cooler Fed tightening expectations, falling US real yields lifted gold.
In Q2, global central bank gold purchases beat expectations. The Bank of Korea resumed buying after 13 years, providing additional support.Multiple catalysts have pushed gold higher in the near term. However, talks on the strait remain at a preliminary stage and uncertainties persist. The rally's extent will need confirmation from geopolitical developments and US inflation and labor data...Today’s Key News Recap - D
Tech has made a remarkable turnaround since last week and seems to be doing rather well. There are those who still are wary and rightly so. However I believe tech is just starting its engines.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — DBS Crosses S$6B as SpaceX Bets It All on Nvidia$DBS(D05.SG) just crossed a milestone: total income above S$6B for the first time, on record quarterly profit. Meanwhile $SpaceX(SPCX.US) delivered its first earnings report as a public company, beat ...
