ASML251017C1000000.US

its hard to say that semis have topped or that capex beneficiaries have topped

Source: amit

TSMC 26Q2 First Take: with the AI market in need of a confidence boost, this print is unlikely to satisfy. As the company discloses monthly ops data, revenue came in at $40.2bn, broadly in line with buy-side expectations (~$40bn).

Versus the top line, investors focused on gross margin. GPM was 67.7%, at the top end of guidance but slightly below raised buy-side expectations (some aggressive marks were 69%+).

Margins are still on an upward trend, driven by higher utilization and pricing. N5 and below have been running at >100% utilization, while rush orders lifted ASPs, with some orders carrying >50% premiums.

With fab loading tight, the company has more incentive to lift capex. Management raised capex to $60-64bn (from the higher end of $52-56bn), well above the Street at $58bn. This implies H2 capex of $33.2-37.2bn (+56%-75% YoY), aligning with ASML’s back-half-weighted revenue outlook.

On the outlook, next-quarter revenue is guided to $44.6-45.8bn, with GPM at 65%-67%. Since TSMC provided full-year growth guidance, the importance of next-quarter guidance is reduced. Management lifted the FY revenue growth target to 40% (vs. at least 30% prior), slightly above mainstream expectations (35%+).

Overall, the market had hoped for a more dazzling report to inject confidence into the AI supply chain, but the print and outlook did not deliver a big beat. Among the metrics, only capex clearly topped expectations, a relative positive for upstream equipment names such as ASML. For more, stay tuned for Dolphin Research’s follow-up take and transcript highlights. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

lost in the memory dump: $ASML(ASML.US) crushed Q2, sales up 21% to 9.3 billion euros, and raised its 2026 guidance, stock up 7%. ASML is the monopoly on the machines that make every advanced chip, so when it raises guidance, it's saying AI capex is still accelerating, not slowing. that's the bullish counterpoint to the memory selloff. the buildout is funded. i'm long the equipment side as the cleanest capex proxy.

BofA: ASML $ASML(ASML.US)

$ASML(ASML.US) is leading the charge

released an extremely strong Q2 earnings report

Cash cow company

Next up is $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) 🤔

ASML First Take: A solid print, with revenue and GPM beating estimates. Growth re-accelerated, driven by pull-ins from TSMC and Korean memory customers.

Guidance was the standout. Management guides next-quarter revenue at €11–12bn, well above the Street at €10.3bn.

Management also raised the 2026 full-year outlook to €43–45bn (from €36–40bn). That implies +31–37% YoY.

Based on the guide, Q4 revenue could climb further to about €14–15bn. That suggests core wafer fabs will begin large-scale pull-ins in 2H.

On orders, the company stopped disclosing detailed bookings starting last quarter. Bookings are a key leading indicator; watch for any color from management on the call (see Dolphin Research Trans to follow).

Despite the broad AI pullback, ASML’s drawdown has been relatively modest (~15%). Downstream wafer fabs are set to lift capex, and MU has again raised its capex outlook.

Overall, management’s sharply higher operational guide underpins 30%+ growth for the year and helps steady market sentiment. For more on orders and tech progress, please follow Dolphin Research’s upcoming detailed take and management call highlights。$ASML(ASML.US)

Cooling CPI boosted sentiment, but the real story was the shift in sector leadership and capital flows.

IBM's selloff reinforces that AI spending is shifting toward chips, memory, and infrastructure rather than software.

Leadership from SK Hynix, Nvidia and semis suggests AI capex remains strong despite near-term pressure on software.

ASML and TSMC earnings are the next key catalysts to confirm whether this AI infrastructure trade still has momentum

$Direxion Semicon Bull 3X(SOXL.US)

Chip stocks face a key week with ASML and TSMC earnings ahead, while recent volatility reflects concerns over valuations, export controls, and delivery timelines.

AI-driven demand remains strong. I’m still holding SOXL, but I’m avoiding adding aggressively or chasing short-term moves until the volatility settles.

@Captain's Treasure

HSBC: WFE Forecasts

Nanya Technology plans to spend NT$200 billion (US$6.2 billion) on 2027 capex, up from this year’s NT$50B+, media report. Nanya is aiming for 30,000 wafers per month (wpm) capacity by 2028 at its new fab, which will ultimately reach 45Kwpm. Around NT$100B has already been spent on the total NT$480B fab project. Nanya is the biggest Taiwan DRAM maker. $Applied Materials(AMAT.US) $ASML(ASML.US) $Lam Research(LRCX.US) $KLA(KLAC.US)

Source: Dan Nystedt

📊 Watchlist for tomorrow (Not Financial Advice)

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$ASML(ASML.US)#Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards

My ASML holding currently has a 4.44% unrealized loss, with a cost basis of $1800 and the current price at $1717.46. I bought ASML for its exclusive EUV lithography monopoly, betting on long-term AI chip and wafer fab expansion demand. The recent decline comes from market worries about slower semiconductor capital expenditure and export policy risks, triggering a sector-wide pullback in chip equipment stocks.

This trade teaches me a key lesson: even companies with unrivaled technical barriers cannot escape cyclical market sentiment swings. I overestimated short-term demand certainty and ignored macro policy headwinds before opening the position.

For risk management, I limit ASML to 8% of my total portfolio to avoid single-stock concentration risk. I will not rush to average down yet. If it falls below $1650 with heavy selling volume, I will trim part of the position to control losses. Moving forward, I will track its quarterly order backlogs and global chip manufacturing policies to adjust my holding strategy.

Bernstein: ASML High-NA EUV