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Rumor: Google is expanding orders for TPU AI server chips as demand heats up, with market researchers putting TPU demand at 15 million by 2028, more than Nvidia’s current 13 million per year, media report, adding Google turned to Intel for EMIB packaging because Nvidia pre-booked over 50% of TSMC’s CoWoS packaging for the next 3-years. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Intel(INTC.US) #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
Barclays believes Google can generate $252.7 billion in sales of TPU externally in 2028 by shifting TPUs from internal GCP rentals to an off-platform merchant model, backed by JVs with Blackstone and Broadcom scaling past 11 GW.
External ASP would grow from $20,000 in 2026 to $53,333. $Alphabet(GOOGL.US)
Jensen Huang: "no HBM for you, I need HBM!"
Overall Market & Demand Growth> Massive Expansion: Total HBM demand is projected to scale dramatically, reaching over 6 million k GB (approx. 48,618 mn Gb) by 2027.> Rapid Multi-Year Trajectory: Historical and projected growth shows a steep upward curve from 2023 through 2027, driven heavily by increasing deployment in AI GPUs and AI ASICs.NVIDIA's Market Dominance> Leading Consumer: NVIDIA remains the single largest consumer of HBM supply, commanding the largest share of the demand stack in 2027.> Key Products: High-demand products like the Rubin R200 stand out with massive total HBM demand (projected at over $1.7 million k GB), utilizing advanced HBM4 12hi configurations.> CoWoS Allocation: NVIDIA dominates advanced packaging allocations, notably with massive wafer distributions for products like the Vera CPU and Rubin series.Key Competitors and Ecosystem Players> Google: Google represents a massive portion of the AI ASIC HBM demand, particularly driven by TPU lines such as the TPU v8i (Sunfish), which demands over 1.1 million k GB of HBM.> AMD: Competes strongly with advanced offerings like the MI455 and MI350 series, utilizing HBM3e and HBM4 configurations sourced primarily through Samsung and Micron.> Cloud Service Providers (ASICs): Other major tech giants like AWS (Trainium 3) and Microsoft (Maia 300) account for significant shares of the total specialized hardware demand footprint.> NVIDIA holds the largest single share of projected HBM consumption at 36%.> Google represents a massive segment of demand at 35%, nearly matching NVIDIA due to its heavy reliance on custom TPU deployments.> AMD follows as the third-largest consumer with 16% of the market share.> AWS accounts for 5%, GUC's customers make up 3%, while Microsoft and Meta each take 2% of the projected 2027 consumption.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $AMD(AMD.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Micron Tech(MU.US) $DRAM $EWY
The market is currently narrowing down previous panic on one hand, while using a magnifying glass🔍 to scrutinize the conversion efficiency of corporate capital investment on the other. Google's catch-up rally on Friday serves as evidence for the first point, and the modest nature of this rally serves as evidence for the second.
I am waiting for Microsoft to fill its gap; I plan to buy a little.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Microsoft Rips 8%, Meta Cracks 10%
Microsoft and Meta reported minutes apart last night and the market split them right down the middle: MSFT ripped about 8% after hours as Azure grew 43%, while Meta's free cash flow collapsed to $784 ...
Uber Technologies Inc $Uber Tech(UBER.US) is trading around $70.36, down roughly 15% year-to-date and about 31% below its 52-week high. Despite the stock’s recent underperformance, the underlying business operations show remarkable financial resilience. Uber’s recent Q1 earnings showcased top-line expansion, with revenue reaching $13.2 billion (up 14.5% year-over-year) and gross bookings growing by over 21%. This operational efficiency has driven strong cash flows, highlighted by full-year 2025 free cash flow hitting $9.7 billion, giving the company plenty of leverage to pursue its aggressive $20 billion share buyback authorization.
The company is successfully building high-margin, sticky monetization layers on top of its core mobility and delivery ecosystems. Its flagship subscription service, Uber One, recently crossed the 50 million member milestone, with these loyal users now accounting for roughly half of the platform’s total gross bookings. Furthermore, Uber is rapidly growing its highly profitable digital advertising network. Initiatives like trip-based “Offers on Uber” and off-site ad integrations leverage its massive database to generate high-margin revenue streams that outpace the slower-growing logistics side of the business.
However, Wall Street remains highly focused on autonomous vehicle (AV) risks, especially given reports of a souring partnership with Alphabet’s Waymo. While a potential multi-city split with Waymo has caused negative market sentiment, Uber is actively diversifying its AV defenses. The company maintains over 20 global driverless partnerships—including an alliance with Autobrains in Europe—and a massive $1.25 billion deal with Rivian to deploy 50,000 robotaxis. With a forward P/E multiple of 17.5 making it cheaper than the broader market, the stock presents a compelling valuation gap ahead of its highly anticipated Q2 earnings report.
TSMC vs Intel: TSMC is working with Kinsus Interconnect to develop an EMIB-like technology to keep customers from switching to Intel’s EMIB advanced packaging, media report. Intel’s EMIB uses silicon bridges between chips for interconnect, instead of the silicon interposer TSMC uses in CoWoS packaging. Kinsus is a substrate maker and would provide bridge embedding work and manufacturing expertise. There has been talk Google might turn to Intel for EMIB. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Intel(INTC.US) #semiconductors
Source: Dan Nystedt
BofA: Hyperscalers
Massive Capital Expenditure (Capex) Surge> Record Growth in 2025–2026: Combined capex for the top US tech companies (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle) is projected to grow ~65% YoY in 2025 to reach a massive scale, followed by an additional ~100% YoY jump in 2026 to hit $730 billion.> Hitting the $1 Trillion Milestone: Combined annual capex is expected to surpass $1 trillion per annum by 2027 and 2028.> Individual Hyperscaler Breakdown (2026E): Oracle and Alphabet lead the YoY percentage growth chart for 2026E with triple-digit increases (around 120% and 118% respectively), closely followed by Microsoft and Meta.Robust Cloud Revenue Growth> Consistent Expansion: Cloud revenue across major providers (AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud) remains structurally strong, maintaining a solid 35–45% YoY growth trajectory through 2026–2028.> Revenue Trajectory: AWS continues to hold the top spot in total revenue terms heading into 2028, with Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud tracking closely behind on steep upward curves driven by surging AI infrastructure demand.Temporary Free Cash Flow (FCF) Pressure> Short-Term Dip: Driven by unprecedented AI infrastructure investments, several hyperscalers are expected to experience temporarily negative Free Cash Flow (FCF) through 2026 and 2027 as spending outpaces near-term cash flow growth.> Quarterly Volatility: Quarterly trends highlight notable dips into negative FCF territory for companies like Amazon and Alphabet during peak spending quarters before stabilizing.$Oracle(ORCL.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US)
+1$Alphabet(GOOGL.US) put all trade shares into let it ride
Source: Sunrise Trader
TRADING ENDS FOR THE MONTH OF JULY.
- Momentum has its worth month in 20 years but gets a slight recovery in the last two days- One of the largest AI funds lost 67% of its value in July after being 4x levered on $45b of assets but still is +80% YTD after Citadel buys their book- The Fed didn't hike rates- $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) and $Microsoft(MSFT.US) proved that AI is bringing an ROI with their cloud businesses and are only going to increase capex - Financials, insurance, energy, and healthcare have a great month- Oil spikes 15% due to Iran war fears- The South Korean KOSPI Index ends -20% for the month but was -40% during the worst of itEnjoy the weekend, if you got through July then youdeserve to.August up next!Source: amit
Most of the Mag 7 companies have already reported earnings and they were evenly matched, with half of them impressing while the other half flopping. Microsoft and Amazon are set to set new best records up in a single trading day as the AI reversal demand is very much back underway.
☕️ [Task Coins Giveaway] Daily Market Talk — Microsoft Sets a $450 Billion Record as Memory Chips Roar Back
Microsoft (MSFT) just made stock-market history. Shares surged about 15% Thursday, adding roughly $450B in market cap in a single day, the largest one-day dollar gain for any stock ever, beating Nvidi...
$Alphabet(GOOGL.US), doing well. #####
$Reddit(RDDT.US) Q2 was broadly solid.
Monetization once again surprised to the upside.As a key AI data source with a strong human signal, Reddit is benefiting from referral traffic tailwinds from Google and other gateways.
At the same time, it remains early in its commercialization, pushing beyond brand ads into performance ad monetization.However, a soft spot in US user growth became more pronounced this quarter, with US DAU declining QoQ for the first time.
This aligns with third-party data indicating user churn in Feb and Mar.
+11US stocks rose (SPX +0.4%, NDX +1.0%) as a global chipmakers’ rebound led by SK Hynix (+30%) and Samsung (+21%) lifted South Korea’s Kospi by an unprecedented 18%. In addition, $Amazon(AMZN.US) ‘s strong earnings last night (+12% pre-mkt) eased AI spending concerns. Apple fell -7% on weak guidance, while $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US) and $Meta Platforms(META.US) gained. $Tesla(TSLA.US) +1.5% after the WSJ reported that TSLA is considering a potential separation of its China business to pave the way for a possible merger with $SpaceX(SPCX.US). $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US) +4% after beating 2Q rev and EBITDA estimates and guiding to stronger FY’26 results on the initial strength of R2 SUV sales, RIVN’s cheaper $45K SUV that started deliveries in June. The chip rally followed Citadel buying discounted positions from the giant Situational Awareness hedge fund, which lost half its assets. Hyperscaler FY’26 AI CapEx guidance rose only modestly to ~$730B from $700B previously.
Mega-caps are rolling out results, and $Amazon(AMZN.US) reported its Q2 2026 print after the U.S. close on Jul 31 Beijing time.
The results vindicate Dolphin Research’s call last quarter. It is Amazon’s turn to shine.1) AWS is taking off? YoY growth accelerated from 28% to 37%, with revenue at $42.2bn. Anthropic’s ARR surge has delivered tangible tailwinds to AWS.More importantly, unlike most cloud peers, AWS is seeing both faster top-line growth and faster margin expansion. Segment OPM expanded 170bps QoQ...
+5$Microsoft(MSFT.US) Looked an numbers today. Business looked clean.
- Rev ~$90B- Azure +43% - Guidance ~45% next quarter- Azure crossed $100B annual, - Copilot at 30M paid seats. Capex stayed in a range the market could live with.Why I think it spiked? This is the "returns are here" print. $Meta Platforms(META.US) and $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) didn't show that. Spend is huge, but you can see it in Azure growth and backlog. Stock ripped double digits because it reset the AI narrative for the whole group.What to expect? Near term it leads the AI trade. Pullbacks get bought until the next print shows Azure slowing. Harder to chase after a 10%+ gap, easier on a digest into the move. Chart courtesy: @EconomyApp
AI server giant Quanta Computer plans to raise up to US$2.2 billion (NT$71.2B) through a GDS (Global Depositary Share) offering in Luxembourg, media report, the biggest overseas fundraising by a Taiwan firm in nearly 20-years, media report, with the funds to be used for factory construction, component and materials purchases, more. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $Amazon(AMZN.US) $Alphabet(GOOGL.US) $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Meta Platforms(META.US) #Quanta #AIservers
Source: Dan Nystedt
Re-acquired some $Meta Platforms(META.US). After reducing positions in $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), holding steady. Overweight position in $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) remains unchanged; memory sector has suffered significant losses this round, so I'm ignoring it. For hardware, selling new high calls on sharp rallies; current assessment is that hardware is unlikely to return to June highs. Focus for H2 is on major cloud providers; both Meta and Google show desire to increase positions. Main thoughts and assessments: The narrative of commoditization of models is strengthening, and the competitive-cooperative relationship between cloud and frontier models has entered a stage of mutually beneficial achievement. Overall, cloud may have the upper hand.
Key points from $Amazon(AMZN.US) earnings call:
CEO Andy Jassy: "I think we're still in the relatively early stages of how much demand there's going to be for AI."AWS:- Fifth straight quarter of AWS acceleration and fastest growth in 18 quarters.- AWS revenue was $42.2B (+37% YoY), and growth was about 80% more than Amazon's largest increase ever.- Accelerating off a 2x larger base means the absolute dollar adds are unprecedented.- Backlog is $496B which is ~2.5x Q3'25 level which derisks the capex fairly significantly.- "The lion's share of capacity in 2027...is largely reserved. And we have quite a bit of capacity that's already been reserved for 2028"- Trainium: "the two leading AI labs in the world, Anthropic and OpenAI, making multi-year, multi-gigawatt commitments"- Amazon also predict that AWS could be a $1T annual revenue business. At current growth rates, it looks like that could actually happen by 2030.Capex / FCF:- Raised 2026 capex by $20B to ~$220B. Surging memory costs are the key driver. $Apple(AAPL.US) also confirming on their earnings e.g. "For September, we expect to pay even higher memory costs."- TTM FCF now -$7.6B because of ~67B long-term issuance in H1. "You've seen us issue debt this year... we have a lot of options available to us".- "If the demand isn't there, we won't spend the capital for servers and networking equipment" - positive signals on surging demand.- "We will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026. And I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027 too."Demand shape:- AI labs "consuming gobs and gobs of compute" like Anthropic and OpenAI.- Current enterprise production workloads "will be the largest absolute segment"- "Enterprises are still very early in using inference at scale in their current production applications"Summary:- Same message as $Alphabet(GOOGL.US), $Microsoft(MSFT.US) and $Meta Platforms(META.US) where demand exceeds supply through 2027 at least.- Binding constraint is capacity.- $496B of contracted backlog against capacity sold out two years forward just confirms demand > supply.Very good earnings overall in my opinion. Glad that the markets didn't look at the negative FCF in a bad way when you consider a contracted backlog of $496B is being built/supplied against it.Maybe the best hyperscaler earnings this quarter?$Meta Platforms(META.US) likely to follow $Alphabet - C(GOOG.US)’s trajectory after missing estimates last week - down -10% after the print, and then a quick recovery (+5% so far) as investors came to realize the results adjusted for one time items weren’t bad, and the slightly negative near-term guidance was management taking its usual conservative stance. The main difference between the two businesses - GOOG revs come mostly from search, META mainly from advertising - are punctuated by GOOG having a surging cloud business and highly popular chat bot (Gemini), while META has neither.
GOOG trades at 17x 2026 EV/EBITDA and is growing long-term revs at +20% CGR; META trades at an 11x EV/EBITDA and is growing long-term revs at +18% CGR. So while META is cheaper, GOOG likely has the better business.
