Krne Csi China Internet

Strategy Report

KWEB

STECH

Hello everyone, this is Dolphin Research! In last week's strategy report, Dolphin Research mentioned that after the tariff issue was settled, the market's focus would shift to Trump's second wave of tax cuts and industrial policies. &#34;But the fatal BUG here is that tax cuts and industrial stimulus essentially require fiscal backing.&#34; Will the upcoming short-term trading revolve around this &#34;BUG,&#34; thereby affecting the valuation expectations of the entire asset class? Let's take a detailed look: 1. Trump's &#34;Big, Beautiful Bill&#34; = &#34;Big Deficit&#34; Bill? This new bill, the &#34;Big, Beautiful Bill&#34;...

Invesco QQQ Trust

Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X

Hang Seng TECH Index

"Big and beautiful" = "big deficit", will US stocks be dragged down by US bonds again?

DJTWW

The return of Trump, its impact on the Chinese concept stock $Krne Csi China Internet(KWEB.US), I'll just post this layman's chart for everyone to feel. Trump proposed 10-20% tariffs on all imported goods and 60% tariffs on Chinese products. Whether it's just talk or not, the attitude is clear - bringing manufacturing back. Next year's economy will depend on domestic demand (aka policy stimulus).

Trump Media & Tech

Trump Media & Tech - CW28

Hot topic

$Krne Csi China Internet(KWEB.US) $Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK) anticipated that after the Fed rate cut, the domestic policy space would open up, but did not expect such a significant shift in attitude towards the economy. Especially since normally, the political meetings at the end of September or in October do not usually focus on the economy, so this change in attitude came as a surprise. The current domestic economy is ailing, the symptoms of this ailment: deflation expectations are gradually solidifying, fundamentally due to the inability to sustain the previous economic model and the inability to find new driving forces...

Crazy! Chinese Concept Stocks

🤣Now long China becomes the most crowded trade!$Krne Csi China Internet(KWEB.US)

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points and confirmed the start of a rate-cutting cycle, China's policy space has finally opened up. The last rebound opportunity for Chinese concept stocks this year, as previously mentioned by Dolphin Research, has arrived.In addition to the rare combination of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, as well as measures to address high mortgage rates for homeowners who bought at peak prices by further reducing existing mortgage rates, the real surprises were the policies targeting listed companies (CNY 300 billion, with the central bank lending to banks at 1.75% and banks lending to listed companies at 2.25%) and the tools for banks, insurers, and securities firms to borrow funds for stock purchases (CNY 500 billion). These policies are purely aimed at boosting the stock market.For example, the swap facility for banks, insurers, and securities firms allows these institutions to use their holdings of stocks/ETFs as collateral with the central bank to obtain funds for further stock and ETF purchases, creating a cycle until the facility's quota is exhausted.This isn't just about the quota (especially since the central bank has indicated it can increase the quota), but more about the fact that short sellers now face a central bank with unlimited firepower, which has a significant deterrent effect on short selling.The loan tool for listed companies to repurchase and increase holdings also positively encourages companies to step up buybacks, sending a clear warning to short sellers.Other deterrent measures include the possibility of further cuts to the reserve requirement ratio by 25-50 basis points and the potential for additional quotas if the swap facility proves effective.These policies clearly demonstrate that, with the Fed's rate cuts easing pressure on the yuan's exchange rate, China's monetary policy space has expanded. The rapid joint action by China's three major financial regulators reflects an obvious intent to rescue the market, with a pronounced deterrent effect on short sellers.In terms of results, one visible outcome is that Chinese concept stocks (which generally have ample cash but are undervalued) have seen short sellers genuinely spooked under this policy onslaught, helping valuations rebound from extreme pessimism. This is what Dolphin Research referred to as the last opportunity for China's overseas assets amid the Fed's rate cuts.However, after this rebound, sustained fundamental improvement still depends on demand recovery. What's really needed here is fiscal policy, with monetary policy playing a supporting role. The direction and scale of fiscal policy will likely only become clear after December's economic conference. In the short term, the momentum of the monetary policy-driven rally in the latter half will hinge on October's consumption performance.$Krne Csi China Internet(KWEB.US)

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