Defiance Daily Target 2X Short PLTR ETF

Another win for corporations, another loss for Americans

Companies that paid $0 in federal income tax despite profiting billions in 2025

• Disney $Disney(DIS.US): $1.74B

• CVS $CVS Health(CVS.US): $1.38B

• Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US): $1.19B

• United Airlines $United Airlines(UAL.US): $901M

• Coinbase $Coinbase(COIN.US): $340M

• Palantir $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US): $332M

Your tax break:

• $0

S a a S

S u m m e r

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) 107 —> $179

$Shopify (SHOP.US) $97 —> $157

$Reddit(RDDT.US) $120 —> $155

$Adobe(ADBE.US) $193 —> $271

$ServiceNow(NOW.US) $80 —> $125

$Datadog(DDOG.US) $105 —> $252

$Atlassian(TEAM.US) $57 —> $165

$Zeta Global(ZETA.US) $18 —> $29

$IGV +42% from April lows

anyone who took a chance on software over the past few months, especially in the face of semis ripping higher daily, deserves to enjoy this one

quality businesses that are governing and orchestrating tokens got sold off for fears from model companies that ultimately will be providing AI tools to make the application layer even stronger

the rotation to SaaS is also not taking away from semis which is strong for the broader health of the market

Source: amit

Loved:

$Atlassian(TEAM.US) ✅

$ServiceNow(NOW.US) ✅

$Shopify (SHOP.US) ✅

$Twilio(TWLO.US) ✅

$Snowflake(SNOW.US) ✅

$Microsoft(MSFT.US) ✅

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) ✅

$Sea(SE.US) ✅

$Digital Turbine(APPS.US) ✅

$Five9(FIVN.US) ✅

Yet to be loved:

$Workday(WDAY.US)⏳

$Salesforce(CRM.US) ⏳

$Adobe(ADBE.US) ⏳

$Intuit(INTU.US)⏳

$Oracle(ORCL.US) 👀

Dusted:

$HubSpot(HUBS.US) ❌

$Duolingo(DUOL.US) ❌

$Trade Desk(TTD.US) ❌

$Chegg(CHGG.US) ❌

$Upwork(UPWK.US) ❌

I must have missed a few names, add if you can think of.

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) | Phillip Securities 𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗕𝘂𝘆 on 𝗣𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗿, raises PT to $𝟮𝟭𝟱 from $𝟮𝟬𝟮

Analyst sees Palantir’s Ontology moat and AIP tools driving automation, enterprise AI adoption, and its US government position.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Okay, so let’s talk about what Nvidia actually announced today…

I’ll present the bear and the bull case. I lean more bullish for reasons that are below, but I want to highlight both sides and what this means for the broader AI industry.

So, what did Jensen do today that required 6 of the most important bankers to sit with him live on national television?

Well, he just secured $500B of revenue for Nvidia.

The entire press release is centered around financing supply for NVIDIA compute with a “rich ecosystem of offtakers built upon NVIDIA’S CUDA platform.” The announcement literally ends by saying “this will create dedicated pools of capital at significant scale at attractive rates for NVIDIA customers.”

This move is not to increase supply for the demand that Broadcom, AMD, Google TPUs, etc. are seeing. This move may help all those companies find ways for more buyers to potentially finance their products as more money enters the ecosystem, but this is explicitly a move that Jensen is making to secure $500B of demand that will flood into Nvidia. It’s a very, very smart move.

How do I envision it playing out? Let’s say a neocloud needs $5B of capital to buy Nvidia GPUs. Now, Nvidia does $100B+ of FCF, they obviously could invest in that neocloud or just give that neocloud a loan to buy their chips. But, that ends up putting some strain on their balance sheet. Nvidia has an excellent balance sheet, just increased their dividend by 25X, and has committed $80B to buybacks.

So, instead of Nvidia taking on the financial risk, they essentially vet the neocloud and tell Goldman Sachs that this company deserves a $5B loan. Goldman trusts Jensen, they give the neocloud the money, the neocloud then spends it on Nvidia chips, eventually the ROI from that compute goes back to paying Goldman with interest, which is the entire business of a bank, lending capital to customers with an attractive risk profile to make a return on that capital.

The combined banks Nvidia is working with have 25T in assets. They are committing $500B of those assets for this project.

Okay…the bull and bear cases.

Bull:

- Obviously, great for Nvidia has they remove all financial risk but get financial institutions to make a loan that directly will go back to Nvidia in the form of chip sales.

- Should be good for memory, CPUs, optics, packaging, photonics, all parts of the semi stack. You can’t just buy Nvidia chips, you need to buy everything that goes into it and so all the semi names likely see their earnings continued to be sustained with hyperscaler capex and now a fresh 500B entering into the ecosystem. The market did not take those names up afterhours on this deal which likely means the market is still trying to figure out how bullish this is and if it’s sustainable.

- Compute as an asset class is the main thing that was discussed today which is what the financial institutions want: they would like to build futures/derivatives products on compute like they do for oil, crypto, real estate mortgages, etc. and create a new financial asset class that allows liquidity and fees to emerge. This is, in my opinion, the number one reason the banks are interested: the more compute, the more financial applications to speculate on that compute while trusting that Jensen knows how to allocate this 500B to continue progressing AI globally.

Bear:

- It’s circular financing. If no ROI on all the companies these banks put money into, even with Jensen’s approval, the loans don’t get paid back and if Nvidia has to promise to backstop those loans in someway, it could create a major risk to their balance sheet.

- Nvidia picks the wrong labs or clouds to invest in. Nvidia has been pretty good at allocating capital, but if they end up giving money to companies that will buy their chips but ultimately can’t execute (like having a ton of GPUs but not strong enough to set up datacenters quickly) then there will be questions around why those companies got the money which could lead the banks to not want to give out more loans, these are just MOUs, not confirmed agreements to begin allocating capital.

- Too much leverage in the system. If we do start to see financial derivatives of compute as an asset class, then there may be too many people speculating and with that speculation comes for the potential to have bad underwriting and essentially create too many products around compute that don’t actually provide any value which eventually collapses.

Ultimately, I lean on the bullish side because I believe there is an ROI coming from this compute. If there wasn’t, it’s just money switching hands back and forth with no real value. Ultimately, the market will have to see additional innovations in AI beyond just agentic inference which effectively has defined 2026 to see demand continuing to grow but also believe that the real value to GDP and productivity shows up in earnings growth (which we are seeing this year with S&P earnings) to make sense of this $500B entering into the ecosystem. If the ROI continues along with earnings growth, I would imagine the market feels like the fresh capital is going to only create more innovation and more growth which would be rewarded.

What do you think, bullish or bearish on this announcement?

Source: amit

BURRY:

- I BOUGHT MORE PUTS ON $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) PALANTIR FOR MARCH 2027 $100 STRIKES

- I THINK THE COMPANY'S SHARES ARE WORTH UNDER $1 IN THE LONG RUN

i understand those Q2 earnings were so good that Burry probably couldn't sleep for a few days but doubling down might not be the right strategy

bro is shorting reality at this point 💀

Source: amit

People always ask me if I got paid by $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

Thanks a ridiculous question. I should be the one paying them…🤣

Breaking: Michael Burry has disclosed his updated positions

He:

• Added to Lululemon $Lululemon(LULU.US) long at $127.45

• Added to Freddie Mac $Freddie Mac(FMCC.US) long at $5.43

• Added to Mercado Libre $Mercadolibre(MELI.US) long at $1812.39

• Added to Fiserv $Fiserv, Inc.(FISV.US) long at $51.93

• Added to Zoetis $Zoetis(ZTS.US) long at $72.72

• Added to Semiconductor ETF $SOXX short at $541

Burry left his Tesla and Palantir shorts untouched

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

+40% in a week

it took three quarters of flawless execution this year for the market to remember that the value from AI is being derived via Palantir’s approach to building for outcomes vs just tokens

have not seen $170 since January, back to a $400B market cap

LFG

Source: amit

so…the S&P is basically at ATHs

Trump has said 7 different times this week that he wants a deal with Iran

Bessent said a ceasefire could be announced over the weekend

Rate hike probabilities tanked by 20% today because of the labor market data

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) is up 40% in a week…which means the software stocks are finally getting the respect they deserve including $Microsoft(MSFT.US) $Reddit(RDDT.US) $Shopify (SHOP.US)

earnings continue to compound aggressively

the super high-beta semi names are consolidating like $Micron Tech(MU.US) $Nebius(NBIS.US) which isn’t bearish at all, especially when their growth continues to be massive

hyperscalers continue to spend on capex and cloud growth rates are showing the ROI

leverage also has been wiped out significantly

feels like we could be setting up for an end of year run IF hikes are out of the picture and earnings continue strong

the main bear case felt like oil/leverage/war/hikes

my only fear is OpenAI and Anthropic’s numbers not being meaningful enough to carry out their spending commitments but those will be shown over time

if those broader bear cases are not as relevant as inflation comes down…maybe we can continue with the momentum

Source: amit

Everyone is excited about $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US) now, after a major spike.

Real investors get excited when it drops 30% and sit back and relax when it spikes.

Please build good habits.