Invesco QQQ Trust

Strategy Report

.SPX

SOXS

.IXIC

SQQQ

GLDM

SDOW

SGOL

SOXL

TQQQ

UPRO

Originally, the market was continuously declining due to liquidity withdrawal caused by the U.S. government shutdown and concerns over supply chain financing surrounding OpenAI. However, now that the U.S. government has reopened and NVIDIA's strong performance has been released, the market still isn't buying it. What exactly is wrong with the U.S. stock market? With only five weeks left in 2025, has it completely turned into garbage time? Is there still hope for AI in 2026? 1. Looking towards 2026, what exactly are Trump's demands? There is one last chance for a rate cut this year—the interest rate meeting on December 10th. From a macro perspective, the current market's short-term nerves seem to be dominated by the prospect of a rate cut...

VanEck Semiconductor ETF

iShares Core S&P Mid Cap

S&P 500

Direxion Semicon Bear 3X

iShares Gold Trust

NASDAQ Composite Index

Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF

SPDR Gold Minishares

SPDR Gold Shares

iShares Core S&P Small Cap

ISHRS Russ 1000

iShares Core S&P 500

Pro UltrPro Shrt Dow30

Abrdn Gold ETF Trust

Direxion Semicon Bull 3X

Proshares UltraPro QQQ

Pro Ultr Bloomberg Crude Oil

Pro UltrPro S&Pro 500

NVIDIA

OpenAI

Destiny Tech100

Bubble Talk Rising, Will AI Continue as Hottest Bet in 2026?

ABTC

GBTC

SBET

Continued tight liquidity has started to affect beneficiaries under ample liquidity, such as Bitcoin, as well as tech growth stocks with weak fundamentals and excessive valuations. But what cause the liquidity shortage abruption? what may ease it? and how to position portfolios under this circumstance?

American Bitcoin

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC - ETF

SharpLink Gaming

Angel Oak Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF

ON Semiconductor

U.S. gov. shutdown to trigger a 'dollar shortage'?

KWEB

STECH

Hello everyone, this is Dolphin Research! In last week's strategy report, Dolphin Research mentioned that after the tariff issue was settled, the market's focus would shift to Trump's second wave of tax cuts and industrial policies. &#34;But the fatal BUG here is that tax cuts and industrial stimulus essentially require fiscal backing.&#34; Will the upcoming short-term trading revolve around this &#34;BUG,&#34; thereby affecting the valuation expectations of the entire asset class? Let's take a detailed look: 1. Trump's &#34;Big, Beautiful Bill&#34; = &#34;Big Deficit&#34; Bill? This new bill, the &#34;Big, Beautiful Bill&#34;...

Krne Csi China Internet

Direxion 20+Yr Trsry Bull 3X

Hang Seng TECH Index

"Big and beautiful" = "big deficit", will US stocks be dragged down by US bonds again?

Hot topic

DJTWW

Trump once again wields the tariff stick, and global assets seem to have entered a risk-off mode, including the Chinese assets that were originally being reassessed, which have also entered a correction mode. Dolphin Research seizes the opportunity to discuss the policy logic of Trump’s current administration. In fact, if you pay attention to the media interviews of the U.S. Treasury Bessent during this period, Trump's fiscal policies are quite understandable: 1. Core belief: The allocation efficiency of the private sector is higher than that of the government sector. 2. Policy objectives: Reduce national debt (the core is interest payment costs), lower inflation, and bring manufacturing back...

SPDR S&P 500

Trump Media & Tech

Trump Media & Tech - CW28

How to interpret Trump's tariff stick this year?

WEBL

.DJI

As the first interest rate cut by the U.S. dollar entering the post-pandemic era of rate cuts, this rate cut can be described as both &#34;big&#34; and &#34;hawkish.&#34;The &#34;big&#34; lies in the fact that the first rate cut directly slashed 50 basis points, which was indeed unexpected compared to market expectations; the &#34;hawkish&#34; aspect was conveyed during the conference call and the dot plot, indicating that this 50-basis-point cut should not be linearly extrapolated, and future decisions will still be data-driven. This 50-basis-point cut was merely to demonstrate the Federal Reserve's determination to protect the economy.An interesting point was when several reporters repeatedly asked Powell whether this was a &#34;catch-up&#34; rate cut. Powell emphasized that, given the relatively good data on inflation and consumption, the large rate cut was more focused on being a forward-looking move. However, he also admitted that if the July employment data had been known earlier, a rate cut might indeed have been implemented at the previous meeting on July 31.From Dolphin Research's perspective, this illustrates two points:a. Among the various economic data, the current unemployment rate and new employment figures are the real core data, as subsequent CPI and PPI reports did not raise any red flags for the Federal Reserve.b. The dot plot released by the Federal Reserve to some extent only reflects the Fed's wishes and guides the market to trade on these wishes, but it does not mean this path will necessarily materialize.From the revisions in this economic forecast, it can be seen that among the root variables of the economy, the most significantly revised was the unemployment rate. The 大幅下修的政策利率预期 is merely a result of this root variable.Therefore, in the coming period, a key tracking point for the expected rate cut 幅度 will be the labor market: What is the labor participation rate? How much has labor supply increased? How much has job demand decreased? How much has the unemployment rate increased, and is it within the &#34;controllable&#34; range below 4.5%?Especially given the 惯性下修 in 每次新增非农就业， it’s prudent to build in some 保险 upfront. Based on the downward adjustments over the past few months, some decline should already be factored in. At least, this is how Powell indicated the Federal Reserve would approach the data.Furthermore, Dolphin Research is not overly concerned about this hawkish rate cut path guidance. The key still lies in the employment data, particularly if the weakening is primarily due to an oversupply from increased immigrant inflows rather than a decline in corporate job demand. In that case, the economy may not be as weak as feared.

iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd

Direxion Daily Dow Jones Internet Bull 3X Shares ETF

Dow Jones Industrial Average

United Super Pty Ltd reduces holdings in Meta Platforms

Te Ahumairangi Increased Holdings in Meta Platforms

OpenAI undergoes a major governance overhaul, seen as a capital restructuring

Idaho Trust Reduced Holdings in Broadcom

NVIDIA to Participate in SIGGRAPH Asia 2025 in Hong Kong

Seaview Investment Managers LLC reduces stake in Broadcom

SageView Advisory Increases Broadcom Shares, CEO Tan Sells

National Pension Service Reportedly Trims Stock Position in NVIDIA

US Bank Reiterates Buy Rating on Nvidia

Microsoft to hold Technology Innovation Summit on December 9-10, focusing on AI and cloud strategy

Cantor Fitzgerald Analyst Maintains Neutral Rating on Google with a Price Target of $310

Media reports claim Apple Glasses will be released in 2026

Google releases research on "Nested Learning" that could reshape the future of AI.

Netflix Acquisition of Warner Bros Faces Hollywood Opposition

EU antitrust probe into Meta's WhatsApp AI policy continues as deadline approaches

Sina Finance reports a 31-year Microsoft veteran was laid off amid AI division restructuring

Apple Opens Sixth Retail Store in Beijing, Using Local Eco-Friendly Materials

Netflix's Mega Acquisition of Warner Bros. Reshapes Theme Park Landscape

Meta Platforms will go ex-dividend on December 15, 2025, paying $0.525 per share.