TalkSpace - CW25

Trump just posted on X that he has reached an agreement with Iran to "highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future" and that Strait of Hormuz is now open without Naval blockade, with about 19 million barrels of oil flowing out yesterday. I don't know how much truth there is in his words, but it seems that he is trying to calm the stock market. I personally is no longer as emotionally affected by his words anymore as we all know from time to time again that what was agreed upon may change within days, if not hours.

STI remains strong while the US market is dumping. Are people wrong for overlooking our own local market? Investing in the S&P will definitely still yield better returns over time, but the currency risk & volatility should not be underestimated as well. STI tends to hold better in downturns, while consistently delivering decent if not even better than expected returns in recent years.

Micron Technology remains well positioned for long-term growth as AI infrastructure spending, strong HBM demand, and favorable memory pricing continue to act as powerful tailwinds.With expectations running high ahead of earnings, the stock’s next move will likely depend on management’s guidance rather than the reported results alone

While strong results and higher guidance could drive further upside toward the $1,300 range a report that merely meets expectations may trigger profit-taking and increased volatility.

“Shipowners will not resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz for weeks until they are confident that the US-Iran deal is “material”, the chief executive of Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines told the Financial Times in an interview published on Tuesday (Jun 16)” - Source: Financial times

I have the same thinking as above. The current Middle East unrest is not so straightforward.

Takes weeks or months to improve the situation .😫 Current stock markets are way to optimistic. Let’s observe how the Fed chairman comments later.

Still have a bit of upwards

Looks like the bull has resumed for the memory chips. How long it will last, I don’t know. Just follow the smart money and don’t be left holding the bag.

Certainty is a fuel to sentiments especially to the bulls. And we can see that from the way the markets rally to a peace deal which seems more likely.

Now that the peace deal has firmed up, everyone seems to be in a buoyant risk on mode again. I am net long but cautiously so.

AI storage theme remains compelling as larger and more sophisticated AI models continue to drive demand for high-performance memory, storage and data management solutions. This provides a strong long term growth tailwind for companies exposed to AI infrastructure. However, after the sector’s significant rally, investors should expect periods of consolidation and heightened volatility, even as the underlying growth outlook remains intact.

Nvdia stock price running up last few years, make a lot of people become multi millionaire in world wide. are you one of them ?

Warsh will definitely be cutting rates as he believes the AI benefits will push down inflation, even from the negative impact of the Iran war. I will be longing major banks and long duration junk bond!

I believe Trump will achieve a big deal in his visit to China. He needs something to overcome the fallout of the Iran war. Get ready for another bull run!

Berkshire just doesn't feel the same after the legendary Warren Buffet retired. Without the old captain at the helm, there is nothing noteworthy of this entity, except it's sitting on a humongous pile of cash waiting to be deployed. The magic of the annual letter and AGM with the guru is gone, would anyone still go attend?

This week marks a turning point as Jerome Powell will hold his final Fed press conference. I am waiting to listen to his speech and understand his view before taking my trading position . We may see new Fed Kevin Warsh appear at Wednesday's meeting. His appearance and his comment will add value to investors.

I hope Powell stays on the Fed board after his term ends on May 15. His experience would be a great asset to help the new Fed navigate today's tough economic environment.

Powell stepping down at May, the future remain fairly unpredictable yet the indexes are testing new high, stay alert and have some cash bullet ready.

The helium shortage is causing a rally in memory and semicon space. This is one of the winner if the straits or hormuz remains closed. Get ready for more rally coming right up. Tailwind 100%

Inflation is going to start creeping in and rate hike is back in the book. The market is clearly overconfident and things will break soon. How can oil and equities rally at the same time?