Mirae Asset Securities: AI Bottleneck IssuePower B

Mirae Asset Securities: AI Bottleneck Issue

Power Bottleneck

> The Moment for Analog Semiconductors: The value of the analog domain, where Moore's Law does not apply, is exploding, giving suppliers overwhelming pricing power. Major players like TI, NXP, and Infineon are proving this dominant supplier market by executing synchronized price hikes in 2026.

> The Physics of 12,500 Amperes and 800V DC: In ultra-high-density AI racks of 600kW to 1MW, sticking to traditional 48V power distribution causes the current to skyrocket to 12,500A, making operations impossible due to heat loss. Therefore, shifting the architecture to 800V to reduce the current to 750A and cut copper requirements by 45% is a physical inevitability.

> Vertical Power Delivery (VPD): To prevent loss and voltage fluctuations during the "last inch" of stepping down to the GPU core voltage (around 0.7V), VPD—essentially the "CPO of the power world"—is emerging, which places the power converter directly beneath the GPU die.

Signal & Photonics Bottleneck

> Distance-Based Redistribution of Copper and Optics: The simplistic narrative that "optics will completely wipe out copper" is incorrect. A distance-based redistribution is intensifying, where copper and analog handle short distances (the scale-up domain) and optics take over long distances (rack-to-rack connectivity).

> Semtech’s Analog Magic: In 200G/lane high-speed communication, Semtech's technology is garnering massive attention by completely eliminating DSPs (Digital Signal Processors)—which consume heavy power and cause latency—and correcting signals using only Analog Equalizers. This reduces power consumption by tenfold and slashes latency from nanoseconds (ns) to picoseconds (ps).

> The Real Bottleneck in Optical Tech is the 'Light Source': While Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) is the correct long-term direction, the realistic winners for the next 2 to 3 years are Near-Packaged Optics (NPO) and 1.6T pluggable modules. The true bottlenecks in optical communication lie below the finished optical module layer: InP (Indium Phosphide) substrates, Continuous Wave (CW) laser sources, Photonics-SOI wafers (monopolized by Soitec), and SiPho foundries.

> Network Reliability and 'Link Flap': The "Link Flap" phenomenon, where an optical link momentarily blinks, disrupts the synchronization (all-reduce) of the entire AI cluster and leaves GPUs idling. In massive clusters, solutions that guarantee reliability rather than just bandwidth (such as Credo's Zero-Flap) become the ultimate bottleneck determining economic viability.

$Tower Semicon(TSEM.US) $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $Intel(INTC.US) $GlobalFoundries(GFS.US) $Fabrinet(FN.US) $Semtech(SMTC.US) $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) $Amphenol(APH.US) $Credo Tech(CRDO.US)