Gary Black Tracker
2026.07.22 21:35

$Tesla(TSLA.US) (-3% AH) after missing on auto gross margins ex-reg credits (16.3% vs 18.4%) which drove huge miss in non-gaap eps ($.33 vs $.55 WS est). CapExp of $5.8B caused free cash flow to go negative -$1.1B, which was expected. On the positive side, active FSD subs of 1.48M was 16% QoQ vs 1Q (+63% annualized) and the 2Q attachement rate of FSD to North American deliveries was a record 55%. Optimus production is still scheduled to begin late-2026.

Conf call at 530ET. Investors most want to hear how quickly unsupervised autonomy without safety monitors (currently 40 TSLA vehicles vs Waymo 3,500 vehicles) can scale.

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