$Tesla(TSLA.US) -7% this morning and if the pre-mkt decline holds is now -23% YTD vs NDX +15%.
TSLA management could have provided one or two common unsupervised autonomous metrics with yesterday’s earnings: 1/ # of unsupervised autonomous vehicles operating without safety operators, which we estimate to be ~40 vs Waymo at 3,500; or its close cousin: 2/ #paid unsupervised autonomous rides completed per week without safety monitors (we estimate TSLA at 4,000 vs Waymo ~500K) so investors could measure TSLA’s progress in unsupervised autonomy vs peers. Instead, TSLA provided largely irrelevant metrics on its 2Q earnings call, like cumulative unsupervised autonomous miles since starting its unsupervised autonomous ride-hailing program (380,000), and % weekly gain in unsupervised miles driven per week year-to-date (10%+ per week) without clarifying the metric or providing a starting base. Investors hate uncertainty and $Tesla(TSLA.US) seems unwilling or unable to reduce the uncertainty associated with its scale-up of unsupervised autonomy with their disclosures. That obfuscation is clearly hurting TSLA stock. The idea that TSLA stock is down this morning because of its planned FY2026 capexp spend of $25 billion (no change vs prior) is absurd. @travisraxelrod
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