Hong Kong-US Market Review (9.26): The Difference Between Technique and Principle

Dear friends, today I want to talk about why I never recommend discussing whether "technical analysis is useful or not" with others.

It's simple—because you're not talking about the same thing.

In the eyes of many, so-called "technical analysis" is just a few isolated candlestick patterns, moving averages, and indicator signals used to predict future trends. Frankly, this understanding is like fortune-telling—it relies on divination, not a system.

But in the eyes of those who truly explore trading systems, technical analysis is nothing like that. It is a geometry of market structure, a sociology of crowd psychology, and, more importantly, a science for dealing with uncertainty. The gap between the two is the chasm between "technique" and "principle."

The growth of trading is about forging your own "principle."

Therefore, the growth of trading is essentially a path to building your own "principle."

Of course, you can study Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, or Wyckoff's methods—these are the "paths" left by predecessors. But you must walk these paths yourself. Through countless reviews, real trades, losses, and reflections, you can gradually verify, refine, and internalize them, until they become part of your instincts—the way you see and think about the market.

A true "principle" must be complete. It must answer all the key questions in your trading: Under what conditions should you enter? When must you exit? When should you hold on? How do you manage your position? When facing consecutive losses, is it the market that's wrong, or is there a problem with the system itself?

Only when you've connected all these into a logical loop can external noise truly no longer disturb you.

When you have a "principle," the market becomes your stage.

Once you have your own system, the market's ups and downs are no longer random euphoria or panic—they become scenes in your script. You know when to step onto the stage and play your role, and when to sit back and watch quietly.

Every trade is an execution of your system. Every decision has logical backing; every profit or loss is part of your journey. That steadiness comes from truly forging your own "principle."

$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) : Trend unchanged, waiting patiently for the next move

Back to the market. The Hang Seng Index saw a pullback today, but there's no need to panic. In the long run, as long as it keeps making higher highs, that's enough. The major trend hasn't changed, so short-term fluctuations aren't worth worrying about. For the cautious, I still maintain my previous view: If the pullback continues, it will likely find support around 25,800 before rebounding.

Hong Kong Stocks (Long-term): Clear rhythm, unchanged logic

Long-term holdings: $MEITUAN(03690.HK) ,$JD-SW(09618.HK) ,$BABA-W(09988.HK) .

Alibaba: Started pulling back today—no problem, wait for the pullback to find an opportunity.

JD.com: As mentioned yesterday, the target is adjusted to 160—this hasn't changed.

Meituan: Just see if this pullback offers a chance around 95—that's when to add.

U.S. Stocks: Waiting patiently for the right price

$Tesla(TSLA.US) : Finally started pulling back—this is the opportunity we've been waiting for.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) : I think the pullback isn't over yet—no rush.

$Apple(AAPL.US) : Similarly, waiting for a pullback opportunity.

$Amazon(AMZN.US) : Be careful with entry points—aggressive traders can aim for 220, while conservative ones should wait for 215 or even 210.

Summary

Nothing special today—just a market pullback. Remember the most important thing: Technique is technique, principle is principle. What others see as technical analysis may forever remain at the level of "technique," but what we aim for is to internalize it into our own "principle."

The market won't always go your way, but if the logic remains unchanged, there's no need to panic. The major trend is still intact, and opportunities are always there.