Hong Kong-US Market Review (10.14)

"Trump Again? Don't Panic, He Really Can't Stir Up Much This Time"

Friends, Trump has started his "mouth cannon" mode again, this time threatening to impose 100% tariffs on China. We talked a lot about this in the channel yesterday, so today I’ll just summarize it in one sentence—this is nothing new, just the same old playbook. Looking back at his moves over the years, in terms of investments, he’s almost become a "reverse beacon." Every time he opens his mouth, the market trembles for a short while but quickly recovers. Why? Because his cards are pretty much all laid out. This time is no different. Goldman Sachs’ latest report makes it clear—these series of actions by both China and the U.S. are just about gaining bargaining chips ahead of the APEC Summit at the end of the month. Some market volatility is normal. Goldman even directly pointed out: If Chinese stocks fall because of this news, it’s actually an opportunity. I completely agree with this. Look, since 2018, we’ve gone through several rounds of their threats to raise tariffs and have accumulated a lot of experience in dealing with them. Honestly, of all the U.S. tactics, the one we fear the least is "raising tariffs." Faced with our "chokehold" on rare earth exports, the only trick he has left now is this small move. And today, news came out again—he hinted at canceling the new tariffs. So, this guy is still the same—scare, test, then retreat. Same old style.

What Does the Market Think? The Drop Was Expected

Today’s market drop was entirely expected, but the magnitude was smaller than imagined. My personal view is—next, it’ll either stabilize here or grind for a while longer, but it doesn’t matter. You want me to predict the market now? That’s really meaningless. These short-term daily fluctuations can’t predict anything. Honestly, who remembers what the intraday trend was a week or a month ago? The market has its own rhythm for corrections and shakeouts. What we can do is dare to add positions when low-price opportunities appear. When it comes to stock trading, too often people "see too close." Life is about focusing on the present; investing is about looking to the future.

Hang Seng Index: Trend Unchanged, Stay Calm

The Hang Seng’s movement today was quite normal—high open, low close, as expected. As long as the major trend hasn’t changed, there’s nothing to worry about. What we need to watch is still that logic—one wave higher than the last. As long as that holds, these small daily corrections are meaningless. From a short-term perspective, I don’t see any major issues.

Individual Stocks: Long-Term Logic Holds, Add If You Can

A few key long-term holdings:
Meituan, JD.com, Alibaba, AAC Technologies—I personally think they’re still worth adding to. Especially Alibaba and JD.com—the logic is clear, the trend isn’t broken. Meituan’s pace is a bit slower, but the direction is right. As for AAC, our earlier position setup was quite good, and it’s still within the plan. Long-term plays aren’t about one or two days of ups and downs but the underlying trend extension.

U.S. Stocks: Keep Waiting, No Rush

For U.S. stocks, opportunities will come slowly.

Tesla has finally started correcting—this wave isn’t early, but it’s timely.

NVIDIA—I think the correction isn’t over yet, so keep watching.

Apple—wait for a correction before considering entry.

Amazon—already entered at 217, and the pace is relatively stable.

A Quick Summary

Market volatility doesn’t mean the direction has changed. Trump’s "mouth cannon" isn’t new, and the impact isn’t big. What really matters is whether the trend is still intact. Right now, from logic to structure, everything is normal. The best thing to do now is stay calm—when the market gives you an opportunity, dare to act; when it’s time to stay out, be patient. Many say the stock market is like life—I think that’s quite right. Ups and downs are the norm. Only those who stay steady can laugh last.