HK-US Market Review (10.15) Buried? No, it's an ambush!

Dear friends, the market sentiment has been stirred up again by the "tariff war." As we all can see, the market generally believes that this so-called "tariff hike" is more of a gesture before the China-US negotiations, used as a bargaining chip. The formality must be observed, but the actual damage is really limited. This time, we also made a move—charging port fees for American vessels while exempting Chinese-built ships from taxes. Unexpectedly, apart from the "big stick" of rare earths, we now have another new "chokehold" tactic. I actually think this move is brilliant: it shows our stance and gives us the initiative. Demonstrating confidence based on the opponent's strength sends a clear message—don’t mess around; China is not to be trifled with. With negotiations coming up at the end of the month, having more bargaining chips in hand now is clearly more advantageous. The overall logic is sound; the market is just putting on a show, and the script behind the scenes has long been set.

For friends who feel "buried"—that’s not being buried; it’s lying in wait.

After yesterday’s drop, I’m sure many friends are wavering again. You followed my advice to add positions, and now you feel buried? To be honest, I totally understand this feeling, but I must also tell you directly—this is the most common but also the most dangerous mindset in investing. Because you’re using short-term price fluctuations to judge the correctness of your long-term decisions. If the market drops for a day, does that mean your added positions are "buried"? And if it rises for two days, does that suddenly make it a "brilliant move"?

Remember this: Investing is not a one-time deal, and the market is not an exam where a rise today means full marks and a drop means failure. Short-term volatility inherently cannot represent the correctness of a decision. It’s natural to regret not buying at a lower price—everyone wants to buy cheaper and earn more. But if you keep dwelling on this mindset, you’ll only make yourself more anxious and prone to mistakes.

The reason is simple—first, no one can guarantee that buying will rise immediately; second, judging an investment based on one day’s movement is completely meaningless.

The truly mature mindset is—changing "buried" to "lying in wait." I particularly like this term. Because as long as you haven’t sold, the game isn’t over yet. The market is dynamic, and trends take time to materialize. An action that seems "buried" today might turn into a "successful ambush" in a few weeks, while a move that appears "perfectly profitable" today might miss out on even greater gains. Time is the fairest judge in investing.

Back to $Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) : The trend remains; stay calm.

Honestly, the Hang Seng Index’s fluctuations these days are quite normal. My view remains unchanged—look beyond short-term volatility, and with a long-term perspective, you won’t feel so anxious. As long as the overall trend isn’t broken and the market keeps making higher highs, short-term fluctuations are really no big deal. The market will find its own answer; there’s no need to obsess over daily ups and downs. Often, we think the market is "washing us out," but in reality, it’s just filtering people. Those who can stay patient will remain; the impatient will be eliminated.

On individual stocks: I’ve already accumulated enough at low levels.

$MEITUAN(03690.HK) , $JD-SW(09618.HK) , $BABA-W(09988.HK) , $AAC TECH(02018.HK) —these long-term targets we’ve positioned, as I mentioned a couple of days ago—I’ve already accumulated enough at low levels. The logic behind these stocks is sound, the trend isn’t broken, and they’re actually becoming more attractive as they drop. For this kind of phased adjustment, I won’t panic; instead, I’ll use the opportunity to keep adding positions.

US stocks: Wait, the opportunity is not far away.

For US stocks, the pace needs to be slower.
$Tesla(TSLA.US) has finally started to pull back, waiting for the price range.
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)’s pullback, in my opinion, isn’t over yet.

$Apple(AAPL.US) still needs time for the adjustment to end.

$Amazon(AMZN.US) I’ve already built a position at 217; this price level is quite comfortable.

A brief summary:

Don’t let short-term fluctuations derail your direction. Investing has never been about buying and immediately rising or dropping and being wrong. It’s about whether you can stick to a correct logic long enough. The current market may seem volatile, but every step is testing confidence. A short-term "burial" might just be the next phase’s "successful ambush." As long as the logic remains unchanged and the direction is correct, just hold steady—because you’re not buried; you’re waiting for the flowers to bloom.