HK-US Market Review (11.19) Year-end market downturn? Don't be scared by short-term fluctuations, the trend remains unchanged
Dear friends, as the year-end approaches, the market has indeed been a bit sluggish recently, and overall sentiment is relatively poor. But I want to say something honest: short-term sentiment decline does not mean a change in medium- to long-term trends. The data we see, the views of global investment banks, and the actual behavior of capital all indicate that the future direction is still upward.
1. UBS: China's stock market will usher in another bumper year next year
UBS made it very clear in its latest report: continuous development in innovation, multiple favorable drivers still ongoing, and strong medium- to long-term support for the A-share and H-share markets. Their judgment is straightforward: China's stock market will usher in another "bumper year" next year. This is not a slogan but a conclusion drawn after analyzing policies, capital, and industries in detail.
2. Morgan Stanley: Tech competitiveness rebounds, trade pressure eases, and the trend is upward
Morgan Stanley's report logic is also clear: moderate growth in corporate profits, valuations stabilizing at higher levels, China regaining its footing in global tech competition, easing Sino-US trade tensions, and overall upside potential for indices.
They expect: China's stock market will continue to rise in 2026, extending this year's strong performance. In other words, they are looking at a three-year cycle, not today's ups and downs.
3. Insurance capital has "voted with its feet" and continues to increase positions
This is more real than any research report. Data disclosed by the National Financial Regulatory Administration shows that insurance capital's allocation to equity assets such as "stocks + funds" continued to increase in the third quarter. In other words, the most stable and risk-averse capital is now increasing positions. At the same time, central bank data also shows: household deposits significantly shifted in October, and capital began to flow into the market. These are the "real directions" we should watch.
$Hang Seng Index(00HSI.HK) : The trend is intact; short-term fluctuations do not require overinterpretation
The recent correction in the Hang Seng Index is, frankly, just a short-term impact from global macro factors. But as long as you look at the Hang Seng Index from a long-term perspective, you won’t feel anxious: as long as it keeps making higher highs, the trend is intact. There are indeed some uncontrollable short-term fluctuations, but from a long-term perspective, there is no problem at all. This is also why I’ve been emphasizing from the beginning: don’t be afraid of volatility. As long as the trend direction remains unchanged, good opportunities often emerge from pullbacks.
Hong Kong stocks: After macro pressures ease, it’s a buying opportunity
$MEITUAN(03690.HK) , $MEITUAN(03690.HK) , $BABA-W(09988.HK) , $AAC TECH(02018.HK) have been significantly affected by macro factors in this round, but the logic remains intact. Once the market stabilizes, it will be a great buying opportunity. Just follow our established plan and don’t let short-term fluctuations disrupt your rhythm.
US stocks: Continue to "wait for the right price"
I’ve always emphasized one thing about US stocks—never force a trade at an unsuitable price.
$Tesla(TSLA.US) : Remain bearish
$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) : Look for another short opportunity
$Apple(AAPL.US) : Continue holding the 265 short position
$Amazon(AMZN.US) : If it can return to around 200, that would be a very good re-entry opportunity
The overall strategy remains unchanged: Wait for the right price, don’t chase.
A brief summary
The current market condition looks weak, but its essence hasn’t changed.
Investment banks are bullish on the next 1–3 years, insurance capital continues to increase positions, household funds are flowing back into the market, China’s fundamentals are stable and improving, and global macro factors are causing short-term disturbances, but the medium- to long-term direction remains accommodative.
The recent correction in Hong Kong stocks is more of a short-term fluctuation triggered by external factors. But from a trend perspective—the overall direction is still upward, and opportunities still outweigh risks. Stay steady, follow the strategy, and the market will reward the patient.
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