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PostsI originally thought TSMC ($Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)) could be as reassuring as in the past, so I haven't looked at TSMC for quite a while, even before the earnings report.........
But the chart below shows the volatility spread just before the earnings report. I just praised TSMC last week for not showing signs of overheated long positions before the report.However, looking at the chart now, I suddenly realized that longs have been frantically betting on call options in the last three trading days.In the past, when TSMC showed this pattern, it didn't necessarily lead to a stock price drop. Even though, as a general rule, excessive accumulation by longs is almost a standard precursor to a 'sell the news' event after earnings.In the past few instances when TSMC's volatility spread showed a deep negative value, it didn't point to a stock price decline.But this time seems different. Returning to the general trading rule, $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) is currently down 4.2% in pre-market trading.
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