當前總資產規模位於 Top 2%
基於長橋（新加坡）綜合賬戶計算

資產規模

當前收益率位於 Top 2%
基於長橋（新加坡）綜合賬戶計算

收益排行

Heroic Lifesaver

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)I like to look at Nvidia every time I look at the market for general direction and then compare to others like SMH or specific names like Micron, Sandisk (memory) and Alab/COHR/AAOI (networking) to have a rough idea where capital is flowing. At the moment, capital is flowing to healthcare and financials. So the market is defensive as well as anticipating growth. Those are also names that have gone down a lot so it can be taken as a broadening of breadth and henceforth bullish. This can be taken as the thesis if tech picks up in the next few weeks while the names mentioned above holds or moves up as well. Otherwise capital is just moving around. On a side note, July has been historically strong and markets tend to stall around here during mid term (like what we are seeing now) and then pick up towards the end of the year. @Bridge Buzz SG

Selloff is probably just risk off into today’s Fed meeting. Honestly, I think the pitch will be this - Fed will note inflation risks but now the peace deal is firmed up, they believe lower oil will help offset that. This Fed president also strongly believes AI will help lower inflation. So there you go!

The market is too jittery at these levels and will respond to the slightest of hints or narratives. A breather will be good to allow digestion as well as quell fomo and stabilise things.

Meta’s power move Part 2$Meta Platforms(META.US)Continued from Part 1.You look for ‘mercenaries’ who offer you what you need and strike deals with them. He did this by buying compute from Nebius, Coreweave and even Google. It’s like amassing a huge army knowing it carries a huge advantage. Rather than commit to recruiting at large costs, he let these mercenaries shoulder the costs yet enabling him to use them.Now after securing all these supplies and hoarding them, what is next?Now think. Is it really smart to flood the market with supply when you will be affected by that as well? What he is doing is ‘asserting control’. When you have a precious commodity which is in demand (Think OPEC for oil), the market is at your behest. You CONTROL supply and henceforth price. You want to build more compute? Flood the market with supply and suppress the market and buy cheap. You still benefit from selling and yet build infra for the future.You want to constrict supply? Curtail selling and jack prices up when demand is going up. Your profit margins go up.The only way to do this is when you have a majority share in that commodity.Now think again. Is Zuckerberg a novice who ‘overbuys’ compute and now needs to sell excess supply? Or is he positioning as a huge AI compute provider in an upcoming world where AI is everywhere and compute is through the roof?Look at all the hyperscalers’ reports. They are free. Look at the trend. Do they look like cutting back? The upcoming earnings will reveal more.But having said all these, the technicals are stretched and caution still prevails. But narratives are narratives. Look beyond the noise. The price and data sets usually are more indicative.Thanks for reading. Hope that helps and stay safe!

I believe the markets are still winding down from the middle east peace deal and as such ‘safe havens’ such as precious metals and oil stocks are being sold to buy back risk assets into the end of the quarter.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)I use Nvidia as a barometer for the AI sector in general along with others such as AMD, TSM as well as Broadcom. When she sneezes, usually the others follow. At the moment, Nvidia has technically completed what looks like the fifth of a bigger third wave that started in late 2022. I am expecting a fourth wave which might have already started which might take price to at least 188. The low 100s is also a possibility of a deeper pullback which will present as a more attractive value proposition. Hence my decision to keep this as just a placeholder.@Bridge Buzz SG

No surprises that Apple is doing what it did. Raise prices and pass on the cost to consumers whilst trying to maintain their profit margins.

Does it really need a hot CPI number and an on off high school standoff to ignite a sell off? The market can just keep going higher if it wants to and the narrative will shift accordingly. Hilarious actually. Now let’s see what the narratives say when the market rebounds. 🤔😂

Imagine A buying coffee beans from B and C for itself and then decide to sell the same coffee beans to others when it realised it actually can make money from the beans that it does not need (for now). Suddenly A is worth more than B and C? Haha….the market is irrational.

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)As mentioned last week, Gold is my defensive hedge for a high beta tech portfolio in a barbell kind of approach along with other so called hedges such as income yield (I use sukuk instead of bonds for shariah compliance) and conventional energy (I lump traditional oil such as XOM and CVX here which tracks crude oil closer vs GEV and BE which are outright AI energy plays and hence are placed in my tech portfolio). GLD is now hovering above a confluence of two AVWAPs as well as into a fifth wave of the C of a three wave pullback structure. I don’t know what narrative is coming up but price seems to be telling a story on its own and is indicating a rebound is coming up.  Price action will tell if it is a B wave or a fifth wave rally to new highs. @Bridge Buzz SG 

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)- Doji at supportLast week, I mentioned 190 as critical support and how important it is to note how price reacts there. Price came to within a whisker of that on Friday and reached a low of 191.22 on Friday. Two important supports cluster there - the daily 200MA and an AVWAP.  Friday’s price action formed a doji just above them and premarket price indicates a green open and a rebound at hand. Price needs to rebound strongly from here and preferably with volume and a mini 5 wave pattern for a sustainable bounce. A green candle and strong closing above Friday’s high of 195.55 would constitute a morning star and give the bulls hope. @Bridge Buzz SG 

$AMD(AMD.US)Have a look at AMD’s technical picture and price action. Clear five waves up as a fifth wave of another bigger five waves. Exhaustion gap on this mini five waves up. Island cluster of price holding above that gap on declining volume and momentum. As I mentioned many times, technical analysis is not a prediction. It is a quantified illustration of collective human sentiment towards a particular object which is ownership of AMD here.And my read of the sentiment is irrational exuberance. And this sentiment can go on for some time pulling in even more bulls. Be careful. Price is so high, more exit liquidity is required so smart money can keep this going longer. Stay safe! @Bridge Buzz SG

I have already mentioned the risks in the markets earlier and warned that valuations are very high and too stretched despite the massive tailwinds in AI. This selloff looks like the C of a possible bigger A wave so a strong rebound is expected pretty soon.

You can never predict the market. Learn to keep it simple. Listen to price NOT noise or narratives. The trend is your friend. When supports hold, stay. If it goes, trim. Know your levels. Stay safe.

$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US)I am bullish long term on networking for AI which I believe is crucial and key for AI to scale and the focus has obviously switched from copper to optics with credo taking steps to pivot towards optics itself when copper is its strength. Not to say copper will be obsolete as they are still useful in short distances etc. However with CPO being the way forward, optics are here to stay and any dip is a good opportunity IMHO.@Bridge Buzz SG