Optical is quietly the tightest link in the whole AI buildout. The 2026 AI optical transceiver market is heading for around US$26 billion, but 800G output is running 40 to 60 percent below demand, and the choke point is the EML laser. Nvidia already moved to secure supply, committing US$4 billion to lock priority access at Lumentum and Coherent and pushing everyone else past 2027. For investors the read is simple: in a shortage, the names that actually own the laser capacity hold the pricing power, and right now that is a very short list.

Marvell Technology +32%: The AI Networking Play That Just Got a Hyperscaler Endorsement

Marvell's 10% Drop in Context: Hype, Index Flows, and a Risk-Off Day

Intel up 11% on Google's 3M-TPU foundry order. The credibility win for 18A is real, but read the fine print: revenue lands in 2028, leading-edge fab economics only work at scale, and Intel still needs two or three more anchor clients to make foundry profitable. I treat this as a re-rating catalyst, not a fundamentals fix yet.

Memory supercycle, take two. The setup now is different from past cycles. HBM is sold on multi-year contracts to a handful of AI buyers, 2026 capacity is locked, and the shortage may run to 2028. SK Hynix at +186% ytd and a $1T cap is the upstream tell. The risk is the same as always, memory is still cyclical, but the visibility this time is unusually strong.

TrendForce's Memory Mega-Upgrade: Mapping the Winners in a USD 1.28 Trillion Market

Leopold Aschenbrenner's positions are finally out — the latest equity holdings of the Situational Awareness Fund:$878.7M — Bloom Energy $Bloom Energy(BE.US) $724.4M — SanDisk $Sandisk(SNDK.US) $556.1M — CoreWeave $Coreweave(CRWV.US) $401M — Iren Limited $IREN(IREN.US) $389.1M — Core Scientific $Core Scientific, Inc(CORZ.US) $320M — Applied Digital $Applied Digital(APLD.US) $142.2M — Riot Platforms $Riot Platforms(RIOT.US) $104.5M — CleanSpark $CleanSpark(CLSK.US) $62.5M — Solaris $Solaris Energy Infrastructure(SEI.US) $43.9M — T1 Energy $T1 Energy(TE.US) $38.8M — Bitfarms$29.8M — Bitdeer $Bitdeer Tech(BTDR.US) $26.3M — Power Solutions $Power Solutions(PSIX.US) $21M — Corning $Corning(GLW.US) $20.9M — WhiteFiber $Whitefiber(WYFI.US) $20.2M — $AMD(AMD.US) $19.9M — Babcock and Wilcox $Babcock & Wilcox(BW.US) $18.1M — SharonAI $SharonAI(SHAZ.US) $13.1M — ProPetro $ProPetro(PUMP.US) $10.3M — $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH.US) $8.9M — Intel $Intel(INTC.US) $7.6M — Taiwan Semi $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) $6.4M — Hive Digital $HIVE Digital Tech(HIVE.US) $6.1M — $ASML(ASML.US) $5.9M — Micron $Micron Tech(MU.US)1. The most notable change is the substantial new/increased positions in Bitcoin mining stocks and power infrastructure stocks, including CLSK CleanSpark ($104.5M), TE T1 Energy ($43.9M), PSIX Power Solutions ($26.3M), BW Babcock & Wilcox ($19.9M), SHAZ SharonAI ($18.1M), PUMP ProPetro ($13.1M), as well as Bitfarms ($38.8M) and BTDR Bitdeer ($29.8M).2. New or significantly increased positions were established in a number of smaller semiconductor-related holdings: AMD ($20.2M), TSM Taiwan Semi ($7.6M), ASML ($6.1M), MU Micron ($5.9M), the Semiconductor ETF SMH ($10.3M), and INTC Intel ($8.9M).This suggests the fund is taking a more refined approach to specific segments of the AI supply chain — such as advanced-node manufacturing, memory, and equipment. Whereas the fund may previously have held a cautious or hedged stance on semiconductors as a whole, this quarter it has shifted to a partially bullish view on select names. This looks more like a risk rebalancing move than a major directional change.3. The portfolio is pivoting toward a more focused combination of miners + energy + data centers.

NVIDIA Enters the PC Market: Mapping the Winners and Losers

Nine green sessions, then one hawkish Logan comment and the Dow sheds 600. The setup matters more than the headline: with the 10Y rising and the Beige Book flagging Middle East inflation, this is the market repricing rate risk it had been ignoring. Watch if dip buyers show up before Friday's NFP 🧠

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