gedebe

$AMD(AMD.US)

AMD results were above market expectation with US$13.3 billion revenue that even beat Intel revenue at US$15 billion for the 1st time ever. AMD will overtake Intel for good if Intel still lags in its foundry business.

ps: this post is the same as the post in the 3 last days ago which i did not add to my holdings.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)$Qualcomm(QCOM.US)

Qualcomm revenue at US$10.32 billion beat market expectations yet it shares fell 10% due to a weaker forecast for the next quarter earnings. This scenario also happen to ARM after its earnings release, though both stocks recover some ground on Friday.

$Arm(ARM.US)

It is a bad time for technology stocks or it is just a bad earnings? ARM which reported 27% YOY increase of revenue is tumbling at 10+% today alone. While the earning does have some weaknesses like royalty revenue growth at 8% for mobile chip is not as expected by market, generally ARM is doing fine but the current technology stock rout is affecting ARM shares performance.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$AMD(AMD.US)

AMD results was above market expectation with US$13.3 billion revenue that is being projected to beat Intel revenue at next quarter. Currently Intel revenue is US$15 billion. AMD will overtake Intel for good if Intel still losses in its foundry business.

$Palantir Tech(PLTR.US)

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)Palantir, another AI stock victim which stock price fell after forecasting it contract win is only 15% for next quarters instead of 20% its enjoy in this current quarter. Market is so used to see explosive growth in this stock that anything less than that will be punished.

$Apple(AAPL.US) Apple revenue up 12% YOY but market is expecting more on Ipad sales forecast for next quarter. The current earnings are yet to factor in its new Iphone Duo which has some problems. For a company that has not been investing heavily in AI and thus has been shielded by AI investment volatility, it should do better!$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Tesla(TSLA.US)

Context: Tesla still proves that it can benefit from the current high price of gasoline fuel by selling more EV cars and it is also spending less resulting in a free cash surplus of US$1.53 billion. This is surprising as the analyst has expected a massive cash deficit of US$4.92 billion. The market is always in a dilemma, on 1 side, it wants to preserve as much free cash as possible on the other side, having too much free cash can mean having less to invest into AI or other high impact investments. So it needs a good balancing act.

My trade: add more Tesla stocks

Takeaway: Tesla is a US1.4 trillion company and is the most valuable automobile company globally. It has also invested heavily in self-driving software, battery technology, robotics technology and robotaxis. All these have a high potential to outgrow EV car sales.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Apple(AAPL.US)

Context: For being late to join the AI bandwagon, Apple actually saves itself from the recent AI stock rout since it has not spent too much on AI build up. However it sales for Iphone 18 dropped, it China you no longer need to wait to get a Iphone Pro or Pro Max compared to last year where you need to wait 6 to 25 days for Iphone 17 Pro and Pro Max at that time. But Iphone Duo is saving Apple and the wait time in China is now 90 days.

My trade: neutral on Apple stock

Takeaway: sometimes being late is better than being early. But while Apple can count its blessings, the AI world will still punish Apple if it can't catch up. Apple is chasing hard, they are partnering with Google, Meta and Openai, let sit back and watch. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Context: Netflix is yet again down 5% in post market trading after reporting Q3 earnings that match analysts expectations$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US). The underwhelming response was due to Netflix's lack of blockbuster shows. Youtube and other content media are also stealing Netflix viewing time from its audiences. Netflix is trying hard to buck up, it has fired the head film division and replaced the chief content officer with an executive from Disney Television. On top of that, it is retrenching 1000 employees in various departments. The advertisement revenue is still growing at US$2.7 billion but not as fast as they expected.

My trade: buy Netflix

Takeaway: The effort looks promising, we will wait for the earning numbers to prove to us

$Intel(INTC.US)

Context: intel is facing downward pressure again. In the past month, the shares have dropped ~17%. All is not well with its foundry business. Rumor has it that the agreement with Tesla to build Terafab is unravelling and Tesla is considering TSMC as a partner instead. TSMC is also ready to absorb any customer from Intel if Intel can't deliver its own advanced packaging called, EMIB-T. Intel foundry is persistently making losses.

My trade: reduce Intel stock in my portfolio

Takeaway: All eyes on Oct 29th to see Q3 earnings result whether it can reverse this bearish trend. Lip Bu Tan, please buck up! $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Coreweave(CRWV.US)

Context: let's analyze some of the casualties of last week's AI rout. Nasdaq Composite dropped by 4.5% from the record high just 1 week ago and The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) was worst, falling 11.4% for the same duration. Dell drop ~22% after Barclays downgraded it from Overweight to Equal-Weight and Coreweave the owner of AI datacenters which uses a lot of GPU lost ~25% due to high cost in repaying its debt, both happened last week.

My trade: stay put, but i won't open any new position

Takeaway: Is there light in the tunnel? Yes, if you believe in Jensen Huang who was being interviewed by Bloomberg in Berlin last week, he just brushed this market correction aside asking people to concentrate on the fundamentals instead $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US) .

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Context: Nvidia is partnering with Microsoft to beat Apple in high end notebook space. Instead of GPU, Nvidia is building a CPU that directly competes with Intel and AMD. Microsoft claims that the Nvidia CPU that is installed in Microsoft branded laptops called$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US) Surface Ultra can run twice as fast as Apple Macbook Pro M5 yet still cheaper by US$400. The Ultra cost US$2599.

My trade: Microsoft Surface laptop is only contributing to 2% of Microsoft revenue so I am neutral on it's stock price

Takeaway: Microsoft should consider competing with Apple Macbook Neo which recently was hiked to US$699. They should consider making AI notebooks affordable to the masses. The Ultra pricing is out of reach for many people especially the students.

$Webull(BULL.US)

Context: Webull is being scrutinized by US regulators for it's link to Chinese government. Out of sudden, the US regulator raised the red flag claiming Webull is under the influence of Chinese Communist Party but they did not offered any evidence. Webull claimed that they are not even contacted to defend itself and this claim is unfair to them. Futu, another popular Chinese online which is also listed in Nasdap was fined US$271 million by Chinese regulators but this was totally a different matter, Futu was caught for allowing mainland China to trade overseas stock when they are not allowed to.

My trade: sell Webull. Webull shares fell 17% when this news was announced on Oct 7th.

Takeway: Webull and Futu are profitable fintech companies with creative financial service offerings but the claim by US regulators will drag its share price, stay away until a clearer picture emerges on their ties to CCP.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Microsoft(MSFT.US)

Context: Microsoft needs to work harder to make its AI standout among the crowded AI names. Satya Nadella managed to transform Microsoft from just being a software company to the 2nd largest cloud computing company. However Microsoft AI products were not well received by the consumer. Copilot seemed like a product that Microsoft forced onto others by incorporating it in Windows and Microsoft think that Copilot can be a jack of all trades but really became master of none. Despite having a head start with OpenAI, Microsoft could not fulfill OpenAI's tremendous processing power. On 27 Apr 2026, Microsoft renegotiated OpenAi to end Microsoft exclusivity to OpenAI. OpenAI is now free to find cloud compute platform in Microsoft rivals like Amazon and Oracle. OpenAI is also allowed to sell its services to Microsoft rivals.

My trade: sell Microsoft for now.

Takeaway: Still Satya Nadella is a smart guy that has proven that it can adapt to changes, he must prove it again.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Netflix(NFLX.US)

Context: Netflix subscribers are not expanding as expected this was admitted by Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos recently. In the 2nd quarter results, although revenue went up 13% YOY to US$12.5 billion but crack already appeared, viewing hours just increase a mere 2% and top 10 originals viewership fell 4%. YTD, this stock already fell 25%!

My trade: sell Netflix

Takeaway: The Internet is flooded with more content creators than ever and most of them are free. Take for example the influx of Chinese micro dramas which only last 1-2 minutes have even inspired the western counterpart to copy them, 1st time I ever heard that the west copy the east in film making! Those content creator might not be as profitable as Netflix but if they manage to attract audiences this itself already dent Netflix market share$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US).

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Context: Nvidia wants to use it's GPU for loan collateral . Jensen Huang thinks so highly of his product that he feels his GPU can last as long as 10 years. Electronic product usually depreciate fast and investing in it force the investor to run against time as they need to extract as much profit as possible from it before the product become obsolete. Electronic products productive life span typically are just 3-4 years. Jensen Huang claims that by using GPU as collateral, he can solve the problem of circular financing where Nvidia is investing in company that is buying it's product.

My trade: sell Nvidia

Takeaway: No electronics product can last until 10 years before a better version replaces it, couple with the recent historic high of Nvidia shares on last Friday closing, the signal is dump Nvidia.$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

for the task to buy $3000 on any mutual fund to get $10, which fund is the safest to buy?

$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)Context: Netflix is falling because Youtube is eating it's lunch. Since walking away from the merger with Warner Bros. Discovery 7 months ago, the share rose 10.4% but it has been on the downtrend ever since. Youtube is proving more popular as it's viewership was growing 14.2% in this July versus Netflix which shrunk by 7.8%. This has resulted in major Investment house like HSBC, and Well Fargo downgrading this stock.

My trade: sell

Takeaway: Netflix has endured 2 major falls, in 2011 72% drop and in 2008 37% drop and each time it came back stronger. Coming back this time around looks harder as it need to fight with Youtube which is offering mostly free content. Can Netflix fight back, let's continue watching Netflix!

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

Context: despite being the most valuable company in this world, the valuation of Nvidia is dropping. The forward PE is now just only 17x compare to AMD which is 40x. The low valuation is due to:

1. More in house GPU being developed by the like of Meta and Alphabet. Both companies has successfully launched their own AI chips.

2. The rising cost of memory chip is squeezing Nvidia profit margin by more than 3%.

My trade: observe for any sign of deteriorating profit before selling

Takeaway: Jensen Huang claim that this Nvidia is "incredibly misunderstood" but we prefer Nvidia earnings report to clear this misunderstanding. $Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Intel(INTC.US)

Context: Intel stock is trending higher and it has been shedding some of it's unwanted baggage:

1. Management layer has been reduced to 6 from 12

2. 250 vice presidents have been cut, remaining only 200

3. The workforce has been shrunk to 39,700 and compensation to attrition has fallen 89% to $161 million.

However, the foundry business is still losing billons each quarters.

My trade: I am still bullish on Intel, having confident CEO Lip-Bu Tan has the discipline to bring Intel to another level.

Takeaway: Intel foundry business will need drastic improvement in both technology breakthrough and customers onboarding$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Intel(INTC.US)

context: There are rumor that Sk Hynix going to setup a manufacturing facility in US. Though this will definitely please Trump who is expecting Seoul to fulfill it US$350 billion pledge to invest in US but this does not sit well with the Koreans who view this as selling their country secret in producing High Bandwidth Memory to US. Currently Sk Hynix controls 50% of HBM global production and the US is not a cheap place to set up a manufacturing plant. A good example is TSMC who set up a plant in Arizona just to encounter not just cost overrun from US$12 billion to US$20 billion but also a clashing work culture where the US is more laid back compared to Asians. TSMC estimated that the cost of manufacturing in the US is 2x more expensive than in Taiwan.

My trade: I am still keeping my finger crossed that this deal can go through and Intel is still a good buy

Takeaway: Seoul will need to keep a balance between following the people wish or pleasing Trump in hope of lower US trade tariff.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Intel(INTC.US)

Context: Intel was once the most dominant CPU maker. On Aug 2020, right before dot-com bubble, Intel market valuation stand at US$509 billion and it share was at US$74.88, the highest at that time. Andy Grove was the CEO from 1987 - 1998 and popularized the phrase "Only The Paranoid Survive". But a series of missteps like ignoring Apple request to build a mobile CPU for them citing that the mobile CPU margin is only US$12-15 versus PC CPU margin at US$225, did not have the foresight that GPU will be more usable than CPU and investing too little into it's fab and relying too much on contracted foundry and making them more successful than them, TSMC should thank Intel on this.

My trade: I am still buying on Intel because the above and Intel has woken and is now tirelessly addressing all the shortcomings.

Takeaway: If only Intel listens and follows Andy Grove's advice of being paranoid at all times then they won't have to lick their wound right now. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Wilmar(F34.SG)

Context: During the last El Nino event in 2023-24, Wilmar oil palm production reduced only 1% but the stock fell from SG$3.66 to SG$3.10. The drop was mainly due to an investigation in China in which a palm oil trader cheated a Chinese state own enterprise for US$725 million; Wilmar subsidiary Yihai Kerry Arowana was implicated because they provided the storage where the oil palm was stored. There was another accusation that YKA did not clean up the cargo tankers that transported poisonous industrial chemical but use it to carry edible palm oil. YKA refuted both allegation. Wilmar has also claimed that for the coming El Nino season 2026-27, it will be impacted in palm oil production since up to 80% of their estate is in Kalimantan where long dry spell is expected.

My trade: bearish on Wilmar in 2027

My trade: The prediction of the coming super El Nino usually will drive up plantation stock since the dry spell will limit palm oil production but not all palm oil related stock are the same.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Intel(INTC.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)

$Wilmar(F34.SG)

Context: Wilmar has been accused of causing the haze that is coming from Indonesia. Wilmar has stated that as far back as 2015, it has established a "No Deforestation, No Peat, and No Exploitation" (NDPE) policy. Yet, the haze has never gone away and it has gone bad recently. At that time, Wilmar had also pressured Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK), a listed company in Malaysia by deploying suspend first policy. KLK does not have a zero-deforestation policy at that time and they are one of the sellers of palm oil to Wilmar and together with Wilmar both have large plantation estate in Indonesia. Wilmar has around 154,660 hectares of oil palm in Indonesia and Indonesia is more than half of all their global palm oil land bank.

My trade: bullish on Wilmar

Takeaway: Currently there is no evidence that Wilmar is responsible for the haze in Indonesia.

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Netflix(NFLX.US)