老白不喝酒

Oil prices rebounded after the U.S.-Iran talks, but market caution remains dominant

After the U.S. and Iran held talks this Friday, international oil prices recovered, and market attention on the Middle East situation has significantly increased. Iran explicitly rejected the U.S.'s core demand for "zero enrichment," but at the same time signaled a willingness to continue resolving differences through diplomatic channels, preventing the situation from spiraling out of control for now.

Nevertheless, investor sentiment remains cautious. The market generally believes that any potential escalation between the U.S. and Iran could impact energy supplies from this globally critical oil-producing region, thereby raising the geopolitical risk premium for crude oil prices. This is also an important reason for the short-term rise in oil prices.

However, from a broader time perspective, the fundamentals of the crude oil market remain under pressure. Even with a rebound driven by geopolitical factors, major crude oil benchmark prices may still record a decline overall this week, reflecting the market's ongoing concerns about demand prospects and expectations of ample supply.

Overall, the current oil price trend is more dominated by geopolitical risks rather than a substantial improvement in supply-demand structure. Until the direction of U.S.-Iran relations becomes clearer, the crude oil market may maintain a pattern of high volatility, strong sentiment, and heavy event-driven trading.

This week's U.S. stock market can be summed up in one sentence—"Earnings + Fed, a double stress test."

This week, U.S. stocks officially enter the core phase of earnings season.

Tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Tesla are set to report their results, and their performance will largely determine the short-term direction of the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and even the entire risk asset market.

First, focus on tech giants: AI is the theme, but profits are the key.

The market isn’t concerned about "whether there’s AI"—it’s about:

👉 Can AI actually drive revenue growth?

👉 Are capital expenditures starting to spiral out of control?

For companies like Microsoft and Meta, the focus is on cloud growth and AI commercialization progress.

For Apple, the market is watching whether iPhone sales and service revenue can stabilize.

For Tesla, it’s more about margins, autonomous driving, and whether the future narrative can still justify its valuation.

Second, the macro backdrop: The Fed is the "invisible referee."

This week also brings an unavoidable variable—the Fed’s rate decision.

While the market widely expects no change in rates, the wording will be what truly moves markets.

If the Fed leans hawkish:

➡️ Tech valuations will come under pressure, and even strong earnings may be discounted.

If it leans dovish:

➡️ A "decent" earnings report could be magnified by the market.

That’s why this week, many stock swings won’t be due to earnings alone but rather the combined effect of earnings + macro sentiment.

Third, structural shifts: Divergence will be stark.

This earnings season has one defining feature:

👉 Not all stocks will rise or fall together.

Companies that prove "growth + profitability + cost control" will be rewarded.

Those just hyping AI without delivering profits will be swiftly abandoned.

Defensive sectors and cash-flow-stable firms may become safe havens.

Finally, a summary.

This week in U.S. stocks isn’t about watching the show—it’s about setting the direction:

Earnings validate real corporate profitability.

The Fed determines the valuation ceiling.

Market sentiment dictates short-term volatility.

One takeaway:

This isn’t a confirmation week for a full-blown bull market—it’s a week of survival of the fittest.

Companies that can truly weather cycles will be singled out by the market this earnings season.

As expected, if Trump doesn't stir up trouble on the weekend, it's not Trump. Although the Greenland tariff incident has ended, before the Supreme Court restricts Trump's tariffs under IEEPA, tariffs remain Trump's most important political weapon. Just today, Trump publicly stated that if Canada reaches an agreement with China, all Canadian goods and products entering the U.S. will immediately be subject to a 100% tariff.

This agreement refers to the "strategic partnership" between Canada and China, with its core being cooperation in energy, clean technology, and climate competitiveness. Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market, with a most-favored-nation tariff rate of 6.1%. In return, China will reduce the comprehensive tariff rate on Canadian rapeseed to about 15%. Canadian-produced rapeseed meal, lobster, crab, and peas will not be subject to related anti-discrimination tariffs, at least until the end of this year.

Although there is no clear information from China and Canada now, I estimate that the two countries may react on Monday. Since tariffs have not been directly increased yet, the two countries should at most issue verbal condemnations. However, the market's concern is that if Trump really imposes a 100% tariff on Canada, it is very likely to trigger retaliatory measures from both China and Canada.

Looking back at Bitcoin's data, the current turnover rate during the weekend's low liquidity is normal, mainly due to short-term investors' turnover. The market is still in slight fluctuations. The question now is whether the market will react to Trump's tariffs on Monday. Hopefully, it will just be dismissed as Trump's nonsense. I hope the Supreme Court can define Trump's tariffs sooner.

The chip distribution is still healthy, but we need to wait and see if a more stable support level can form. There's nothing else to say—just hope Trump doesn't go crazy again.

1️⃣ Stock Price and Market Sentiment

Short-term Characteristics

High volatility: Stock prices are mainly influenced by policies, market sentiment, nuclear energy hotspots, and large capital speculation.

News-driven: For example, when tech companies like Meta sign nuclear energy supply agreements, stock prices may rise in the short term.

Investment risks: Short-term investments remain speculative, lacking stable cash flow support.

Long-term Trends

High potential after successful commercialization: If permits are smoothly approved and Aurora Powerhouse becomes operational, long-term stock prices may see significant growth.

2️⃣ Technical R&D Perspective — Nuclear Energy Project Progress

Core Technologies

Small Modular Reactors (SMR) and micro fast reactors (Aurora Powerhouse).

Goal: Clean, reliable, and scalable electricity, especially for remote or high-demand areas.

Progress

Site preparation has been completed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

Advancing NRC permit applications and fuel manufacturing design approvals.

Expected trial operation by 2027–2028.

Technical Risks

Complex and time-consuming permitting processes; engineering or material issues may cause delays.

Innovative technology, but mass production and commercialization remain unverified.

3️⃣ Policy and Industry Perspective — Policy and Market Environment

Industry Opportunities

AI, data centers, and rising electricity consumption → Nuclear energy as a clean baseload power source becomes a focal demand.

Large tech companies (e.g., Meta) signing long-term power supply agreements boost market confidence.

Policy Support

The U.S. government and DOE provide technical and permitting support, with nuclear energy policies becoming more lenient.

Nuclear safety and permitting regulations remain strict, but overall favorable for new nuclear energy enterprises.

Policy Risks

Any regulatory delays or safety incidents could severely impact company permits and market confidence.

Policy and subsidy changes may affect financing and cost structures.

🔹 Summary of Global Trends

Perspective Short-term Mid-term Long-term

Investors High volatility, news-driven High valuation divergence and risk High potential if commercialization succeeds

Technical R&D Innovation, permit progress Pending field validation Scalable if successfully operational

Policy & Industry Policy tailwinds, industry hotspots Monitor regulations and safety Long-term bullish on nuclear demand

✅ Core Assessment: Oklo is a typical high-growth, early-stage innovative company with high short-term risks and investment volatility; long-term potential is evident if permits and projects proceed smoothly.

$Tesla(TSLA.US)$Tesla(TSLA.US) Tesla (TSLA) next week (Jan 13-17)

Expected to fluctuate with upward bias, support at $437-430, resistance at $449-458

Positives:

Robotaxi pilot progress (Austin testing), Cybercab mass production expectations

Trump team's Venezuela oil policy bearish for oil prices, indirectly bullish for EV demand

Analyst target price $452 (highest $800)

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Risks:

Q4 deliveries below expectations (418k units, down 8.6% YoY), institutions cut 2026 forecasts

Overall U.S. stock market correction pressure, volatility rises to 25%

Scenarios:

Rebound (60% probability): Open high without breaking $441, target $453-457

Pullback (40% probability): Open low breaking $435, test $428-424

Watch Monday opening and FSD update, hold short-term with stop loss below $430

🟢 Core news events driving recent gains

✅ Bitcoin extends upward momentum

Bitcoin rose over 1% during Asian trading hours, forming a multi-day uptrend - one of the longest consecutive rallies in recent months.

Prices show potential to break through key resistance levels, possibly replicating previous bullish price structures.

📈 Personal analysis remains bullish on further upside

Analysis suggests Bitcoin could rise another 15% or more, primarily driven by institutional buying.

Some view the Fed's dovish pivot and improved liquidity conditions as long-term supportive factors.

🌐 Altcoins also performing strongly

Assets like Polygon (POL) have seen significant gains recently, though reduced whale activity may slow momentum.

Multiple altcoins show broad upward movement amid improved market sentiment (comprehensive reports).

⚠️ Market context and risk warnings

❗ Trading volume and liquidity

Despite rising prices, spot trading volumes temporarily dropped to low levels, indicating relatively weak market liquidity during the rally.

🟡 Legislative and policy developments

The U.S. CLARITY Act and similar legislation may bring clearer regulatory frameworks - seen as potential future positives, though markets may price in expectations prematurely, causing volatility.

BlockBeats news, January 11th, according to the U.S. Senate schedule, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the structure of the cryptocurrency market and vote on the "CLARITY Act" at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on January 15th. The bill aims to combat fake trading, deceptive trading, and false trading volumes, while mandating proof of reserves, potentially resolving long-standing cryptocurrency regulatory issues.

Analysts point out that if the bill is passed, market manipulation could decrease by 70% to 80%, and institutional funds may flow into the cryptocurrency market more rapidly by 2026.

If the vote passes, the bill will proceed to a full Senate vote, then return to the House for final approval before being sent to President Trump for signing into law.

BNY Mellon has indeed launched tokenized deposit services, allowing institutional clients to conduct 24/7 fund transfers and collateral management via blockchain, marking a key step for traditional banks in accelerating their embrace of crypto infrastructure.

2026 is also the year of optical communication. The global optical module market is expected to grow by 35% annually, with silicon photonics solutions + CPO networks set to double explode.

Below is a list of related targets:

Photonic Integrated Circuit Design (including DSP/electronic chips)

INTC (Intel), AVGO (Broadcom), COHR (Coherent), CSCO (Cisco), NVDA (NVIDIA), LITE (Lumentum), MRVL (Marvell Technology), POET (POET Technologies), NOK (Nokia), MTSI (MACOM Technology Solutions), CRDO (Credo Technology), ALAB (Astera Labs), SMTC (SMTC Corporation), $ZTE(763.HK) (ZTE Corporation)

Silicon Photonics and CMOS Foundries

TSM (TSMC), UMC (UMC), INTC (Intel), GFS (GlobalFoundries), TSEM (Tower Semiconductor), STM (STMicroelectronics), SKYT (SkyWater Technology)

Optical Module Suppliers

COHR (Coherent), LITE (Lumentum), AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics), $CIG(6166.HK) (Cambridge Technology)

EMS (Electronic Manufacturing Services)/Connectors

APH (Amphenol), CLS (Celestica), FN (Fabrinet), JBL (Jabil), $FIT HON TENG(6088.HK) (FIT HON TENG), $TIME INTERCON(1729.HK) (Wai Kee Holdings)

🚀📊 The real "profit engine" of US stocks in the next 5 years has been exposed

This chart provides a very rare and easily overlooked perspective:

Not stock prices, not sentiment, but—the ranking of profit growth expectations for the next 5 years.

The subjects are:

The 25 largest companies by market cap in the US.

And the conclusion is more "extreme" than many imagine.

1️⃣ Three companies with profit expectations far ahead

The top three are not the traditional "stable giants" but a combination of strong cycles × new technologies:

• $AMD(AMD.US): +617%

• $Palantir Tech(PLTR.US): +484%

• $Tesla(TSLA.US): +442%

2️⃣ The second tier: Tech and "tech-like"

The following companies still have strong profit expectations but are clearly in the "understandable range":

• $Broadcom(AVGO.US)

• $Oracle(ORCL.US)

• $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)

• $Microsoft(MSFT.US)

• $Amazon(AMZN.US)

• $Meta Platforms(META.US)

These companies are more like:

Having proven themselves, now continuing to scale up.

Growth still comes from AI, but the slope is not as steep as the first tier.

3️⃣ What this table really tells you is not "which to buy"

But a more important question:

In the next 5 years,

Which companies are in the stage of "qualitative change in profit structure"?

The market will always give these companies:

• Higher fault tolerance

• Higher valuation flexibility

• Longer trend duration

And this is often not judged by short-term news.

If there's only one clue to understand US stocks in the next 5 years, this "profit growth ranking" is more honest than stock price trends.

Who do you think will be the next company to join the "400% profit expectation club"?

📣 Keep tracking how AI, computing power, and automation are changing corporate profit structures, and which companies are at the forefront of inflection points.

If you care about "where profits come from, not how stock prices jump," subscribe and understand the cycle ahead of time.

#Stocks #AI #AMD #TSLA #PLTR #USStocks #EarningsGrowth #Investing #WallStreet