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In our prior piece 'AI's Original Sin: Is NVIDIA the stimulant AI can’t quit?', Dolphin Research argued that the key shift for the AI supply chain in 2025 is the extreme upstream capture of value, which has thrown the system out of balance. This imbalance is reshaping incentives and risk-taking across the stack.With FOMO running high, AI spend keeps climbing, while rivalry among core players has become more explicit. Capital allocations are increasingly concentrated at the top of the chain.As the internet enters the AI era, regardless of how shifting inputs reshape bargaining power along the value chain, one ultimate question remains. After front-loaded investment in heavy capex, deep tech, and top talent with an approx. five-year depreciation cycle, is this ultimately a bubble?

Alphabet - C

Alphabet

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Amazon

Direxion Daily Googl Bear 1x Shares

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GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF

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YieldMax NVDA Option Income Strategy ETF

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T-Rex 2X Long NVIDIA Daily Target ETF

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2026's Harsh AI Question: after bns AI Capex, Where will Returns Come From?

Today’s Key News Recap

RIVN

CRCL

1215 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Sector. MIIT granted the first L3 autonomous driving type approvals to Changan's Deepal SL03 and ARCFOX Alpha S6. The two models, tailored to urban congestion and highway scenarios, will run public-road pilots in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing, marking a move from tech testing to commercial pilots for L3 in China.NBS data show Nov. retail sales of consumer goods at RMB 4.3898tn (+1.3% YoY). That is the lowest monthly growth since 2023 in the post-Covid period...

Rivian Automotive

Circle

First L3 autonomous-driving models approved; retail sales growth retests the lows | Daily News Recap

Broadcom

Conference Minutes

AVGO

OPEN

SOXS

SOXL

SOXX

CP00062

AAPL

COHR

OPENL

OPENW

OPENZ

The following is Dolphin Research's compiled earnings call Trans for Broadcom (AVGO) FY2025 Q4. For our earnings take, please see 'Broadcom: Calling out NVDA, but did the pioneer blink first?'AVGO fell after-hours as management struck a cautious tone during the discussion. Topics included the AI order outlook and progress with new customers and orders.1) AI orders: The total AI backlog for AI-related components and heterogeneous processors (XPUs) topped $73bn, slated for delivery over the next 18 months (six quarters). They then explained...

C3.AI

Opendoor Tech

Direxion Semicon Bear 3X

Direxion Semicon Bull 3X

iShares Semiconductor ETF

Semiconductor

Apple

Coherent Corp.

Opendoor Tech Series A - CW26

Opendoor Tech Series K - CW26

Opendoor Tech Series Z - CW26

AVGO (Trans): Anthropic adds another 10bn;  73bn order is the floor

Financial Analysis

ASIC

BYTED

In the early hours of Dec 12 Beijing time, AVGO released its FY2025 Q4 results after the U.S. close. The quarter ended Oct 2025.1) Overall performance: Revenue was $18.0bn, up 28.2% YoY. This beat the Street's $17.5bn.Revenue rose $2.0bn QoQ, driven by AI-related demand. AI remained the key driver.GPM was 68%. Excluding acquisition amortization and restructuring costs, adj. GPM was 76.6%, down 17bps QoQ...

Ategrity Specialty Holdings LLC

ByteDance

AVGO vs. NVDA: Did the challenger blink first?

AVGO First Take: Revenue and GPM were in line with market expectations this quarter, with growth largely driven by AI. AI revenue reached $6.5bn, up $1.3bn QoQ on increased TPU volume ramp. On an operating basis, excluding acquisition-related amortization and restructuring, GPM was 76.6%, down slightly QoQ. The decline reflects a mix shift toward lower-margin ASIC. For next quarter, the company guided revenue to $19.1bn, above Street estimates, driven by AI. AI revenue is expected to reach $8.2bn (vs. Street $7.0–7.5bn), implying a $1.7bn QoQ increase. Despite a solid print and guide, investors are more focused on progress with new customers and orders for next year. Given the previously disclosed large AI wins, the market is watching the company's growth trajectory into next year and beyond, including whether it can secure additional customers and orders. With Google's Gemini performing well, it offers an alternative compute stack beyond NVIDIA. Investors also expect Broadcom to win share in AI chips, a view reflected in its top-tier valuation. As a result, the focus this quarter is on management's updates and outlook for AI order flow next year and beyond. For more, follow Dolphin Research's subsequent notes and management Trans. $Broadcom(AVGO.US)

Dominion Energy

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Rumors and media chatter had been building for weeks, including reports that Jensen Huang sparred with White House conservatives and warned that H200 sales to China might still be blocked. President Trump nevertheless announced that the U.S. Gov. will allow Nvidia to sell H200 chips to China.Nvidia's peers may also sell chips with H200-class specs to Chinese customers. The permission covers H200-class products only.The latest Blackwell architecture and the next-gen Rubin are not on the list. The U.S. Gov. will impose a 25% levy on each sale. As for Nvidia in Q4...

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TENCENT

Huawei

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Tencent Holdings Limited

TENCENT-R

Tencent

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Hudbay Minerals

Baidu HK SDR 10to1

Tencent HK SDR 10to1

H200 Greenlight: The Breakout Catalyst on NVDA's Path to $6tn?

HOOD

ASET

TILE

1208 ｜Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) The CPC Politburo met on Dec. 8 to discuss the 2026 economic agenda and reviewed the 'Regulations on the Party's Leadership over Law-Based Governance'. It set the tone for next year: fiscal policy to be more proactive, monetary policy moderately accommodative. 🐬 Single Stocks 1) $Robinhood(HOOD.US) Robinhood said in a Sunday blog post...

Robinhood

Flexshares Real Asset

Interface

Politburo sets 2026 economic agenda, HOOD pushes into SE Asia crypto | Daily News Recap

300024

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1203 | Dolphin Research Key Focus: 🐬 Stock 1, $Amazon(AMZN.US) AWS introduced the 3nm process Trainium 3 at the annual conference, which offers over 4 times performance improvement compared to the previous generation, with memory increased by 4 times and energy efficiency improved by 40%. They also announced the development plan for Trainium 4, which will be compatible with NVIDIA chips, and several customers like Anthropic have already adopted this chip. It precisely addresses the pain points of enterprise AI computing cost and energy consumption, potentially challenging NVIDIA's monopoly in the computing power market...

SIASUN

Intel

MediaAlpha

Tesla

Salesforce

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T-Rex 2X Long Apple Daily Target ETF

INTEL-T

Amazon unveils 3nm AI chip; Intel stock surges｜Today's Important News Recap

Marvell

MRVL

The following are the minutes of Marvell Technology's Q3 2026 earnings call. For an interpretation of the earnings report, please refer to &#34;Marvell: Acquisition to Fill Gaps, Is the NVIDIA Alternative Route Almost Complete?&#34; 1. $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) Key Financial Data Review Revenue: Achieved a record $2.075 billion in the third quarter, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 3% and a year-over-year increase of 37%. Excluding the divested automotive Ethernet business, core business revenue grew approximately 6% quarter-over-quarter and 41% year-over-year...

Marvell Tech

Pro Ultra 7-10Yrs

Cambria Global Asset Alloc

Outfront Media

Pampa Energia SA -SPON

Marvell (Minutes): AWS is the first to become Celestial AI's 'core leading customer'

MSFD

MSFU

MSFX

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Marvell Technology (MRVL.O) released its third-quarter financial report for fiscal year 2026 (ending October 2025) in the early morning of December 3rd, Beijing time, after the U.S. stock market closed: 1. Revenue: $Marvell Tech(MRVL.US) reported revenue of $2.07 billion this quarter, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4%, in line with market expectations ($2.06 billion). The quarter-on-quarter increase of $60 million was mainly driven by enterprise networking and carrier business. 2. Gross Margin: The gross margin for this quarter was 51.6%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2%...

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Marvell: Acquisition to Fill Gaps, Is the NVIDIA 'Alternative' Path Becoming a Reality?

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NVIDIA's Computing Chips Exposed Severe Security Issues

NVIDIA Surpasses 4 Trillion USD in Market Cap

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NVIDIA Chips Used in Construction of 100 Data Centers

Daniel Ives Sees Long-Term Prospects for Tech Stocks

Jensen Huang Emphasizes AI's Potential to Drive Economic Growth and Narrow the Tech Divide

NVIDIA faces challenges in China market as customers turn to self-developed chips

Global Semiconductor Industry Revenue Grew by 21% in 2024, Nvidia Takes the Lead for the First Time