BABA-W

After my e commerce business being the 3rd chapter of running businesses of my own. I was invited to participate a SEA about 240 attendees by Alibaba Group. Actually I aim top 5 but turned out got my 19th ranking instead. Not difficult to me but also pretty intensive. That time I always like about. Singapore think I was in the 1st ranking than others. Got a lady who is a MBA holder lost to me due to my past experiences !

Jack Ma teachings.

The Fed decided to increase the interest rate after all. Kudos to Kevin Warsh for showing the Fed’s independence but I fear for his job security.

One rate hke decided unanimously is highly anticipated by the market. Dot plot with 16 out of 18, expectations of further monetary tightening, sending a very hawkish signal. Revaluation of AI companies and rate sensitive sectors like property and bond markets may take the hit. So sit tight, buckle up your safety belt, and bumpy ride ahead.

Personally, I didn’t thought that the stocks fell that much (yet) after the rates announcement. I guess most people are bracing for further hikes too

It looks like the Fed has decided to listen to the market and give them what they want. The Fed is not ‘independent’ after all! If they don’t listen to the president, they listen to the market.

Well looks like it is the same old Fed after all! Haha…..for all the chest pumping and assertions that ‘this Fed’ is different from its predecessors, they are still following what ‘the market’ wants.

The dot plots are kind of redundant. Things can change quickly week to week. But I am still surprised it's a pretty large majority thinking of another rate hike this year. The more effective way to curb inflation is to replace the current POTUS.

The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%, with a unanimous 12-0 vote — the first hike since 2023. The dot plot shows: 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more rate hike this year.

Chairman Wash cited a strong economy, inflation above target, and Middle East tensions as reasons for the unanimous vote.

The next two Fed meetings before year-end are also expected to discuss rate hikes. Another 25-bps increase cannot be ruled out.

The US stock market has already priced in the expectation of this rate hike, with calm market performance.

Frankly speaking, I did not expect the Fed to raise rates. It feels like Warsh is going against what Trump would have wanted. I think we will see more tensions between them very soon 🫢🫣.

Anyway, some good news closer to home. Enough of rate hike.

Databricks and Anthropic are both investing in Singapore! 🇸🇬 ( today news)

Databricks will invest over US$350 million and double its local headcount. It is also partnering with IMDA to train 20,000 people in industry relevant data and AI skills.

Anthropic will open its Singapore office this October, with the investment amount yet to be disclosed. I believe it going to be big one like openAI.

A 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% after three years is late and dangerous. Dots pointing to more tightening while Trump wants 1% creates political pressure. If the Fed overtightens now, it risks breaking credit and triggering a Q4 slowdown.