Goldman Sachs: companies we visited see pricing competition remaining healthy, with 800G optical module pricing decline within single digits in 2027, and 1.6T optical module price to sustain at $700+.
$Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) $Macom Tech(MTSI.US)
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$Corning(GLW.US)
Context: Corning and Verizon signed a multi-billion dollar agreement for over 80 million miles of optical fiber through 2032. The deal supports Verizon's broadband expansion and AI infrastructure needs while boosting Corning's U.S. manufacturing. The deployment is intended to support growing consumer broadband and converged-service demand while expanding broadband access for homes and businesses and building the national long-haul network needed for AI hyperscalers. The agreement will also support the expansion of Corning’s U.S. manufacturing footprint, helping Verizon secure the materials needed for its convergence strategy and long-haul AI corridors.
My Trade: Corning has been in the trade for many years and has established itself as one of the core companies. The dips so far have been buying opportunities, in my opinion.
Takeaway: Corning may not have the biggest runway in terms of share price as compared to some other companies in the similar industry like AAOI. Yet, I do think it's establishment and solid fundamentals/history would make it a great pick for "safer" bets. @Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - P
Incredible growth expected for $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US), and $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) with new GS optical transceiver forecasts.
- Global optical transceiver TAM revised up by 33% / 81% / 115% in 2026-28E.- In 2026/27/28E: optical transceiver market to reach $68B/131B/148B.- Driven by (1) higher rack-level AI server and ASIC AI server shipments and (2) higher estimates on the usage of optical transceivers per Nvidia GPU in rack-level AI servers. - 800G and above segment to increase at a +69% CAGR to reach $45B/108B/130B. - 800G/1.6T shipment volumes at 45M/33M units in 2026E, growing to 49M/71M in 2027E, with 3.2T shipment ramping up to 23M/68M in 2027/28E. - Silicon photonics will account for 60%/80%/80% of 800G/1.6T/3.2T optical transceivers.Just insane growth on top of what most people had forecasted a few months ago. - E
Goldman Sachs: Global Optical Transceiver Shipments
> Shipment & Forecast Revisions: Goldman Sachs raised global optical transceiver shipments for 2026–28E by 21%/31%/31%. For 1.6T and above, shipments were raised by 29%/61%/50% for 2026–28E, driven by higher rack-level/ASIC server shipments, increased optical module usage per GPU, and specification upgrades.> Market Size Projections: The global optical transceiver market is expected to reach US$68bn in 2026E, US$131bn in 2027E, and US$148bn in 2028E. The 800G and above segment is projected to grow at a +69% CAGR to reach US$45bn, US$108bn, and US$130bn respectively.> Volume and Speed Milestones: 800G/1.6T shipment volumes are projected at 45m/33m units in 2026E, growing to 49m/71m units in 2027E.3.2T shipments are expected to ramp up to 23m units in 2027E and 68m units in 2028E.> Technology Adoption: Silicon photonics is expected to account for 60% of 800G, 80% of 1.6T, and 80% of 3.2T optical transceivers.$Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) $Lumentum(LITE.US) $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) - L
Community AI Notes | 5 CLI commands build a watchlist alarm — alerts on anomalies, jumps straight to the quote page
Community member @cyancyan built a watchlist alarm with Claude Code — a move triggers a notification with a related headline attached. What's worth studying: breaking the build into 5 commands, a pattern you can reuse elsewhere.
桥友 AI 笔记 - H
📢 𝐉𝐔𝐒𝐓 𝐈𝐍: $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) Applied Optoelectronics Signs Major Long-Term Houston Leases
Applied Optoelectronics entered into two lease agreements with Hightower Phase II Owner, LLC for industrial buildings in Houston, Texas. Building 4 comprises approximately 356,186 sq ft at 17331 Chimney Rock Road with monthly basic rent starting at $220,835, escalating to $307,582 by Lease Months 109-120. Building 5 spans approximately 737,621 sq ft at 17433 Chimney Rock Road with monthly basic rent beginning at $457,325, increasing to $636,968 by Lease Months 109-120. Both leases have 120-month initial terms, with substantial completion anticipated 16 months post-signing. - P
Silicon Photonics' optical transceiver market share is estimated to exceed 50% by 2027.
$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) VP of Advanced Packaging said today that silicon photonics is becoming the mainstream form thanks to the structural transformation of optical transceivers.He also stated that the real bottleneck for large-scale deployment lies in lasers, optical fibers, fiber optic connectors, and product testing.If I was to pick the "main" players instead of just name-dumping:- $Lumentum(LITE.US) / $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US): InP lasers - CW for SiPh, ELS for CPO, 200G EMLs- $Aehr Test(AEHR.US): SiPh WLBI testing- $Corning(GLW.US): PM fibre, fibre arrays & MPO/MTP connectivity- Sumitomo Electric (5802): InP lasers + substratesObviously you've got a ton of other names from: $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) for InP lasers, $IQE for InP base epi, $BESI for hybrid bonding and $Keysight Tech(KEYS.US) / $Viavi Solutions(VIAV.US) for optical test.Feels like TSMC have been running the same narrative alongside the COUPE roadmap for a while now though.But always good to get some re-confirmations on where everyone's favourite bottlenecks sit / narratives coming from TSMC themselves. - P
With $SIVE, you're paying EXTREMELY premium 2027 multiples for a "what if" scenario.
That is: What if Sivers' $1.2B opportunity pipeline converts into *actual* sales by roughly H2 2027.Whereas with $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) and $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US): you've already got revenue that's sold out, LTAs to 2028-30, shipping today, on 30-50% GMs. No "what if" needed.So either:1. $Lumentum(LITE.US), $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) and even $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) are VERY cheap right now [5-14x 2027 sales].2. Or Sivers is VERY expensive right now [~35x 2027 sales based on my current modelling].I'll share a post later/this weekend for more detailed comments. - D
$Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US)
I will talk about a company in one of the important segments of the AI buildout for the fifth post of this ongoing trade showcase episode.
Much has been mentioned about energy and memory ad being critical for AI. Networking is another bottleneck and is very important for AI to scale.
The company I am talking about is in this supply chain and it provides the optic component of networking which will be crucial in the next phase of the AI buildout with NPO and CPO etc.
Technically, AAOI is in a big decade long cup pattern with price already broken out above the prior ATH of 103.5. Price is now testing these levels and a successful retest will see new ATHs. EW patterns are also leaning towards this being a third wave and the trend looks to favour the bulls.
Fundamentals and Technicals are aligning nicely so this looks like a good name to invest for the long term.
@Captain's Treasure
Trade Showcase: Trade, Show & Earn Rewards! - S
I know everyone’s watching $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) earnings right now…
But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”?So now you have:- $Lumentum(LITE.US) (capacity gone)- $Coherent Corp.(COHR.US) (capacity gone)- Landmark (capacity committed)- $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI.US) (capacity for transceivers)- $Macom Tech(MTSI.US) (not online)- $Semtech(SMTC.US) (limited)I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia?So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players).Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers).Let’s see how they execute.