What's on your mind?
My personal opinion is the bull is still on track and AI is going to keep going to another peak
Decoding the Implied MoveOptions dealers typically price event-driven moves, like earnings, at about two standard deviations. Halve that implied move, and you get a rough gauge of the stock’s daily sw...
Leverage Etf can be too risky for people who cannot predict how the flow of the market is which is 99.99% of most people even with the correct directional trend. It does not compound value in its Etf.
Decoding the Implied MoveOptions dealers typically price event-driven moves, like earnings, at about two standard deviations. Halve that implied move, and you get a rough gauge of the stock’s daily sw...
Hynix looks promising if AI holds, because it’s one of the bottleneck of the business or you can say it has a huge moat. But if AI demands fall, it will free fall a long way…
Decoding the Implied MoveOptions dealers typically price event-driven moves, like earnings, at about two standard deviations. Halve that implied move, and you get a rough gauge of the stock’s daily sw...
EP.25 is a wrap — and 24 of you went all the way to the cap 🙌
Decoding the Implied MoveOptions dealers typically price event-driven moves, like earnings, at about two standard deviations. Halve that implied move, and you get a rough gauge of the stock’s daily sw...
SPCX beats, NFLX misses, Musk merger buzz
U.S. futures are higher, with Nasdaq leading, as AI infrastructure confirmation from overnight results offsets mixed prints elsewhere. Dow closed +1.02% yesterday on healthcare/value rotation while Nasdaq was flat; small caps led. Oil remains elevated near multi-month highs on Middle East shipping risks. Heavy earnings day ahead—$Meta Platforms(META.US) and $AT & T(T.US)esla(TSLA.US) after the close are the key events for AI spend and risk appetite. Premarket: $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) and $SpaceX(SPCX.US) leading gains on volume.★ MOST ACTIONABLE · ▲ POSITIVE · $SpaceX(SPCX.US) $AT & T(T.US)esla(TSLA.US)SPCX reported Q3 revenue of $14.6B (+161% Y/Y), well ahead of ~$12.7B consensus, with net income of $4.4B (vs prior-year loss) and adjusted EBITDA of $8.8B (+306%). Super Intelligence segment drove the beat at $7.6B (+830% Y/Y) on cloud services agreements, Cursor acquisition, and Grok adoption; Connectivity (Starlink) rose 69% to $5.2B with 13.6M subscribers. Capex was roughly in line; nameplate compute reached 1.7 GW. Shares +8–10% premarket.On the call, Elon Musk said special committees at both SPCX and TSLA have been formed to evaluate a potential merger (he is not on either), calling the idea a good one with synergies in AI software, chips, robotics, and connectivity, while noting no agreement or guarantee and that it is not a certainty. TSLA +1–2% premarket ahead of its own print. Other space names (Rocket Lab, Intuitive Machines, ASTS) firmed. This is the clearest near-term reinforcement of the AI infrastructure demand narrative heading into mega-cap earnings; the merger chatter is speculative but keeps the FinTwit “Musk complex / superintelligence” theme active. Full results call Nov. 3 for some peers; watch TSLA guidance and any color on compute/power constraints.★ MOST ACTIONABLE · ▲ POSITIVE · $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) SMCI pre-announced preliminary Q1 FY27 (ended Sep 30) revenue of $18.5–19.5B vs prior guide $14.5–15.5B and Street ~$15B, primarily on AI platform demand. Gross margin raised to 12.0–12.5% from 10.4–10.8%. Shares +11–13% premarket; $Dell Tech(DELL.US) and $Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE.US) also higher. Full results Nov. 3. This is a loud counter-signal after recent AI-debt/credit concerns—demand held through quarter-end. Street models still appear light relative to the new run-rate; margins improved on mix. DOJ overhang remains but is not the immediate driver. Positive read-through for AI server/infrastructure complex into the rest of earnings season.▼ NEGATIVE · $Netflix(NFLX.US) Q3 revenue $12.87B (in line, +12% Y/Y—slowest in ~3 years), EPS $0.87 beat. Operating margin 34.6%. But Q4 revenue guide ~$13.44B missed Street ~$13.5B; Q4 EPS $0.67 vs ~$0.73. Full-year ad revenue forecast cut to ~$2.7B from ~$3B on slower product rollout. FY26 revenue narrowed to $51.1B (low end of prior range, slightly below consensus). Shares –6%+ premarket, near multi-year lows. Co-CEO Sarandos acknowledged need to “do better” on content after recent layoffs and exec changes. Engagement/churn and growth durability remain the open questions; ad miss and soft guide overpowered the beat. Software/consumer growth names sensitive to deceleration signals may see spillover.Today’s Earnings CardOptions pricing elevated moves. After close: $Meta Platforms(META.US) (~±10–11%), $AT & T(T.US)esla(TSLA.US) (~±6–7%), $IBM(IBM.US) (~±7%), $Lam Research(LRCX.US) (~±7–8%), $AT & T(T.US)exas Instruments(TXN.US) (~±7–8%). Before open: $AT & T(T.US), $Abbott Laboratories(ABT.US), $AT & T(T.US)MO, $Danaher(DHR.US), $Nextera Energy(NEE.US), $Phillip Morris(PM.US), $Moodys(MCO.US) and others. $Meta Platforms(META.US) AI capex/guidance and $AT & T(T.US)esla(TSLA.US) margins/guidance are the highest-impact for the AI and growth complex. $Lam Research(LRCX.US) and $AT & T(T.US)exas Instruments(TXN.US) provide semiconductor demand color (positive setup from recent peer strength). Busy week continues; implied moves have historically been exceeded in both directions on some of these names.Analyst ActionsUpgrades/positive: $Northrop Grumman(NOC.US) to Outperform at Baird (PT $675 from $550); $Digitalocean(DOCN.US) to Overweight at Piper (PT lowered); $Intuitive Surgical(ISRG.US) to Buy at Erste; $Clean Harbors(CLH.US) to Buy at UBS; $Zoom Communications(ZM.US) to Outperform at Oppenheimer. BofA raised PTs on storage ($Western Digital(WDC.US) to $800, $Seagate Tech(STX.US) to $1,200).Downgrades: $Netflix(NFLX.US) to Hold at Needham; $Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG.US) to Hold at TD Cowen (PT $32 from $44); $Accenture(ACN.US) to Neutral at Baird. Multiple $Braze(BRZE.US) downgrades to Neutral/Hold after Salesforce acquisition agreement at $47.50/share (stock +50%+ yesterday on the deal).Initiations include $Applied Digital(APLD.US) Buy at Roth, $Robinhood(HOOD.US) Buy at Rosenblatt.Macro / EnergyBrent near $109–110 and WTI near $98–100 after touching five-month highs. Ongoing Hormuz/Gulf of Oman tanker attacks (Iran claims a mine incident), Houthi strikes on Saudi sites, and limited diplomatic progress keep the risk premium elevated. No major U.S. data today (EIA inventories and a Treasury auction later). Fed in blackout ahead of Oct 27–28 meeting. Elevated oil is a headwind for risk appetite if it reaccelerates; healthcare/defensive rotation from yesterday remains a background theme.Other Notes$Intuitive Surgical(ISRG.US) down ~8% despite a beat, on a litigation charge and narrower procedure growth outlook. $Braze(BRZE.US) is a completed M&A event rather than an ongoing catalyst. Speculative small-cap premarket volume (e.g., $Robin Energy - WI(RBNE.US)) is noise unless a clear catalyst emerges. FinTwit focus is on the AI confirmation from $SpaceX(SPCX.US)/ $Super Micro Computer(SMCI.US) versus the soft $Netflix(NFLX.US) guide and oil risk; constructive $Meta Platforms(META.US)/ $AT & T(T.US)esla(TSLA.US) prints would likely extend the AI bid, while misses would reinforce rotation.NFA / DYOR. Not financial advice. Markets can reverse quickly; size positions for your risk tolerance and do your own research.rate hike odd down
Odds of an October hike fell below 15% after Warsh spoke, from about 27% beforeLong-end Treasury yields fell faster than short-end yields as money sought safety in long bondsSmall caps and equal-weigh...
Kevin Warsh is the new Allen Greenspan. I believe the market will be bullish but AI stocks will no longer pump again like we used to see. We will probably see capital rotation but not in the 5 categories listed above. I would like to come up with my new category which is Pharma stocks. AI Will greatly benefit these industries next as it’s implications are vast
Odds of an October hike fell below 15% after Warsh spoke, from about 27% beforeLong-end Treasury yields fell faster than short-end yields as money sought safety in long bondsSmall caps and equal-weigh...
like like like
Odds of an October hike fell below 15% after Warsh spoke, from about 27% beforeLong-end Treasury yields fell faster than short-end yields as money sought safety in long bondsSmall caps and equal-weigh...
Interesting take that bitcoin now moves with interest rates. I’d need to look into it abit more, but if that’s the case it’ll be a great hedge and a good buy to diversify my portfolio
Odds of an October hike fell below 15% after Warsh spoke, from about 27% beforeLong-end Treasury yields fell faster than short-end yields as money sought safety in long bondsSmall caps and equal-weigh...
