Buy buy buy, don’t wait! Gogogo
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Anthropic pays $SpaceX(SPCX.US) $1.25 billion a month for GPUs, and it can walk away with 90 days notice. I spent some time reading on neocloud business models this weekend, and there is a pattern here that explains the split in the AI trade right now.
Model 1: SpaceX is renting short, at as much as three times the long term rate. They are betting GPUs stay scarce long enough that customers keep paying up.Model 2: Neo clouds like $Coreweave(CRWV.US), Nscale and $IREN(IREN.US) are doing the opposite. They lock customers into 5 year take or pay deals at lower prices, and the customer pays even if the racks sit empty.If scarcity lasts, neoclouds like SpaceX win big and those long contracts look cheap. If supply catches up when the hyperscalers' own data centers open in 2027 and 2028, Anthropic gives its 90 days notice and SpaceX is holding GPUs it already paid for.Only one of these models is right. Which one are you betting on?