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Today’s a huge earnings day for three major Chinese players: BYD, Miniso, and Meituan!
Anyone keeping a close watch on these results? 👀
One stock added $442 billion and ten of eleven sectors still closed red. Tonight a brand new Fed chair speaks, and Singapore's factory data quietly says the AI trade is real.
Aug 27 | Dolphin Research watchlist: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) U.S. Jul PCE +3.7% YoY; core PCE +3.3% YoY. Both were in line with expectations.
Real personal consumption expenditures were nearly flat MoM after inflation, signaling a clear cooldown from earlier strength. Inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target.With sticky inflation and signs of softer consumption, policy choices have become tougher for the Fed. After the print, UST yields ticked higher while U.S. equities traded choppy under pressure.The market now looks to commentary out of Jackson Hole from Fed officials. Guidance there could shape the path of rates ahead...0811 Dolphin Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1. Douyin Life Services made Doubao an exclusive hospitality & travel transaction channel effective 00:00 on Aug 10. Hotel orders incur an 11.4% software service fee plus a 0.6% payment processing fee, for a 12% all-in take rate. Previously, Doubao traffic was categorized under Douyin’s organic channel with an 8% blended rate.
Doubao stated there are no paid hotel ads or paid ranking mechanisms, and merchants cannot pay to influence recommendation order.The channel leverages AI search to drive incremental traffic. We will monitor whether the added order volume offsets merchants’ higher channel costs...0728 | Dolphin Focus: Macro/Sector. 1) According to foreign media, Shanghai state-owned firms have begun small-batch production of domestically built immersion DUV lithography systems, with five units planned for this year. The first batch is slated for delivery to SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and CXMT.
Most components have been localized, but certain critical parts still rely on overseas suppliers. After delivery, fabs will require extended line qualification, making large-scale substitution of ASML tools unlikely in the near term.The report catalyzed sentiment across the semiconductor equipment space, but has not been officially confirmed by the companies. Follow-up on delivery and yield qualification progress remains key...Since the open, Alibaba rallied sharply. Beyond a broad rebound in HK stocks, the main catalyst was Alibaba's freshly released Q2 results preview, which included several positives; details below:
1) E-com remains the laggard, with CMR expected to decline by a high-single-digit % YoY; excluding changes in revenue recognition scope, it should be flat to slightly up YoY. Profit is expected to dip slightly YoY.
However, this has been well anticipated, and the sustained share-price weakness has already reflected, if not over-discounted, this setup.2) Cloud was the standout, with next-quarter revenue growth expected to accelerate to Approx. 45%, ahead of the market's just-over-40% pace. While the Qwen model is not yet best-in-class, cloud growth remains strong.Benefiting from a higher MaaS mix and in-house chips, cloud OPM is also expected to improve notably to above 10%, broadly mirroring global cloud peers.3) A secondary positive: next-quarter food-delivery losses are expected to narrow materially to around RMB 10bn. This is consistent with Meituan's Q2 UE trending sharply better, potentially turning positive.Overall, e-com is clearly weakening, while cloud and AI performance continues to improve, even if the foundation model is not an obvious leader. Delivery-war participants are collectively cutting losses. These trends are broadly in line with Dolphin Research and market expectations and do not signal a thesis change.The key point: over the past month-plus, Alibaba's share price fell from around HK$130 to below HK$90, an overshoot in a short window that merits some valuation repair. Looking ahead, medium-to-long-term upside still depends on a modest domestic cyclical turn in H2 and on whether Alibaba's foundation model and chip capabilities can regain industry leadership.$Alibaba(BABA.US) $BABA-W(09988.HK)
0707 | Dolphin Focus: 🐬 Macro/Sector
Global semis have sold off in recent days, though HK and A-share semis edged up today. In U.S. pre-market, Micron and peers are still sliding.Trillion-scale expansion plans by top memory makers have stoked concerns about future overcapacity. Morgan Stanley flagged chip rally momentum peaking, with flows rotating to hyperscalers.Adding Meta’s move to lease idle compute (cf. Dolphin Research: 'Compute too pricey — is Meta flipping the table?') further weakens hardware demand expectations. Prior winners are seeing concentrated profit-taking.Near term, this pressures sentiment across memory and advanced equipment. But the long-term thesis of AI compute scarcity remains intact...0630 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) The National Bureau of Statistics reported this morning that Jun manufacturing PMI was 50.3, up 30bps MoM and back in expansion.
The production index printed 51.4 and new orders 51.2, both improving.Sentiment recovered among large and mid-sized firms, with high-tech manufacturing PMI leading at 53.5.
Only small and micro firms remained in contraction, while input costs continued to decline.The data validate marginal supply-demand improvement in domestic manufacturing, a positive for sentiment in high-end manufacturing and the equipment sector.
However, the recovery in domestic demand remains uneven...
Looks like even an MOU and peace deal amounts to nothing when there are just people who don’t care. Hope peace prevails.
Big week kicking off. Marvell joins the S&P 500 before the bell today, the latest AI chip name to crash the index. But Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair flipped hawkish, the dot plot now flirts with ...
This charade has been going on far too long. There is only so much that the AI trade can carry the market as we move along.
Big week kicking off. Marvell joins the S&P 500 before the bell today, the latest AI chip name to crash the index. But Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair flipped hawkish, the dot plot now flirts with ...
After climbing and pulling back last week, the Singapore stock market may see another adjustment this week.
The situation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has not improved yet. Will there still be opportunities for oil and gold prices? Let's continue to observe this week.
Big week kicking off. Marvell joins the S&P 500 before the bell today, the latest AI chip name to crash the index. But Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair flipped hawkish, the dot plot now flirts with ...
AI chip trade still has plenty of room to run as demand for AI infrastructure keeps growing around the world. Continued spending by hyperscalers and increasing enterprise AI adoption should provide strong support for leading semiconductor companies. Valuations already stretched, future gains will likely depend on companies delivering strong earnings and guidance rather than AI excitement alone
Big week kicking off. Marvell joins the S&P 500 before the bell today, the latest AI chip name to crash the index. But Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair flipped hawkish, the dot plot now flirts with ...
sti index hit all time high 5212 on 18 June 2026.
It achieved this ATH despite the summer world cup lull, that's really commendable. sg market must be looking attractive to the global investors, trend shows up once world cup round of 24 comes around. more good days to come.
Big week kicking off. Marvell joins the S&P 500 before the bell today, the latest AI chip name to crash the index. But Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair flipped hawkish, the dot plot now flirts with ...
And as expected, the US-Iran Peace agreement is once more at stake when the market is closed. I'm not surprised at this point, and with Warsh's hawkish stance on his first FED meeting, the macro concerns have been piling up and putting pressure on the equities. Tech names are selling off the most, while certain staple sectors are still doing decently.
Big week kicking off. Marvell joins the S&P 500 before the bell today, the latest AI chip name to crash the index. But Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair flipped hawkish, the dot plot now flirts with ...
Big week kicking off. Marvell joins the S&P 500 before the bell today, the latest AI chip name to crash the index. But Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair flipped hawkish, the dot plot now flirts with ...
Jun 17 | Dolphin Research Key Watch: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) After a citywide crackdown on 'ghost restaurants' exposed fake storefronts and license mismatches, the Shenzhen Market Supervision Bureau summoned Meituan, Taobao Flash Sale and JD. It ordered comprehensive self-inspections, removal of non-compliant merchants, and on-site verification of offline stores.
The campaign targets gaps in food-safety audits. In the short term, platforms will need to ramp up merchant inspections, raising compliance Opex and putting food-delivery profitability under pressure.Over the longer run, the sector will move away from rough expansion. Platforms will be pushed to tighten merchant onboarding and risk controls...
$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S(HST.SG)
The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.39% to 4,651.59 (at the time of writing), driven by sector-specific sell-offs and macroeconomic uncertainty that overshadowed positive geopolitical news (like the US-Iran ceasefire).
Key Drivers
Tech & Semiconductor Slump:
Tech Heavyweights: Meituan (-4%), Baidu (-3%), and Tencent (-2.5%) lead the decline, alongside drops of over 5% from Bilibili.
Semicons: The chip sector faced intense pressure, with Innoscience and Tianshu Zhixin plunging over 7%, while Hua Hong and Hongguang Semiconductor dropped over 5%.
Fed Uncertainty: Investors are adopting a "sell first, ask questions later" approach ahead of the FOMC's two-day policy meeting—the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
Risk-Off: Fear of a hawkish surprise or delayed rate cuts is driving short-term capital away from risk assets. Conversely, analysts note a neutral tone could trigger a rebound.
Sentiment Over Valuation: Despite the index trading at a historically low valuation (P/B of 2.58x, lower than 88.57% of the past year's levels), negative short-term sentiment is overriding attractive fundamentals as Beijing has recently warned major e-commerce platforms (JD, Alibaba, Douyin, PDD) against false advertising and excessive competition, triggering renewed concerns of crackdown.
Crucial Risks to Watch
Fed Policy Stance: Any aggressive interest rate guidance from Chair Warsh will likely further pressure growth-sensitive tech stocks.
Semiconductor Drag: Continued downward momentum in chip stocks could prolong the index's overall weakness.
@Bridge Buzz SG
0610 | Dolphin Research Focus: 🐬 Macro/Industry
1. The National Bureau of Statistics released May data, showing CPI rose 1.2% YoY, while falling slightly by 0.1% MoM. Core CPI was up 1.1% YoY.Overall consumption is recovering moderately. The MoM weakness was mainly due to a slight rise in food prices, and seasonal declines in service and energy costs post-holiday.A 1.2% YoY growth rate remains within a moderate range, leaving room for accommodative monetary policy. This mild inflation is positive for consumption sector valuation repair and supports the continued implementation of pro-growth policies.The strength of the consumption recovery remains relatively flat, with no significant rebound yet...$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S(HST.SG)
Ticket: HST (SGX)
Index Tracked: Hang Seng Tech Index (30 largest HK-listed China tech companies)
Top exposures: Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, Xiaomi, JD, NetEase, SMIC
Structure: HST is a pure CN new-economy/platform -tech + AI + EV supply chain proxy
Key cyclical drivers:
(1) Fed easing -> weaker USD -> global capital flow into HK/China assets; if USD doesn't weaken -> capital stays in US assets & HST rallies tend to fail/stall
(2) Earnings normalisation after deep margin compression
(3) CN tech trading at much lower multiples -> Valuation gap Vs US tech remains wide
Outlook:
Near term - consensus is that Fed easing is off the table but earnings has some positives (e.g. Tencent). A large green candle with relatively high volume on 2 June is a promising sign for a possible reversal but we have to see if prices can hold for the next few session.
I am currently holding/accumlating this as a satellite growth allocation, pending re-rating/mean reversion of the Chinese tech.
The AI hardware hype is in the early stages. Expect a few new multi trillion dollar companies, and even maybe replace the MAG7. Don't get levy behind!
🇺🇸🇭🇰🇸🇬 Big moves across US, HK, SG markets. Anthropic files S-1, HPE surges 40% AH, Micron crosses $1,000.
0601 | Dolphin Research Watchlist: 🐬 Macro/Industry 1) China’s NEV market May delivery data is out, with Leapmotor, Nio, and ZEEKR posting sharp MoM gains as production and sales sentiment improves. Li Auto and XPeng saw YoY declines in delivery volumes, while BYD’s monthly sales were steady. Performance among leading OEMs is clearly diverging.
The industry is moving from a broad-based rally to structural divergence. This is accelerating the shake-out of weaker capacity and pushing OEMs to optimize product mix and channel strategy.🐬 Stocks 1) $TENCENT(00700.HK): internal projects are moving into deployment, with a WeChat-embedded AI assistant entering the final countdown to launch...