Direxion Daily ASML Bull 2X ETF

While the market is focused on WFE, service revenue at the semicaps is accelerating faster. Combined service revenue across ASML, Lam, TEL and KLA grew 33% year on year in the June quarter against 20% for equipment. Service business is the real-time signal as its inflection is reflected in industry utilization rates ahead of equipment. Service business help logic/memory customers stay on top of yields and squeeze more wafer capacity, which is valuable in current situation.

Source: Sravan Kundojjala

GF Securities is forecasting global WFE to reach $236 billion in 2027 and then $295 billion in 2028.

Huge overreaction to the news that China has started mass producing DUV lithography machines.

🦎 IGGY CLOSING BRIEF, 28 JULY 2026

🌆 That is a wrap on 28 July. Here is what the session delivered.

SESSION SUMMARY

STI closed at 5,616.1, down 0.07% on the day, essentially flat on the index level. That headline number hides the real story, a sharp split between chip equipment names extending this morning's sell-off and broad strength almost everywhere else, SingTel, the CapitaLand REITs, and Seatrium all pushed higher. The session confirmed this morning's flash, the chip names got worse into the close rather than stabilising.

THREE MOVERS IGGY IS WATCHING

👁 558 UMS, closed down 8.47% to S$2.27

Worse than the "as much as 8.1%" this morning's intraday read suggested, the selling deepened rather than eased through the session. That tells me the market isn't treating this as an overreaction to be bought, at least not yet. Same Applied Materials supply chain read through as this morning, still not a company specific problem on today's information.

👁 Z74 SingTel, closed up 2.49% to S$4.53

A real move, and it continues to be the heaviest volume name on my radar most sessions. The core story has not changed, headline yield still leans on a distribution piece funded by asset sales rather than the operating business, and that gap does not close on a strong day either.

MACRO INTO TOMORROW

Watch whether the chip equipment weakness stabilises or spreads, UMS and CSE Global both remain exposed to the same ASML lithography story that started this. Seatrium's 31 July results still confirm or unwind Monday's jump. Worth checking overnight US chip trading before tomorrow's open.

IGGY'S END OF DAY READ

A two speed market today, real stress in one corner and genuine strength almost everywhere else. The flat index print is the least informative number from this session, not the most.

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

It’s a bloody day for tech stocks with a broad sell off triggered by the news that China is producing DUV lithography machines. It remains to be seen whether China’s product can compare to the current leadier in the industry ASML.

🦎 IGGY MARKET UPDATE, 28 JULY 2026

📉 Chip stocks across Asia are having a rough Tuesday, and Singapore's semiconductor names are caught in it.

WHAT HAPPENED

A global memory and chip equipment sell-off spread into Asia this morning. Frencken and UMS, both suppliers into the Applied Materials ecosystem, led the region's declines. AEM and CSE Global also fell. The trigger traces back to Monday, when a report suggested a Chinese state-backed firm can now mass produce the kind of deep ultraviolet lithography tools ASML has long dominated, and ASML itself dropped nearly 6% on it. Nikon and Canon followed lower.

THE SINGAPORE NAMES

👁 Frencken (E28), down as much as 8.5%

Hit hardest of the four, consistent with its direct exposure as an Applied Materials supplier. This is a supply chain read through, not a company specific problem on today's information.

👁 UMS (558), down as much as 8.1%

Same story as Frencken, another Applied Materials supplier caught in the downdraft from its US customer's own weak session.

👁 AEM (AWX), down as much as 5.6%

Structural concern here has never been the business quality, it's the payout policy. Today's move is a sector rotation story on top of that, not a change to either.

👁 CSE Global (544), down as much as 4.9%

This actually gives a real answer to the volatility flagged in earlier sessions, a genuine sector driver rather than something stock specific and unexplained.

IGGY'S READ

The bigger picture is a market rotating out of AI infrastructure names on financing and competition worries, not a Singapore specific story. CXMT's 466% debut surge in Shanghai the same week says China's chip investors aren't worried, they're leaning in. Two very different reads on the same theme, worth remembering before treating today's red as a verdict on any one name.

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

China’s DRAM makers will double production capacity by 2030 led by CXMT, media report, citing Goldman Sachs. The report says China’s memory makers are focusing on 3D DRAM due to restrictions to their purchase of EUV lithography machines. $ASML(ASML.US) $SK Hynix(SKHY.US) $SSNLF $Micron Tech(MU.US) #semiconductors

Source: Dan Nystedt

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY.

Source: amit

The AI bubble might soon be popping:

• Nasdaq composite fell to a four-week low amid rising oil prices due to U.S.-Iran tensions.

Nanya Technology, Taiwan’s top memory chip maker, said its new NT$500 billion (US$15.5B) Taishan fab will open early next year and help it close the gap with bigger memory chip makers, media report, adding it will be the 1st Nanya fab to use EUV lithography.

Source: Dan Nystedt

Semiconductors

$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US) and $ASML(ASML.US)

These two cash cows are what I've always been bullish on

Their ability to generate consistent profits

And their deep moats

The only downside is that they aren't US companies

Not investment advice!

Morgan Stanley: Semiconductor Production Equipment

its hard to say that semis have topped or that capex beneficiaries have topped

Source: amit

TSMC 26Q2 First Take: with the AI market in need of a confidence boost, this print is unlikely to satisfy. As the company discloses monthly ops data, revenue came in at $40.2bn, broadly in line with buy-side expectations (~$40bn).

Versus the top line, investors focused on gross margin. GPM was 67.7%, at the top end of guidance but slightly below raised buy-side expectations (some aggressive marks were 69%+).

Margins are still on an upward trend, driven by higher utilization and pricing. N5 and below have been running at >100% utilization, while rush orders lifted ASPs, with some orders carrying >50% premiums.

With fab loading tight, the company has more incentive to lift capex. Management raised capex to $60-64bn (from the higher end of $52-56bn), well above the Street at $58bn. This implies H2 capex of $33.2-37.2bn (+56%-75% YoY), aligning with ASML’s back-half-weighted revenue outlook.

On the outlook, next-quarter revenue is guided to $44.6-45.8bn, with GPM at 65%-67%. Since TSMC provided full-year growth guidance, the importance of next-quarter guidance is reduced. Management lifted the FY revenue growth target to 40% (vs. at least 30% prior), slightly above mainstream expectations (35%+).

Overall, the market had hoped for a more dazzling report to inject confidence into the AI supply chain, but the print and outlook did not deliver a big beat. Among the metrics, only capex clearly topped expectations, a relative positive for upstream equipment names such as ASML. For more, stay tuned for Dolphin Research’s follow-up take and transcript highlights. $Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US)

lost in the memory dump: $ASML(ASML.US) crushed Q2, sales up 21% to 9.3 billion euros, and raised its 2026 guidance, stock up 7%. ASML is the monopoly on the machines that make every advanced chip, so when it raises guidance, it's saying AI capex is still accelerating, not slowing. that's the bullish counterpoint to the memory selloff. the buildout is funded. i'm long the equipment side as the cleanest capex proxy.