Frasers L&C Tr

Iggy's Journal: Same Overseas Exposure, Very Different Damage

18 September 2026, Evening

Video Release

I used to treat "overseas exposure" as the warning label on a REIT. I don't think that's the sharp question anymore. The sharper one is which overseas bond market is actually setting the discount rate on those overseas properties, because three REITs with foreign exposure just got treated nothing alike.

The Numbers

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust took only a 2.3 percent cut, landing at S$1.71. CapitaLand Ascott Trust and Frasers Logistics and Commercial Trust weren't nearly as fortunate, down 27.5 percent and 27.8 percent respectively. All three REITs hold property outside Singapore. The gap between a 2.3 percent hit and a 27.8 percent one isn't explained by overseas exposure alone.

What separates them is where that overseas exposure sits. Singapore's 10 year bond yield was 2.36 percent. Australia and the UK were both sitting around 5.2 percent, the US around 4.9 percent. A REIT holding assets discounted off a 2.36 percent yield is in a completely different position than one holding assets discounted off a yield more than double that.

My Personal Take

I'm not reading this as a forecast for where distributions go next. What I am taking from it is a reminder that valuation risk can show up through the bond market before anything visibly changes inside the buildings themselves. If you're holding any of these three in a CPF, SRS, or dividend portfolio, the question worth asking isn't "how much overseas exposure," it's "overseas exposure to which bond market." Full breakdown of the country-by-country math is in today's video and on Substack.

📺 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GNdkZP9w4U

📩 Substack: https://investingiguana.com/p/why-singapores-236-bond-yield-is

Not financial advice. Iggy's Forensic Compliance Standards apply.

Cheers, Iggy 🦖

The fickleness of the US Iran diplomacy is the only constant. The oil price and US market flip at every turn of event, causing a lot of volatility. It's amazing we've been able to avoid rate hikes so far and indices are still making record highs. Nonetheless, SGX is still my safe haven for its steadiness.

Historically, August could be a volatile month with some of the heaviest losses occurring in the eight month of the calendar year in the past. However, we actually have strong rebounds to kick off the month, led by the traditional tech companies, with Citadel citing the bullish run for stock market is far from over.

The major indices are going strong and markets that usually support a bull market like the financials are strong as well. Coupled with apprehension and doubt, I am not quite sure the top is in yet. Maybe close but the markets look like its about to take off again.

I think it is a little premature for us to conclude that inflation is not going to be a concern for Singapore as the Middle East war started on 28 Feb.

whatever the CPI, my equal weighted portfolio of banks and REITs keeps me eoughly neutral to these noises. Both happily spitting out dividends for reinvestment.

Singapore core CPI came in lower than expected, smoothing out inflation concerns. However, the lagged economic data of the Middle East conflict has yet to fully factor in, and businesses have already been increasing daily prices of goods & services. With US striking Iranian ships supposedly trying to place mines, the SG market is reacting to the news with the STI down approximately 0.8%.

Inflation subsiding might seem amazing but that also shows the impact of AI and how it might actually reduce the need to spend on services that used to be needed such as software services.